Much like the Golden Slipper the BMW Stakes is a headline race in its own right with some of Australia’s best stayers winning the race in previous years including Makybe Diva, Might And Power and Octagonal. This year’s race looks to be a talented field of up and coming stayers mixing it with some seasonal gallopers. View my full preview of The BMW.
1. Zavite – Surprise winner of the Ranvet Stakes a fortnight ago and is a dual group 1 winner who will improve from his last run with the added distance. Although he doesn’t have a good record on dead tracks and has never won third up he ran second in this race last year and loves a fight in the straight will take up the running and be hard to get past. Definitely one to include in your multiples.
2. Hawk Island – Ran an eye catching third in the Ranvet Stakes behind Zavite, steps up in distance here but is yet to win over this trip from four starts in lesser quality races. Draws barrier 5 and will get a decent run in transit although its hard seeing him beating some of these. Place chance at best.
3. Illustrious Blue – English galloper who was brought across for last years Melbourne Cup and has failed to fire since, has had two starts this preparation where he has failed to be competitive but gets to a more suitable distance tomorrow. Drew barrier 3 and will get a good run just off the speed so there should be no excuses. If he is able to return to some of his best form it wouldn’t surprise me to see him in the finish. Place chance at best.
4. Ginga Dude – Ran an okay race last start in a strong Albury Gold Cup, previous to that run he was disappointing in the Australian Cup beaten over 8L. Steps up in distance from those two runs which i don’t helping his chances and looks to be outclassed on recent form. Ran third to So You Think in the spring which shows he has some quality but we are yet to see it this preparation. Prefer to leave out.
5. Mourayan – Lightly raced 5 year old who is likely to go to the front and inject some pace into the race. Hasn’t shown enough to warrant him being in my selections and i would be surprised if he was to figure in the placings. Happy to leave him out of my selections.
6. Descarado – Last years Caulfield Cup winner which is run over the same distance, ran a very strong race last start when he went stride for stride with Zavite to only just be edged out on the line. Meets Zavite half a kilogram better tomorrow and should improve from the run. Has drawn an awkward barrier (7) which doesnt suit his running patten and may be posted wide around the first turn. Prefers the wetter conditions so would have liked some more rain but i wouldn’t forget him due to the fact he hasnt won on a dead track before, if Rawiller is able to get him in a good position he should be right in the finish.
7. Linton – Was very disappointing in last years Melbourne Cup thus sent for a spell, returned this preparation with two moderate runs in the CF ORR Stakes and the St George Stakes but ran very well last start in the Australian Cup where he was only beaten by Shocking. Looks like he is on target for this race and he won the Herbert Power last year over the same distance. Will prefer the dryer conditions and from barrier 4 he should be allowed to ease back to the rear of the field along the rails and will be running on strongly. Under the odds i feel at 5.5/1 but is definitely a major player in the race.
8. Maluckyday – Was sent out as favourite last start in the Ranvet Stakes but conditions didn’t suit due to the weather and speed in the race. Its expected there will be a little bit more pace tomorrow but the huge bonus to his winning chances will be the dryer track. Jumps from barrier 1 and will go to the tail of the field. Ran second in last years Melbourne Cup and a lot of people are saying he will be Australia’s best stayer since Might And Power, tomorrow looks to be perfect for him and i see him being very hard to beat. Top chance.
9. Cedarberg – Lightly raced four year old who has plenty of improvement in him leading into these races, he is proven at the distance only missing a placing once over 2400m. Has drawn barrier 2 and will most likely be let to roll along up front in a race that on paper doesn’t seem to have much speed in it. I don’t think he has the class to win a race of this quality but i wouldnt leave him out of your trifecta’s and first fours. Place chance at best.
10. Extra Zero – Heavily backed last start in the Albury Gold Cup where he ran second behind Paddy O’Reily, Ginga Dude also comes out of the race but meets him much worse in the weights this time. Talented galloper but isnt up to this class. Prefer to leave him out.
11. Laristan –French galloper who has been competitive in handicaps around this distance, went up in class last start in the Australian Cup and wasn’t embarrassed. Should improve from that run and and with some lack may figure in the placings. Place chance at best.
Speed: There seems to be moderate pace in the race and should allow all runners a chance to win, i expect Mourayan to take up the running with Zavite and Cedarberg to trail him in the running. Descarado is likely to sit off these three midfield, Linton and Maluckyday will go to the tail of the field and both will be running on.
Overview: Looks to be a very strong race with all runners having claims in the race, with what looks to be a moderate tempo i feel all runners in the race will get their chance and the best horse on the day will win but unless the race is run at a very slow tempo Maluckyday looks to be the best stay in the field and will be very hard to hold out, cant see there being a surprise winner here.
Selections: Maluckyday, Linton, Descarado, Zavite
Written by Morgan Payne
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