The first of the Group 1 races on Derby day at Randwick is the TJ Smith Stakes over 1200m. Black Caviar will contest the race and unsurprisingly she is the odds on favourite to win the race at $1.20 with most bookmakers. In what looks to be a one horse race ive done a runner by runner preview on the field.
1. Hay List – Five time group winner who is a very strong sprinter in his own right, was once suggested he could be the horse to break Black Caviar’s unbeaten run but hasn’t been able to go close in his two attempts. A very classy horse but meets Black Caviar again and i doubt he will turn the tables but should figure in the placings.
2. Shoot Out – Two time group 1 winner who resumes after what could be said to have been a disappointing spring campaign after starting fantastically winning the Bletchingly Stakes and the JJ Liston Stakes impressively. Has won all of his starts at Randwick and has been competitive at the distance against lesser competition. Will likely go back against this quality field of sprinters and be hitting the line strongly. Happy to leave him out of my top three as i highly doubt he will be able to match it against this field of race fit out and out sprinters.
3. All Silent – Another two time group 1 winner who was very competitive in his day, ran a very good race in Hong Kong this time last year before resuming in the Manikato Stakes last preparation where he was well beaten by Hay List. He had two more starts where he was very disappointing in the Betfair Stakes where he finished last then improved to run 4th in the Patinack Classic albeit beaten over 6L by Black Caviar. A very honest galloper who may figure in the placings if he runs at his best.
4. Triple Honour – A very talented galloper but doesnt look to be at his best, he is coming off a very disappointing W.A preparation and will be looking for more distance. Cant see him figuring in the race and im happy to leave him out.
5. Shellscrape – Impressive winner of the group 1 Galaxy around this time last year but has failed to win since, faces a much harder task on Saturday but on his best form may be able to place.
6. Demerit – Lightly raced four year old who has been competitive against lesser grade competition last preparation. Jumps into a very good group 1 field on Saturday against the superstar mare Black Caviar and i would be very surprised if he was able to place. Should improve from the one and may be a horse to follow over the Brisbane carnival.
7. Black Caviar – Super star mare who has won eleven races from eleven starts. Doesn’t need any introductions. She will win and win quite comfortably if she runs close to her best. Small query about the Sydney way of running and track condition if it continues to rain.
8. Alverta – A very talented mare who is coming out of an International campaign where she was competitive. Won last years Coolmore Classic and looks to be well rated on Saturday at long odds. Won’t beat Black Caviar but she is definitely one to add to your multiples at big odds.
9. Response – Last start group 1 winner in the Sportingbet Classic at Morphetville, jumps up in class on Saturday against a very talented group of sprinters. One of the lighter raced runners so should improve and on his best form may be able to sneak into the placings.
10. Hinchinbrook – The second of Peter Moody’s runners who has faced Black Caviar at his previous two starts and was comprehensively beaten on both occasions. Cant see him beating her this time but is a good place chance.
11. Crystal Lily – Has faced Black Caviar her last three starts and has continued to get closer the the super star mare only beaten 1.8L last start by her. It’s very hard to see her turning the tables but if there was a horse to do it she looks the one.
Speed: The race doesnt look to have a lot of speed and im guessing a lot of the jockeys will determine their positions depending on where Black Caviar sits. Hay List is likely to go forward and Black Caviar will most likely track him into the race.
Overview: On paper it looks to be a one horse race like the last eleven starts Black Caviar has taken part in, very hard to see her getting beaten.
Selections: Black Caviar, Crystal Lily, Alverta, Hinchinbrook
Written by Morgan Payne
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