Flemington is where Melbourne racing takes place on Saturday where the feature race is the Andrew Ramsden Stakes (3200m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (11:45) : Saintly Hall Of Fame Trophy 1400m:
Back Me: 2 Grandioso (Bet Now: $3.20) is an above average youngster for Team Freedman who is two from two. Beautifully placed by the stable during the Wagga Carnival, but he did produce a brilliant finish from a rearward position. 1400m at Flemington looks perfect, he has room for improvement and all you can do is win, which is what he has done.
Big Danger: 3 Indernile (Bet Now: $4.40) is a very god two year old for the Moloney camp who will be winning good races once he puts it all together. Resumed on his home track at Caulfield a fortnight back and closed off nicely behind the talented Kobayashi. That looks a really good form line for this race.
Long Shot: 4 Hecta (Bet Now: $10.00) was kept very safe in the market when debuting on his home track during the Warrnambool Carnival and he didn’t let his supporters down with a tough on speed win under Craig Williams. He was tiring late but he did do all the work at the front and was nearer the inside, which wasn’t the spot to be. 1400m is a little query, but you have to respect the stable.
Race Two (12:20) : Light Fingers Hall Of Fame Trophy (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Divine Quality (Bet Now: $2.15) picks herself here. High class filly for Robbie Griffiths who has kicked off her career with two outstanding wins. Debuted at Bendigo and spanked them despite sitting wide no cover before racing down the straight here where she was given a lovely steer just off the speed and once she presented, it was game over. She can make it three from three.
Big Danger: 3 Moonlites Choice (Bet Now: $7.00) is a talented filly for the Darren Weir camp who looks a definite threat here. She has had two runs back from a spell, both over 1100m at Caulfield. First up run was a ripper with no luck, and then next time out she did race quite flat but I think she was looking for further, which she gets here, so be wary of the third up bounce back.
Long Shot: 2 Wasabi (Bet Now: $21.00) is a filly in really good form for the Ken Keys yard. Resumed on her home track at Mornington and showed great speed to lead all the way before going to Sandown last Wednesday where she again led and just kept going. Gets in really well at the weights after the claim and is drawn to be out of trouble and do her own thing.
Race Three (12:55) : John Miller Hall Of Fame Trophy (84) 1800m:
Back Me: Not many would have missed the first up run of 4 Gallic Chieftain (Bet Now: $3.20) over 1700m on Brierly Day at the Bool. He got badly checked on the home turn when appearing to have plenty to offer and once he got clear, he savaged the line to run third to stablemate Tick Tick Bloom. Really good second up record and up to the 1800m is perfect.
Big Danger: 7 Loving Home (Bet Now: $14.00)is on the quick back up for Chris Waller after racing over 2000m at Caulfield last Saturday where he got back in the run and was racing without much clear air in the straight but still finished off very nicely. Flemington 1800m is perfect, he’s third up and Waller rarely misses when he backs them up seven days or sooner.
Long Shot: 3 Shoreham (Bet Now: $41.00) is back home with Saab Hassan after a stint in Queensland and New South Wales where he ran quite well but couldn’t quite get the job done unlike what he did when Hassan had him to begin with. 1800m is short of his best, but he gets the claim for Stockdale and has class/quality.
Race Four (13:30) : Winx Hall of Fame Trophy 1600m:
Back Me: 4 Spanner Head (Bet Now: $2.40) is a quality filly for the Archie Alexander. Ran at this track/distance on Anzac Day where she had a nice sit just off the speed before getting clear and working to the line nicely but no match for subsequent Group l winner Egg Tart. That filly spanked Spanner Head but she spanked the rest. That looks the right form.
Big Danger: 3 The Passage (Bet Now: $6.00) on top for me in a very tough three year old race to sort out. This gelding had confident market support when racing during the Warrnambool Carnival over 1400m and let down with a powerful finishing burst under Yendall to score a dominant victory. On that effort, he will have no issue with the mile.
Long Shot: 13 Bettyrae Ruby (Bet Now: $61.00) looks the big improver here and a knockout chance at odds. She ran over 2000m last Saturday where she did a power of work from the wide gate and in the end stuck on pretty well I thought despite not getting much room the final 75m. Back to the Flemington mile is perfect and is a definite threat.
Race Five (14:10) : Lloyd Williams Hall Of Fame Trophy 1400m:
Back Me: 4 Now Or Later (Bet Now: $3.70) is a French mare for Qatar Bloodstock who made her Australian debut in the Robert Sangster where the tempo of the race was clearly against her and she couldn’t come on behind Secret Agenda. Up to 1400m second up looks ideal, Flemington should suit and gets the claim for Mitch Aitken.
Big Danger: 11 Sovereign Nation (Bet Now: $6.50) is a hard horse to follow but I think he is a serious contender here. Doesn’t have the best winning strike rate but we know the quality he has and finds a very winnable race here fresh, and his latest jump out was outstanding, as good as you can see from a horse of his profile. Definite market watch.
Long Shot: 10 Inspector (Bet Now: $12.00) bounced back to form with a tough and gritty win over 1400m here a fortnight back where he had a nice run just near the speed and fought on strongly in a bunched finish, which is the query. He does rise in grade but has been Stakes performed and indeed Group l performed this time in, so don’t rule him out.
Race Six (14:50) : Andrew Ramsden Stakes 3200m:
Back Me: 1 De Little Engine (Bet Now: $2.40) does look the safe way to go. On paper, he looked a moral a fortnight back over 2800m here and that is how it panned out for those that took the short odds, with a gun ride, and a tad arrogant, by Ben Thompson, to record a dominant win. Ran a beauty in this race last year and appears a better horse 12 months on.
Big Danger: 6 Refectory (Bet Now: $7.00) will stay all day and is a leading chance here. He won the 4000m marathon at Caulfield two back before racing in the race mentioned above where he got back in the run and closed off with purpose when running second. Remains down in the weights and is proven at a long trip unlike De Little Engine, so he’s a definite threat.
Long Shot: 5 Like A Carousel (Bet Now: $34.00)looks to represent value in a very tricky race. Was a real eye catcher last time out over 2400m at Caulfield where he sat back in the run and closed off quite nicely late behind Boom Time. This is a very weak race and I’m happy to include him despite the fact he hasn’t won for a long time.
Race Seven (15:30) : Hilton Nicholas Straight Six 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Perth visitor who is low flying for the Parnham yard. Won brilliantly two back at Caulfield after doing work outside the speed before racing down the straight here where he ran well but was simply no match for the in form Ellerton/Zahra sprinter Crystal Dreamer. 1200m with cover looks ideal and is the one to beat for mine.
Big Danger: 13 Onerous (Bet Now: $10.00) is the big watch here. Team Hawkes trained galloper that had a stint with Chris Waller and threatened to win a race or two but couldn’t quite go on with it. His jump outs have been quite encouraging and he loves racing at Flemington. Definite watch on the market and in the mounting yard.
Long Shot: 11 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $11.00) is the big watch here. Godolphin galloper for Darren Beadman who has been disappointing in three runs back from a break, the latest in the Gold Sprint at Caulfield behind Rich Charm. Couldn’t have trialled better at Cranbourne last week and he did run okay in this race last year. Big chance on his best form.
Race Eight (16:10) : Archer Hall Of Fame Trophy 2000m:
Back Me: 14 Hursley (Bet Now: $5.00) is on the seven day back up for Chris Waller after racing over 2000m at Caulfield last weekend. Looked in a bit of trouble early on in the straight but he picked up, got clear, and chased hard to nab Overberg right on the line. 2000m and back to Flemington looks an ideal recipe for success, and he has run well on the seven day turnaround previously.
Big Danger: 2 Observational (Bet Now: $9.00) is a horse in ripping form at the moment for the John Sadler yard. He ran over 2350m in the Warrnambool Cup where he ran quite well I thought but he was just simply no match for the electric turn of foot produced by the Darren Weir trained High Church. Back to 2000m and on firmer ground is a big tick for this galloper.
Long Shot: 7 Self Sense (Bet Now: $17.00) has been given a month break since racing over 2400m at Caulfield where he got back in a slowly run race but made up nice ground late behind Boom Time. Form out of that race has been franked via Hans Holbein on Anzac Day here, and Self Sense is a horse who races best on the fresh side, and back to 2000m helps.
Race Nine (16:45) : Carbine Club Handicap (78) 1600m:
Back Me: 9 Steggler (Bet Now: $4.80) for me here in a very strong 78 race. He ran in an identical race at this track/distance a fortnight back where he was heavily backed and did an enormous job in defeat given he was back near last, wide with no cover, yet still loomed to win but his condition just gave out late. Looks to be ready fitness wise and I am happy to be in his corner.
Big Danger: 11 Kellstorm (Bet Now: $4.80) made his Australian debut during the Warrnambool Carnival where he was a slight drifter in the market but despite that, he really attacked the line with purpose and scored a huge win in what looked a handy race. Looks to have enormous upside and gets Ben Allen steering with the claim. Live threat.
Long Shot: 2 Fastnet Latina (Bet Now: $4.80) kicked off his Australian career with four outstanding wins before racing over the mile at Caulfield last time out where he tried hard but had to settle for second to Rhythm To Spare, and that form has been franked via Onpicalo. Flemington mile looks ideal and gets the claim again for Jordan Childs.
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BEST BET: Race Nine Number 9 Steggler
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Malibu Style
VALUE: Race Four Number 3 The Passage
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Leg Two: 4, 11
Leg Three: 2, 4, 7, 11, 14
Leg Four: 2, 9, 11
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