Group l racing returns to Flemington this Saturday with the $750,000 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) featuring a star studded field. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:25) : The Curragh Racecourse Trophy (90) 1600m:
Back Me: 7 Blendwell (Best Odds: $21.00) can be forgiven for her failure here first up behind Miss Softhands, but was much better last time out at Caulfield when an unlucky sixth to Written, beaten just over three lengths. Third up over the mile looks perfect, gate one and Currie sticks.
Big Danger: 6 Marli Magic (Best Odds: $4.80) was enormous in that Written race also given she was wide no cover for the entire trip yet still kept coming on the line and was only beaten a half length. She gets a lovely weight pull on her rivals here and does run well here.
Roughie: 3 Secret Toy Bizness (Best Odds: $21.00) was specked at odds in the same race and was completely luckless in the straight, going to the line under a hold. She runs well at Flemington and Damian Lane rides the mare better than most.
Race Two (13:00) : International Race Clubs Talindert Stakes 1100m:
Back Me: 3 Weatherly (Best Odds: $4.00) was heavily backed in the Blue Diamond Preview and just had no luck at all when running sixth to Cohesion, beaten 2.7L. He looks a really a good horse, and with better luck here, he can definitely win.
Big Danger: 17 Clockwork Orange (Best Odds: $7.50) debuts here for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She is one of the best bred youngsters in Australia being by More Than Ready out of former champion mare Private Steer. Jump outs have been outstanding, and along with the breeding, she should be kept very safe.
Roughie: 9 Pearl Congenial (Best Odds: $8.00) had two runs during the Spring, both in high quality two year old races, the Debutant at Caulfield and the Inglis race on Cox Plate Day. She has looked good at the jump outs, and on her race day form, she’ll take some beating.
Race Three (13:37) : Auckland Racing Club Trophy (90) 1000m:
Back Me: Going to take a chance on 1 Afleet Esprit (Best Odds: $4.40). She was a very good three year old filly who performed well during the Spring. Resumes here off the back of a jump out where she grabbed Risque under a hold. That’s good enough for me here.
Big Danger: 8 Estaminet (Best Odds: $1.95) was far too good for her rivals when resuming at Moonee Valley last time out, sitting on speed most of the way and kicking on strongly to win comfortably. She looks to have really come on now, trained on the track and McDonald takes over.
Roughie: 9 Scratchy Lass (Best Odds: $13.00) is a talented mare from South Australia who was building up a strong picket fence before defeats at her last two runs during the latter part of the Spring. Could have easily resumed in SA, but stable runs here.
Race Four (14:12) : JRA Trophy (90) 2000m:
Back Me: 11 Pemberley (Best Odds: $2.90) looks the way to go here. He is a talented gelding who stretched out beautifully to win over 1800m here three weeks back. Meets a stronger field here, and despite drawing wide, he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: 2 Golden Mane (Best Odds: $6.00) bounced back to winning form over this trip at Caulfield a fortnight back, slogging it out best in a driving go. Returns to his home track now, Lane sticks and should be there when the whips are cracking.
Roughie: 9 Tuff Host (Best Odds: $6.50) ran sixth in that Golden Mane race, and while some think he was poor, I thought he was pretty good without a great deal of luck. He is a horse who needs to build up momentum, as we saw two back when winning at the Valley, and if that can eventuate here, he can definitely turn the tables on Golden Mane.
Race Five (14:47) : The TAB Vanity 1400m:
Back Me: Going for a bit of value in the shape of 6 Alaskan Rose (Best Odds: $9.50). She resumed over 1100m here and was simply run off her legs behind Heatherly, who bolted up in the Rubiton last Saturday, so the form reads well, she’ll eat up the extra trip and has race fitness on her side.
Big Danger: 2 Perfect Reflection (Best Odds: $2.20) creates plenty of interest here. This unbeaten star from Perth comes to the Darren Weir stable and brings over a last start Group l win over, IMO, the best mare in Australia prior to retiring, Delicacy. One thing we know with Darren Weir runners is that if they have the winning feeling, that doesn’t go away anytime soon.
Roughie: 3 Sacred Eye (Best Odds: $6.00) is a very talented type that resumes for the Hayes/Dabernig yard. She performed very well during the Spring, and her recent jump outs here have been very encouraging. Best form is over further, but watch for market moves.
Race Six (15:25) : CS Hayes Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: The $3.20 on offer for 4 Palentino (Best Odds: $3.30) should be taken up ASAP, because I think he is a $2.50 chance, perhaps shorter. He resumed in the Manfred and was absolutely luckless in the run and went to the line under a hold. Bigger track now and is a Stakes winner at the track/distance. With normal luck, he’ll just about take care of this bunch.
Big Danger: 6 River Wild (Best Odds: $6.00) looks short at the $6 mark, but I think he is a definite threat. He had no right to win last time out at Rosehill, but he was lifted over the line by the form rider in Australia at the moment, Brenton Avdulla. He should lead easily from gate one, Oliver aboard, hard fit and drops 5kg in weight from last start.
Roughie: 2 Bon Aurum (Best Odds: $12.00) also resumed in the Manfred and like Palentino, he was desperately unlucky. Not filled with confidence when the stable say he needs the run, but on that first up effort and his record, he should work home strongly en route to the Guineas.
Race Seven (16:05) : Black Caviar Lightning 1000m:
Back Me: Markets have it down as a two horse race, but IMO, it’s a one horse race…and no, it’s not Exosphere. It’s 1 Chautauqua (Best Odds: $2.50) IMO. I would have been all over Exosphere, because he had been trialling like Black Caviar in Sydney, but the jump out of Chautauqua last Friday…THAT was Black Caviar like. Small field suits and only bad luck has beaten him when racing down the straight. If he gets normal luck, class will get him home.
Big Danger: 5 Exosphere (Best Odds: $2.50) is the star three year old and the rising star of the sprinting ranks. He took all before him during the Spring before going to the Coolmore on Derby Day, and even taking away bias, he looked a tired horse. As stated earlier, his jump outs have been all class, he gets the weight pull on Chautauqua and he has an unbelievable finish on him.
Roughie: I’ve seen worse $81 shots that 4 Va Pensiero (Best Odds: $81.00). He has been an injury plagued galloper, but is classy on his day. He has been in work for a couple of months now, and is sure to be wound up for this, and the trials have been very encouraging.
Race Eight (16:45) : Ascot Racecourse Trophy 1400m:
Back Me: Going to take a chance on 3 Puccini (Best Odds: $9.00). Former star kiwi who had really lost the plot before being sent to Darren Weir mid prep, where he had two runs for the great man, firstly in the Eclipse when second to Casino Dancer before failing in the Villiers. Now he has had a full prep and spell under Weir, I am expecting him to run a cracker.
Big Danger: 10 Dan Zephyr (Best Odds: $4.80) has been flying at the moment, winning two on the bounce, but I will say on both occasions he has had everything go his way, so for mine he is a tad short in betting, but with only 52.5kg and hard fitness, he should prove hard to beat.
Roughie: 15 Divan (Best Odds: $12.00) is a classy up and coming stayer who could well be a Melbourne Cup contender later in the year. He ended his Spring on a bright note with a dominant win over 2000m here on Stakes Day. Stable is going very well at the moment, and despite drawing wide, he’ll get back and charge late.
Race Nine (17:22) : HKJC Trophy 1200m:
Back Me: 4 Henwood (Best Odds: $31.00) for me at some value. He was really good I thought in the Winter without winning, but the form reads well, with the likes of Tried And Tired, Charmed Harmony and Abbasso all in there. His jump out wins have simply outstanding, winning with ridiculous ease, and it is a clear indication to me he is wound up to win fresh. $41 looks silly.
Big Danger: 9 Onerous (Best Odds: $3.50) has been impressive this time, winning two from two, with the latest coming over this course when ridden a treat by Dwayne Dunn to win near the inside, which was the inferior ground. More upside with him here than most, so no reason why he can’t continue the picket fence.
Roughie: 13 Tansy (Best Odds: $10.00) ran at Caulfield last time out and worked home strongly to run second to We’ve Got This. He has run well here previously and with Nick Hall riding, his patient hands will know what to do with this horse.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Chautauqua
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 11 Pemberley
VALUE: Race Nine Number 4 Henwood
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 5
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 10, 15
Leg Four: 3, 4, 5, 9, 13, 14
$50 Investment= 27.77% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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