Racing continues at Ascot this Saturday, where the feature race is the $100,000 Listed Challenge Stakes (1500m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (15:53) : Community TAB Plate 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Our Time Will Come (Best Odds: $2.70) resumes here for Craig Jordan after a very good Spring/Summer prep. Bolted up in a recent Belmont, has the strong race day experience on her side and should prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: 4 Atacama Sky (Best Odds: $1.90) is a debutante for Simon Miller who comes here off the back of a very sharp trial win at Belmont on February 8 over 1000m, running good time and doing it comfortably. Best of the first starters.
Roughie: 5 Hurricane Jack (Best Odds: $26.00) is another first starter, this one for Neville Parnham. He also won a trial on February 8 at Belmont, but the time was over a second slower than Atacama Sky, so I doubt he can beat home that horse, but he should acquit himself well nonetheless.
Race Two (16:33) : Police Fire And Emergency Services Handicap (78+) 1500m:
Back Me: 1 Carry The Nation (Best Odds: $2.80) ran over this track/distance a month back and worked home strongly late when running second to Vengabus, who won again recently to frank the form. Looks much easier here and should really take care of this bunch.
Big Danger: 2 Rebelson (Best Odds: $2.80) is better at 2000m and beyond but he isn’t minding the races over shorter, as we saw a fortnight back over the mile here when running third to Vengabus. He will be strong late and has class on his side.
Roughie: 6 Zarantz (Best Odds: $3.80) resumed over 1400m here three weeks back and worked home okay without setting the world on fire behind Corporate Larrikin. Much better off here and Pike jumping on is a good lead.
Race Three (17:13) : Thanks For Supporting The WA Bush Fire Appeal Handicap (72+) 1800m:
Back Me: 2 Tonto (Best Odds: $1.90) just looks the one here. He resumed in that Corporate Larrikin race mentioned above and worked home strongly late. Second up at 1800m is ideal, Pike on, good gate…looks the one.
Big Danger: 3 Already Famous (Best Odds: $6.50) ran over this track/distance a fortnight back and worked home well to run second to Cougar Nights. That form reads well for this, but the negative is that Pike jumps off to ride Tonto. Nonetheless, a definite winning chance.
Roughie: 4 Bayatorio (Best Odds: $8.50) ran in that Cougar Nights race mentioned above and closed off nicely late for fourth. His best is over further, so you know he will run the trip right out and is a must for exotics.
Race Four (17:50) : Detonator Stakes 1800m:
Back Me: 1 Angola (Best Odds: $7.00) was first up for 468 days when racing over the mile here to run fourth to form galloper Vengabus. How this is a Listed leaves me head scratching, but back to this horse, the booking of Pike is very interesting.
Big Danger: 3 Cougar Nights (Best Odds: $3.60) got a well deserved win last time out over this track/distance, aided by a lovely ride from Jarrad Noske, who remains on. Now the horse has that winning feeling, he can go right on with it.
Roughie: 4 Savanarola (Best Odds: $26.00) has been given a month freshen up since running over 2400m at this track when finishing down the track behind Cougar Express. His best is over further, but he has the form from early on to be a threat.
Race Five (18:25) : SES Handicap 1200m:
Back Me: 1 Let It Slip (Best Odds: $1.95) let down powerfully to win first up in the Magic Millions at Pinjarra, settling off the speed before angling clear and attacking the line with real purpose. Draws gate one here, well weighted after the claim and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 6 Glitterbell (Best Odds: $2.90) brokethrough for a well deserved win two back over 1400m here before going to that race mentioned above where she ran well without much luck when running fourth. She can definitely bounce back here.
Roughie: 3 Celtic Wizard (Best Odds: $151.00) is an interesting type. Fred Kerlsey trained galloper that resumed over the mile here when finishing down the track behind Rosewood Hill. His main aim will be the Derby, so he’ll need the run, but look for him to run on late in the race.
Race Six (19:05) : Bob Tate Handicap (0MW) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Paris Dream (Best Odds: $3.00) ran over 2100m here a fortnight back where he tried hard but had to settle for second to Keysbrook, beaten a length. Back to the mile looks ideal, Pike on, Blinkers back on…ticks the boxes.
Big Danger: 10 Silver Romance (Best Odds: $10.00) has been given a three week freshen up since failing over the mile here behind Muskets At Dawn, beaten seven lengths. He is a much better horse than that, and with Shaun O’Donnell going back on, he can sharply improve.
Roughie: 3 Sandpipers (Best Odds: $31.00) is a handy stayer that resumes after a 133 day break. No trials leading in, so I am suspecting he will need this and a couple of runs under the belt to find his best, but resuming over the mile is interesting.
Race Seven (19:42) : Challenge Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: 4 Blackwood (Best Odds: $6.00), with Perfect Reflection in Melbourne, is now the best three year old filly in Perth. She ran over 1500m here three weeks back and tried hard but couldn’t reel in The Blue Nipper. With a more genuine tempo here, she looks the one.
Big Danger: 8 Cone Bay (Best Odds: $26.00) was given a lovely ride by Kyra Yuill to win over 1200m at Bunbury last Thursday, beating home the older horses, which is never easy for three year olds. Extra trip is a query, but he has upside and talent.
Roughie: 1 The Blue Nipper (Best Odds: $21.00) has won his last two quite well and he drops in weight here and despite the step up in grade i can’t see why he cannot keep the winning streak going. Looks to be at massive value.
Race Eight (20:20) : Lions Club Of WA Handicap (72+) 1200m:
Back Me: 2 Lenience (Best Odds: $11.00) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. He ran in the Scenic Blast three weeks ago and stuck on alright behind impressive winner Red Ora. Big drop in grade here and with luck from the tricky gate, he should prove hard to hold out.
Big Danger: 5 Gigante (Best Odds: $7.00) is on the back up from last Saturday when being quite unlucky when fourth to Secret Nova after getting badly held up in the straight when he had plenty to offer. With normal luck here, he’d go very close to winning.
Roughie: 10 Tiger Pete (Best Odds: $14.00) ran over 1100m here a fortnight back when working home okay late in the piece when running sixth to Regal Commander. Extra trip looks ideal and stable is having a really good run at the moment.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Let It Slip
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 4 Blackwood
VALUE: Race Four Number 1 Angola
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 8, 10
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 12, 14, 15, 16
Leg Four: 2, 5, 8, 9, 10
$50 Investment= 22.22% of the dividend if successful.
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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