With the absence of Black Caviar from the Futurity Stakes all eyes will be on the 2012 Blue Diamond Stakes for the 2YO’s. Mick Price saddles up the current favourite Samaready who drew well in Tuesday’s barrier draw, whilst one of her main dangers Jimando drew the car park and has drifted in the market. Unlike last year when Sepoy jumped as the odds on favourite i think the race is a lot more open than the market suggests. There looks to be some good each way value in the race. View my Blue Diamond Stakes tips.
Blue Diamond Stakes Form Guide
$250 Blue Diamond Stakes Free Bet
1. General Rippa (5): Son of General Nediym who was himself an early running 2YO winning the 1997 Golden Slipper. General Rippa has had one start for one win taking out the Blue Diamond Stakes Prelude for Colts and Geldings by half a length over favourite Rusambo. Should have come on from that race and be competitive here. Only negative was the race was won almost .4 of a second slower than Samaready on the same day.
Odds: $21
2. Jimando (20): Jimando was the early market favourite for the Blue Diamond until Samaready won last start, he was very impressive on debut last year winning by over 3L at Caulfield in the Inglis Debutants Stakes. He was sent out favourite last start but had excuses as he was pressured in the lead and the winner came from last. Will be jumping from the outside barrier and in a full field will find it hard to cross, before the barrier draw he was right in this but i feel he will be doing too much work early to hold off rivals in the final 100m.
Odds: $31
3. Cambiaso (17): Won the Maribyrnong Trial on debut last year but was disappointing first up this preparation, looked like he would take a lot from the run heading into the Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) although was luckless. Forgive his last run but based on his run in the Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) which was disappointing it looks like he will be unlikely to figure in the placings.
Odds: $61
4. The Travelling Man (2): Ran 4th behind Jimando on debut last year but has come back looking a lot strong this preparation. Won the Blue Diamond Preview (C&G) impressively leading all the way, will be going forward and making his own luck which is a massive bonus in a big 2YO field. One of the chances.
Odds: $11
5. Bush Aviator (10): Tasmanian galloper who won well on debut in the Motors Elwick 2YO Stakes. Has come back to Melbourne for the Blue Diamond which has to be respected, will be up against much harder competition although is bred well for this race and looks to be one of the better outside hopes in the race.
Odds: $31
6. Ferment (4): Won a much easier lead up race than most leading into the Blue Diamond, returned with a disappointing run at Flemington but was better when 3rd in the Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G). Has a tendency to hang out during the race but if he eliminates that this race he is a good place change at odds.
Odds: $81
7. Rusambo (16): Yet to win a race but Darley and Peter Snowden know what it takes to win. Unlucky in the Blue Diamond Prelude (C&G) last start when running 2nd, should improve from that run and i feel is right in this race at very good odds.
Odds: $26
8. Andre Roo Hoo (13): Yet to win and has looked outclassed in easier races. Decent galloper although this will be too tough for him.
Odds: $81
9. No Looking Back (19): Arguably should be heading into the race unbeaten but a scandalous decision in the Magic Millions cost him the race on protest. Expensive yearling and owners will be looking to show he won on merit last start, will be going around anti clock wise for the first time but should be able to handle it. Has drifted in the market due to the barrier draw but that shouldn’t scare punters. Looks to be one of the main dangers to the favourite.
Odds: $13
10. Samaready (8): Even money favourite for the race and looks the obvious horse to beat. Won in a very quick time in the Blue Diamond Prelude (F) and Mick Price has talked her up. She will be right in the finish although at $2 i don’t see there being any value although punters have continued to back her.
Odds: $2
11. Real Stolle (18): Won the Maribyrnong Plate last year although it doesnt look to be that good of a form race heading into Saturday. Has been disappointing this preparation, id be surprised if she finishes in the first half of the field.
Odds: $81
12. Formidable (3): Won well on debut when racing greenly, again raced greenly last start which may have cost her the race in the Chairman’s Stakes. Was beaten over 3L by Samaready last start and it is unlikely she can turn the tables on the favourite although it does look like the strongest lead up race. Good each way claims.
Odds: $15
13. Members Joy (7): Ran well last start behind Samaready when settling at the end of the field, beaten over 5L and like Formidable it looks unlikely she will be able to turn the tables on the favourite. They are likely to ride her cold again and if there is speed on the race she will be the main danger from the back. Place chance.
Odds: $19
14. Applegate (1): Had everyone talking about her when she won the Emirates Airline Plate. Was a noticable drifter last start when beaten close to 10L by Samaready when jumping in the market. I would put a line through that run, she is a much better filly than what we saw last start and at $26 i think she is one of the main dangers to the favourite. Good each way bet.
Odds: $26
15. Mama’s Choice (12): A very well bred filly who won very well on debut last start in the Emirates Airline Stakes. Should be a lot fitter coming into this race and looks to be the horse who could swamp them late to win if there is good speed in the race. Has been supported in betting and looks to be another danger to the favourite.
Odds: $15
16. Armed For Action (11): Won well in the Queen Adelaide Stakes last start in Adelaide, looks to have a lot of upside but at her current odds of $14 i dont think there is any value. Respect must be given though as bookmakers are keeping her safe so there must be some talk that she has very good ability.
Odds: $14
17. Fire Thunderbolt (1EM) (6): Unlikely to get a run, and if he does he will finish in the second half of the field.
Odds: $126
18. Mrs Gray (2EM) (15): Unlikely to get a run.
Odds: $51
19. Pronto Pronto (3EM) (9): Unlikely to get a run.
Odds: $61
20. Al Aneed (4EM) (4): Unlikely to get a run.
Odds: $101
$250 Blue Diamond Stakes Free Bet
Morgan Payne’s (JHR owner/editor) selections:
1: Mama’s Choice
2: Samaready
3: No Looking Back
4: Applegate
Adam Page’s (JHR tipster) selections:
1: Applegate
2: Samaready
3: Mama’s Choice
Ryan Jukes (JHR writer) selections:
1: Cambiaso each way
2012 Blue Diamond Stakes Speed Map
Written by Morgan Payne
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