Eight races will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday where it is Roma Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (14:36) : Streaky Bacon Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Lob City (Bet Now: $3.70) is a talented filly that resumes for Simon Miller. This filly debuted before Christmas over 1100m here where she got back in the run but came with a well timed run to draw clear of her rivals for quite a sharp debut victory. Her trial at Lark Hill was okay but I’ll bank on her being a race day filly.
Big Danger: 2 Salubrious (Bet Now: $2.70) resumes for the Luciani camp after a two run prep in the Summer to kick off his career. Debuted at this track/distance and worked home okay before going to Pinjarra where he ran second to the above average The Shoe. Trial win last week was outstanding and he looks to have really come on.
Long Shot: 8 Belle Winter (Bet Now: $81.00) is a chestnut filly on debut for the Fred Kersley yard. She has been given five trials and a couple of preps to prepare her for her first day at the races and though she hasn’t really done a great deal in her trials, she is trained by a master and will carry no weight after the claim. Definite market watch.
Race Two (15:16) : Cabanossi Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Dainty Tess (Bet Now: $3.60) is an absolute beauty for the Dan Morton. Always tries hard and doesn’t know how to run a bad race. She ran over this track/distance a fortnight back where she sat wide throughout and looked gone at the top of the straight but she came again and nearly got the win. If she overcomes the gate, she’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 2 Karlakee Miss (Bet Now: $2.25) is a classy filly for the Durrant/Miller yard who ran at this track/distance last Wednesday where she was hard in the market and didn’t let her supporters down with a comfortable victory, albeit in easier grade. She is low flying this time in, so she deserves a crack at this level.
Long Shot: 4 The Diary (Bet Now: $41.00) is another that deserves a crack at Saturday grade after winning down the straight at Pinjarra last Thursday where he was given a lovely ride near the tempo by Randy Tan and finished best in a driving go. The run prior in maiden grade over 1200m here was impressive and I think he can measure up here.
Race Three (15:55) : Triple Smoked Handicap (66+) 1000m:
Back Me: 5 Brackets (Bet Now: $9.00) is on his last chance for me here, only because it is such a weak race. He has been given a month break since racing at this track/distance when sitting back and failing to come on behind Remember Berlin, who was luckless next start. Form reads well, Pike remains on, draws well…looks his race if he found his best form.
Big Danger: 1 Delicate Miss (Bet Now: $2.60) is a talented mare who is on the quick back up after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where she had support at longer odds and the plunge almost came off but she had to settle for second to Caiparinha. Draws well once again and again gets the claim for Fitzgerald.
Long Shot: 8 Forbidden Planet (Bet Now: $13.00) deserves another crack in town after bolting up last time out over 1100m at Northam. Controlled things from the front end and gave nothing else a look in. Looks to map well here and is proven on wet ground previously, so that box tick gives it a serious chance here.
Race Four (16:32) : Italo Australian Welfare & Cultural Centre Handiap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 12 Ragnar’s Saga (Bet Now: $2.60) goes on top for me here. Former Simon Miller trained gelding that created a decent impression in his first prep, winning quite impressively at his second start before being tipped out. Now with Team Williams and his Lark Hill trial last was very good to the eye.
Big Danger: 8 Captivated Point (Bet Now: $8.00) has been too good for them on his home track at Albany so he deserves a crack in town. He has won his past three, all of which have come at 1200m and each time he has showed very good early toe to put himself in a position. He has failed in town previously but he seems a much better horse this time around.
Long Shot: 1 Big Caroline (Bet Now: $34.00) trialled up well behind the Group l performed State Solicitor before resuming over 1200m at Albany where he got back in the run and closed off okay late in the piece. Think he is looking for a bit further now but he does have a very good second up record. Look for him late.
Race Five (17:08) : John Miller Hall Of Fame Inductee Handicap (72+) 2100m:
Back Me: 1 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $7.50) is running out of chances but I am giving him one more here. He was on the seven day back and up to 2200m from the mile when racing here two weeks back where he got badly held up behind runners when appearing to have plenty to offer and was desperately unlucky. He finds a very winnable race here and with clear running, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 5 Senso (Bet Now: $7.00) looks ready to tackle the 2100m. He was confidently backed when racing over 1800m here a fortnight ago where he had a nice sit just off the speed and presented as if he was going to be a serious threat but his condition just gave out late. Up in distance looks ideal and he has upside.
Long Shot: 8 Saker (Bet Now: $14.00) comes through the same race that Senso contested two weeks back and his effort was quite tidy, getting back near last in the run on the rail and closing off nicely. Bit of a query at the trip first time, but he does look as if he will handle it and is in the right hands to achieve it.
Race Six (17:44) : Lee Steere Family Hall Of Fame Inductee Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Star Glitter (Bet Now: $14.00) is three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where Brad Parnham gave him a ripping steer behind the leader, then shoved into the clear and finished best under hard riding for a dominant win. He can be hard to trust, but now he has that winning feeling, he can go on with it.
Big Danger: 3 Profit Street (Bet Now: $3.90) is a big threat here. He has been outstanding in two runs back from a break, winning first up before racing at this track/distance a fortnight back where he got a mile back in the run and savaged the line to just miss out on picking up Red Paddy. Just needs to overcome the gate to look the winner at some stage.
Long Shot: 12 Detection (Bet Now: $51.00)was 23 days between runs when racing here last Saturday where he had the charmed run in the box seat but despite that, he couldn’t really come on behind Caiparinha. Again draws to get the lovely sit just off the pace and with the run under the belt, he should be better off.
Race Seven (18:19) : D’Orsogna Roma Cup 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Battle Hero (Bet Now: $5.50)started long odds first up in the Northam Stakes but despite that quote, he ran a beauty I thought when third to First Among Equals in a really solid fresh display. Outstanding second up record and he does tend to save his best for Ascot. He’ll take a power of beating here with Pike on board.
Big Danger: 2 Divine Calling (Bet Now: $15.00) is a high class gelding that resumes for the Fred Kersley yard. Returned from a Hong Kong stint in the Summer and created a huge impression first up in the Summer Sprint, showing a dazzling turn of speed. Trialled up well behind Scales Of Justice and he is a bomb when produced fresh.
Long Shot: 6 Durendal (Bet Now: $13.00) also comes through the Northam Stakes where he too was first up and I thought he did a really good job in defeat, closing off nicely from the back and hitting the line with real purpose. Has an outstanding record when produced second up and he draws to get the gun run off the pace here.
Race Eight (18:54) : Western Racepix Ascot Horse Of The Year (1MW) 1600m:
Back Me: Bit of a dartboard job this but I’ve landed with 10 Bevel (Bet Now: $9.00). He ran over 1500m here two weeks back where he was a bit disappointing. Had a nice run off the tempo and came into the race nicely but he couldn’t quite let down. Perhaps looking for further, which he gets here and Pike remains on.
Big Danger: 13 By Decree (Bet Now: $5.50) ran in the same race that Bevel contested a fortnight ago and her effort was very good. She had the box seat run and looked to travel well throughout and she ran well but just lacked the killer punch to go on and win it. Again draws to get a good sit and Autier remains on.
Long Shot: 12 Rich Red (Bet Now: $21.00) resumed after a 155 day spell over 1400m at Northam in a Class 3 where he was a real eye catcher. He got a mile back in the run and closed off with real purpose but his condition just gave out late. He is a second up winner, and while I think he might need one more run, he does have the quality.
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BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Battle Hero
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 1 Dainty Tess
VALUE: Race Six Number 11 Star Glitter
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 8
Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 6, 11, 12
Leg Three: 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Leg Four: 1, 3, 4, 10, 12, 13
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