Two time winner Black Piranha headlines the 2011 Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap to be held at Eagle Farm on Saturday. The Con Karakatsanis gelding could become the first horse to win the race three times and has drawn beautifully in barrier three.
The race also features Doomben 10,000 winner Beaded and the Stephen Farley trained Sincero which snuck into the field despite a disappointing performance in the QTC Cup. The winner of that race, Varenna Miss, will bypass the Stradbroke and possibly head towards the Winter Stakes later in the carnival.
The weather has been fine in Brisbane this week although a wet weekend is forecast meaning the track could be downgraded from a Dead 4 or Good 3 surface. This race is generally run at a strong tempo ensuring all horses should have their chance. Here is my runner by runner preview of the race based on a Dead-Slow surface.
Black Piranha: Hasn’t won a race since last year’s Stradbroke but he always seems to grow a leg here and his lead up runs in the BTC Cup and Doomben 10,000 have been strong. Due to the fact he hasn’t won a race since last year, he appears well weighted only carrying 1.5kg more than the 2010 event and weights have been raised 1kg. While he may be a year older, last year’s race appeared to be stronger on paper and while history will need to be defied, he should go very close.
All Silent: Hung out badly in the straight in the Doomben 10,000 and the change of the rider appears to be a desperate measure to try and reclaim his old form. Couldn’t see him threatening here.
Sniper’s Bullet: The 2007 winner of this event although he finished last behind Black Piranha in 2010. Like All Silent, his best form appears past him and I couldn’t see him beating the horses he took on in the BTC Cup and the Doomben 10,000.
Love Conquers All: The perennial bridesmaid in this quality of racing. He’s had every chance in his past two Group 1s but didn’t want to stick his nose out. Handles a heavy surface and gets in well at the weights back to handicap conditions. He will go forward to try and offset the wide barrier.
Beaded: Extremely consistent mare who broke her Group 1 drought in the Doomben 10,000 despite only just hanging on. Ran 4th in this race last year after a tough run and will be competitive one again. Has to deal with wide barrier.
Border Rebel: 1400m appears too far for this horse at this level and I doubt he could turn around his form to beat the horses he finished behind in the 10,000.
Alverta: Thought she was a little disappointing in the Glenlogan after having a fairly easy run. I’d suggest she would be more suited in the Winter Stakes in a fortnight.
Bold Glance: Raced well on a heavy surface in the Doncaster but was disappointing first up in the BRC Sprint. Probably needs it wet to be competitive with the better types in this race.
Rightfully Yours: No luck in the PM’s Cup but also pulled up with some sort of problem. Couldn’t see him winning here.
Woorim: Finished hard to win the BRC Sprint following a solid run in the Victory Stakes. Hasn’t got the class of some of these and only has a 1kg advantage over a horse like Beaded. Could only be competitive if the track is firm and the race is run lickety split up front.
Raffaello: Strange preparation coming into the race off a 200 plus day break. Best form is over more than 1400m and I’d be surprised if he finished in the first 10 here.
Thankgodyou’rehere: Hasn’t had much luck in either of his two Queensland runs but they have both been in weaker company. With a firm surface and a cosy run, this horse may be able to turn its form around.
Buffering: This horse struggles at anything further than 1200m particularly in this company and despite being undefeated at the track, I doubt he could be competitive here.
Culminate: Had a great run in the Dane Ripper but couldn’t quite finish the race off. I don’t think she is capable of winning this on her recent form and the Winter Stakes would appear to be her target. Chances are enhanced on a wet track.
Listen Son: A tough, honest galloper who has never been beaten over 1400m at Eagle Farm. Might struggle here in Group 1 company but could be in front for a long way.
Star of Octagonal: Hasn’t been in the best form and appears outclassed here. Needs a firm surface to be at its best.
Zero Rock: Another honest mare who will run well if the track is good-dead. Wide barrier could be a problem as the mare races on the speed.
Sincero: Disappointing in the QTC Cup when taking on the older horses. Didn’t have much room on the inside but wasn’t really finishing strongly either. Might be looking for a mile now and it’s hard to tip him on his last run.
None of the emergencies appear to be any danger in this race.
Selections: I’m going with Black Piranha on top to become the first triple winner of the Stradbroke. This year’s Winter Carnival will probably be remembered for the appearance of Black Caviar but a 3rd win from Black Piranha could potentially rival the mighty mare as the highlight of the carnival.
Despite the wide alley which may prove to be a benefit if the rain comes, I’ll tip Love Conquers All for 2nd. The honest mare Beaded should run in the first four. Thankgodyou’rehere, Listen Son and Zero Rock are all honest horses who will also run well.
Written by Peter Addley
| Bookmaker | Why Bet | Sign Up | Full Review |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Back Yourself with Ladbrokes! | Join | Review |
|
Back a Winner with Neds! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
