Saturday racing returns to Rosehill Gardens this Saturday after a twilight program was run and won the Friday prior. The rail is out three metres this weekend, and with recent wet weather, and the fact they ran a meeting on a heavy track last week, the inside may not be the place to be, so perhaps look for horses who will make their run from roughly 4-5 horses away from the rail and wider.
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Race One (1:10pm) : TAB Place Multi Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Godolphin have said for a while that despite a wonderful start to the two year old season, their best are still yet to be seen on race day. But I think they have a really good one in the shape of Ottoman, (Best Odds: $2.00) who is a daughter of Exceed And Excel. This filly went to the Warwick Farm trials on December 9 and absolutely coasted in, winning by over a length, running fast time and didn’t even get a touch from Bowman. Normal luck and she wins IMO.
Big Danger: Feast For Eyes (Best Odds: $8.00) is a Chris Waller trained colt who has only had the one career start, back in October at Randwick when making up a stack of ground late to run sixth to Pierette, beaten two lengths. He has since been spelled and gone to the trials on December 9 at Warwick Farm where he sat just off the speed then getting the inside run to win the trial under no real pressure from Bowman. He is on his home track now and has had the run and spell under the belt, which is a big advantage.
Roughie: Lightning Rock (Best Odds: $10.00) is a first starter for Gerald Ryan who showed good speed to lead throughout and win his barrier trial on December 9, running good time in comparison to other trials that morning, which is always a good indicator for mine. Stable know a thing or two about juveniles and is on his home track.
Race Two (1:45pm) : Cellarbrations Handicap (72) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet on the program, and possibly Australia this weekend, in the shape of the Team Hawkes runner Kaepernick (Best Odds: $2.30). He probably should have won first up at Gosford, but got wayward when he hit the front and was nabbed on the line. He then had a little break, trialled brilliantly and came out at Wyong on November 27 where he absolutely spanked, winning by 3.5L, but it could have really been double had Tommy Berry got serious. There is plenty to like about this gelding, the stable have taken their time with him, and I think he is the Magic Millions 3YO Classic winner. Take whatever you can here, and take the $7 on offer for him for the Gold Coast feature.
Big Danger: Testashadow (Best Odds: $7.00) worked home well against the bias first up at Kensington before coming here a fortnight back where he looked the winner 200m when sprinting to the lead, but was pipped late by Berry Delicious. He is drawn well here, so hopefully he can sit closer, and being third up, he should be at peak fitness, so I am expecting him to run well.
Roughie: Snitzler (Best Odds: $15.00) trialled really nicely behind Group winner Howmuchdoyouloveme, then resumed at Hawkesbury and led all the way to win impressively and run good time for the program. His two runs last time in were behind Delectation and Inkling, and on both occasions he was far from disgraced. Should get a lovely sit from the gate and both stable and rider are in form.
Race Three (2:20pm) : Drummoned Golf Handicap (95) 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Red Excitement (Best Odds: $5.50) resumes here for Gerald Ryan. This horse really came of age at around this time last year, winning several races in town, in fact three on the trot before being spelled. He has been off the scene since February, but his two trials in preparation for his return to racing have been outstanding, in particular his latest trial on November 25 at Rosehill when running fifth. The four horses that beat him were under pressure, while he was under triple wraps. He has won and placed twice from five first up runs, he’ll appreciate a fast tempo, handles the wet and loves Rosehill.
Big Danger: You’ll Never (Best Odds: $3.80) was a well supported favourite in this grade a fortnight back when fourth to Beauty’s Beast. Punters were let down there, but I think he can be forgiven because he was ridden alot closer to the speed, where normally he is ridden out the back and saved for the straight. The wide draw here will ensure he is ridden cold, and that’s where he shows his best form. Give him another chance.
Roughie: Index Linked (Best Odds: $12.00) resumes for Chris Waller after 11 months away from the track. He was last seen over 2000m at Flemington on January 18 when he beat home a little horse called The Cleaner, who went on to win at Group ll level and was competitive in a Cox Plate. Index Linked has trialled twice to prepare for his return to racing and has been quite good at each trial. Generally needs a run or two find his feet, but the two trials tell me that he could run a cheeky race fresh.
Race Four (2:55pm) : Ranvet Handicap (80) 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Looks to be good speed here, with Dream Empress, Stolen Kisses, Miss Ready and Vanilla Princess all liking to sit handy, so they could set it up for something. I believe that something could be Pretty Uncanny (Best Odds: $10.00) , who has been very consistent this time in, finishing second in her opening two runs before getting the confidence boosting win last time out at Canterbury, aided by a peach ride from Brenton Avdulla, who sticks. She’ll drift back from the draw, hopefully find some cover and look to launch late off the back of the speed.
Big Danger: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $6.50) comes back to her right level here after competing in some good races during the Melbourne Spring. She performed quite admirably there in blacktype company without winning, so I think coming back to her home track, drawn to sit off the good speed, and adding the 3kg claim for gun apprentice Samantha Clenton, on her best form, Kristy Lee looks beautifully placed.
Roughie: Another that will run on very strongly late is Holy Delusions (Best Odds: $5.50), who can be hit and miss at times, but when the race is run to suit, like it was first up when successful, she is a talented mare. She worked home strongly here three weeks back behind Dublin Lass, who has since run and failed, but had no luck, so don’t worry about the form line, because there have been horses from that race who have run well since eg Mamwaazel. She’ll ease back from the wide gate and launch late.
Race Five (3:35pm) : TAB.com.au Plate 1900m: Form Guide
Back Me: I made Off The Rails (Best Odds: $6.50) the best bet on the program here a fortnight back, and he duly saluted albeit narrowly, but this horse has gone to another level this time in, winning two of his three runs and placing on the other occasion. He looked a beaten horse here last time out, but Bowman lifted him and got the bob in the photo finish. Clearly looking for further, and he gets another 400m here. Really keen on him again here.
Big Danger: Magical Stance (Best Odds: $6.00) finished the closest of seconds to Off The Rails in that race here two weeks back, making up good ground from the back to just miss out in a deceptive finish given it looked as if he got the stride in to win. He meets the top tip 1kg better off at the weights, so that will help his chances immensely. Only worry I have with him is 1900m and whether he runs it.
Roughie: The rise to 1900m is definitely going to suit the Paul Perry trained Ghost Protocol (Best Odds: $26.00) who stormed home from the back to win on the Warwick Farm mud on December 10, powering home out wide to win in a race which was quite inferior to what he faces here, but his last three runs have been excellent and he is a horse that won’t mind whatever comes up in terms of the track because he is quite versatile, and will be very strong at the end of 1900m.
Race Six (4:15pm) : Schweppes Handicap 1300m: Form Guide
Back Me: Countryman (Best Odds: $9.50) had two runs during the Winter at Canterbury, running second first up before narrowly winning next time out and then being tipped out. He has had two solid barrier trials to prepare for his return to racing, and I expect him to be very forward in condition here, because last time in, he resumed without a trial, so on that line of thought, I think he’ll prove hard to beat.
Big Danger: Champagne Cath (Best Odds: $4.40) makes her return to racing after a solid Autumn prep, which ended with a failure at stakes level behind Estonian Princess during the Randwick Autumn Carnival. Her two trials leading up to this have been excellent, and she’ll be a tough one to run down provided that the track is not too wet, because her record does show that she is a lethal dry tracker.
Roughie: Single Spirit (Best Odds: $34.00) is a Taree gelding trained by Ross Stitt who resumes here after a successful Winter prep, which saw win a host of country cups, including the Sawtell Cup, Casino Cup and Dubbo Cup. She looked really forward in a recent barrier trial, so I think she is wound up to perform well fresh and Ross Stitt doesn’t send them to town for a holiday.
Race Seven (4:55pm) : Hyland Race Colours Handicap (75) 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: The wide barrier has put me off the top four runners in this field, so I am looking elsewhere and have come up with Encostanati (Best Odds: $8.00). He was very good here first up behind Shiraz, then wasn’t suited by the Kensington track when fourth to Senta De Noche (subsequently stakes placed behind Our Boy Malachi). Encostanati then ran last week at Warwick Farm where he was very god when second to Manu Manu, with that horse controlling the race from the front, which didn’t suit Encostanati, but he still found the line strongly. He’ll get a much stronger tempo here and Bowman takes the ride.
Big Danger: Craftiness (Best Odds: $3.50) was pipped late first up by Religify at Warwick Farm before going to Canterbury and sprinting clear late to record a dominant win. From that Warwick Farm meeting, Craftiness meets Religify 1kg off better for a neck defeat, so I am surprised that he is favourite instead of Religify. Shinn is in white hot form at present, so don’t worry about the gate, and the stable is also flying.
Roughie: Tumult (Best Odds: $17.00) put away an average lot two back at Hawkesbury before running a really good sixth here behind Religify, and was one of only a couple to make up significant ground from the back. He’ll get a good sit from the inside gate and I could certainly entertain him at the odds.
Race Eight (5:35pm) : TAB Rewards Handicap (85) 1500m: Form Guide
Back Me: Vashka (Best Odds: $2.60) is clearly the horse to beat here. He was given a lovely ride by Blake Shinn to lead all the way over 1300m here two weeks back when crunched into odds on. He gave his supporters no cause for concern. This race carries a bit more depth, but this horse is simply flying and the form around him is outstanding, so it’d have to take a pretty good horse to beat him here IMO.
Big Danger: Centre Pivot (Best Odds: $3.80) strung together three really good runs to kick off his prep before going to Canterbury last time out, and despite a betting drift, he absolutely spanked them, aided by another Blake Shinn gem. He is much better than a midweek galloper, so no concerns about him stepping back up to Saturday grade and is on the minimum of 54kg compared to 57kg when winning last start.
Roughie: Specific Choice (Best Odds: $14.00) is a real enigma for Chris Waller, though I will say he did produce some consistency last time in, winning over 2000m at Randwick and placing on another couple of occasions. Looked very good in a recent Randwick barrier trial and the form out of that trial has stood up, with Brettan winning first up at Warwick Farm. I wouldn’t worry about Breakfast In Bed failing badly at Doomben because she did get very fired up in the gates and didn’t have much luck in the run. Specific Choice does race quite well early on in a prep and he finds a really good race to return to the track, plus the fact he is first up at 1500m tells me he is forward in condition.
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BEST BET: Race Two Number 8 Kaepernick
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 11 Vashka
VALUE: Race Six Number 6 Countryman
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 3, 9, 10
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 6, 9, 11, 13, 16
Leg Four: 11, 15
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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