The Adelaide racing carnival winds down on Saturday at Morphettville with an eight race card, highlighted by the showpiece of SA racing, the Goodwood (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (13:00) : Campolina Stud Handicap (75) 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Chase The Horizon (Bet Now: $15.00) on top for me here. Really caught the first up at the Caulfield 1100m behind Miss Vista before being thrown in the deep end in the Wangoom at Warrnambool where nothing went right for the galloper and in the end, the run was very good behind Ulmann. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and remains down in the weights.
Big Danger: 18 So You Too (Bet Now: $2.00) is a talented galloper for the Macdonald/Gluyas yard who ran at this track/distance a fortnight back in the Euclase where he did a mighty job in defeat behind Sweet Sherry. He got a mile back in the run but finished off his race with real purpose to third, beaten under a length. Failed in the Carbine Club at the mile in the Spring but by then he was a tired horse. Looks ready for it now and should measure up.
Long Shot: 24 Eclair Attack (Bet Now: $31.00) is a horse in really good form for the Phillip Stokes at the provincials. His last couple has come at Balaklava, winning two back before running third to surprise winner High Tec. Gets right down in the weights now and gets Craig Williams steering, so he ticks a few boxes.
Race Two (13:35) : National Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Booker (Bet Now: $1.80) had confident market support when debuting down the straight at Flemington and aided by a lovely on speed steer by Andrew Mallyon, the Ellerton/Zahra trained filly proved far too good for her rivals. Up to 1200m looks ideal, she maps well and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 4 Phelps Glory (Bet Now: $14.00) is an above average gelding that resumes for the Phillip Stokes yard. He has only had the one race start, which came in December on the Parks track where he sat on speed and fought on very gamely for a narrow but impressive victory. Looked very good in a trial there a couple of weeks back and I think he has to be respected here despite the rise in depth/grade.
Long Shot: Up to 1200m should suit 2 Tabbing (Bet Now: $31.00). He ran over 1050m here a fortnight back and just did a bit too much work on speed when running fourth. He has won at 1200m previously and looks to map well here, getting over to lead comfortably to my eye. Not sure he can win, but he is over the odds.
Race Three (14:15) : Mittys Port Adelaide Cup 2500m:
Back Me: 1 High Church (Bet Now: $1.90) picks himself here. Loved his effort two back at Caulfield in the Easter Cup before going to the Warrnambool Cup where he was bolting behind the speed and once he got clear air, it was race over and he went on to spank them. With that hard 2350m run under the belt, the 2500m here should be ideal.
Big Danger: 4 Time To Test (Bet Now: $4.20) spanked them on the Parks track two back at 1950m before stepping up to 2400m where he had to make a searcing run out wide and was nabbed near the inside by Goldstream, who had the soft run behind the speed. He should be better off with that run under the belt now and has upside.
Long Shot: 2 Grey Lion (Bet Now: $12.00) could be a big improver here on top of the ground and up in trip. Flopped badly first up in the Easter Cup after being heavily backed before going to the Warrnambool Cup where he was disappointing behind High Church. Third up now, so this is D-Day for him but we know he has the class/quality.
Race Four (14:55) : UBET SA Fillies Classic 2500m:
Back Me: 4 Parthesia (Bet Now: $6.50) goes on top for me in a very tricky and tough race to sort out with confidence. This Darren Weir trained filly comes through the St Leger at Flemington on Anzac Day where she got a mile back in the run but savaged the line late to just miss out on the win. That hard 2800m effort should top her off nicely for this assignment against her own age/sex.
Big Danger: 1 Smart As You Think (Bet Now: $8.00) is a quality filly for the John McArdle yard who was an eye catcher two back in the Auraria before going to the Oaks where she was perhaps ridden a touch too close to the speed and tired late behind Egg Tart. I think ridden a bit more quiet, she will get the2500m no issues and she has class/quality.
Long Shot: 9 Young Hostess (Bet Now: $41.00)is a filly with a bit of sense and timing for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. This filly has won her past two. Broke the maiden two back at Kilmore before taking on the older horses at 2000m at Mornington and she toughed it out very strongly to get a narrow but impressive win. Looks as if she will stay all day, so the 2500m should be okay.
Race Five (15:35) : 7 News Centaurea Stakes 2019m:
Back Me: 4 Have Another Glass (Bet Now: $3.50) is a ripping mare who should be close to peak fitness now third up from a break. Spanked them first up on Easter Monday at Oakbank before racing in the Queen Of The South where she sat on speed and fought on very gamely when second to Amelie’s Star. I think with a more patient steer, she will get the trip with no trouble.
Big Danger: 5 Tidy Prophet (Bet Now: $17.00) could be the big improver here. Worked home okay late two back at Caulfield before racing over the mile here two weeks back where she sat off a slow speed but again was strong to the line behind Royal Rumble. Last time she was at 2000m, she should have won the Kyneton Cup. That reads well for this.
Long Shot: 10 Loveitt (Bet Now: $51.00) is a frustrating mare to follow for the Tony McEvoy yard but keep in mind she did run well in this race last year at bolters odds, in a much stronger edition. Ran over 1500m at Cranbourne last Friday night and wasn’t suited by the tempo. Up in trip looks her go and is down in the weights.
Race Six (16:15) : Hughes Limousine RA Lee Stakes 1600m:
Back Me: 1 Burning Front (Bet Now: $2.70) picks himself here. He is a star for Darren Weir who doesn’t know how to run a bad race. Ran four weeks back in the VOBIS Gold Mile at Caulfield where he controlled things from the front and dominated his rivals to win safely and comfortably. Looks to lead for fun again and he is a tough bugger to get past.
Big Danger: 2 Hooked (Bet Now: $3.10)hasn’t raced for five weeks since taking out the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield where he was given an absolute peach of a ride by Luke Nolen and the horse reacted with a dominant win. Trialled sensationally last Monday and looks spot on to run the mile out off the back of that.
Long Shot: 10 Beluga Blue (Bet Now: $26.00) represents value here at a price. Talented mare that resumed over 1300m on the Parks track three weeks back and was a real eye catcher, warming to the task late to run third to Act Of Valour, who ran well last weekend. Excellent second up record, she’s Stakes performed and should take a power of beating here up in trip.
Race Seven (16:50) : Darley Goodwood 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Black Heart Bart (Bet Now: $3.50) is an absolute beauty for the Weir camp and probably holds the title as the second best horse in Australia behind Winx. He showed tremendous courage to win the Futurity last time out given he was back in the run and stablemate Tosen Stardom had the break, but he lunged and surged to grab him on the peg. Break between runs is no issue given, he goes well fresh, and he did win this race last year. Ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 21 Lucky Liberty (Bet Now: $21.00) is a classy gelding for Henry Dwyer who is a potential Group l horse but he has had some horror luck health wise. Still, there was alot to like about his fresh effort in the VOBIS Sprint when charging home late to run third to Rich Charm. Got a really good second up record and he will be savaging the line late if they go hard.
Long Shot: 15 Kaepernick (Bet Now: $26.00) is a talented yet frustrating sprinter for Team Hawkes. He comes through the McKay over 1100m here a fortnight back and got well out of his ground but savaged the line to just miss out on the third, running third to Karacatis. 1200m off a fast speed looks ideal for this horse and he is Group l class when right.
Race Eight (17:25) : UBET Proud Miss Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Ravi (Bet Now: $3.50) on top for me here. This mare resumed with an eye catching performance in the Sapphire at Randwick behind Secret Agenda before going to the Robert Sangster where she got a mile back but closed off with purpose against the tempo behind the same here, clockign the fastest final splits. This looks a drop in depth and as we know with Team Snowden, they love targeting a race third up.
Big Danger: 7 A Lotta Love (Bet Now: $12.00) stuck on well first up in the VOBIS Sprint behind Rich Charm before going to the Robert Sangster where she was a bit outclassed in a hot mares race behind Secret Agenda. She can perform at a high level as we saw in the Spring, so we know the class is there, and she should be ready fitness wise third up.
Long Shot: 15 Typhoon Jolie (Bet Now: $81.00) could be the big improver here at silly odds. Hasn’t really done a great deal since joining the John Sadler stable, but she does appear to get the lead to herself here, and we know that on her day, she is certainly up to this level, and is drawn out wide, which suits her racing pattern.
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BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Ravi
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VALUE: Race One Number 1 Chase The Horizon
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Leg Two: 1, 2
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 4
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