The sixth race and the second of the Group 1’s at Randwick on Australian Derby day is the Sires Produce Stakes for the two year olds. The current favourite for the race is Golden Slipper place getter ‘Elite Falls’ at $3.30 ahead of Bart Cummings trained Do You Think. In a very good field i have gone for some value with my top selections. View my runner by runner preview of the Sires Produce Stakes field.
1. Smart Missile – Scratched
2. Helmet – Has won two of his three starts and was unlucky in his only defeat at his first start beaten by Karuta Queen. Was sent to Melbourne to contest the VRC Sires Produce Stakes where he was set to start odds on but got cast in the barriers and was scratched from the race. Returned in a trial at Warwick Farm a fortnight ago which he won very impressively. His two wins have been against easier competition but he won both very impressively, jumps from barrier 7 tomorrow and will go forward and is likely to dictate the pace of the race. Should provide a good kick in the straight and we will see how good he really is against this quality field. Rates well.
3. Uate – Has won all of his three career starts all of which in impressively, could have gone to the Golden Slipper but connections decided to bypass and aim for this race which gives confidence he will suit the 1400m trip tomorrow. Has been racing against easier competition but looks an improving type that should be able to handle the step up in class, has drawn barrier (2) and will get a great run during transit. Currently at $9 which looks to be overs. Keep safe.
4. Do You Think – Won impressively at his first start at Canterbury and connections decided to head him towards the Golden Slipper but was balloted out of the race, accepted for the Schweppervescence and won impressively where he was odds on. Looks to be an improving colt and goes into the race as the only runner tested over the distance. Currently holds clear second favouritism at $3.50. Major player in the race but looks to be unders in a field of this quality.
5. Boys On Tour – Heads into tomorrow’s race as an outsider in the odds, form lead up into this race looks moderate and i would be very surprised if he was to figure in the placings. Happy to leave him out of my selections.
6. Exceed And Exalt – Won well at his first start against maiden company, was then stepped up into the Pago Pago Stakes where he was slow to begin but hit the line strongly. Looks like he will suit the 1400m trip and has drawn well (3). Currently at $26 and looks to be the outsider who could surprise in the race. Good each way value.
7. King’s Pact – Failed twice in his first two runs before winning his maiden last start in a maiden at Kensington. Looks to be well outclassed in this race which is why he is the rank outsider of the field. Cant see him figuring in the race.
8. Elite Falls – Current and deserving favourite for the race, she hasn’t missed the placings in her previous five starts including a win in the Reisling Stakes and a third place finish in last weekends Golden Slipper where she hit the line strongly behind Sepoy. Jumps up in distance tomorrow which she is untried at but looks like it will suit due to her running patten. Goes into the race as the one to beat and will likely start shorter than her current quote of $3.30 as i feel Do You Think will be easy in betting.
9. Pane In The Glass – Won her first three starts including the Inglis Classic, stepped up in class heading into the Sweet Embrace Stakes and was unlucky not to have finished closer after being held up throughout the straight. Last start she contested the Magic Night Stakes where she finished a very respectful second behind Altar who ran fifth in the Golden Slipper. Likely to go forward from barrier 12 and looks to be one of the leaders. Unproven at the 1400m and from the wide barrier (12) i feel she will do too much work early to be competitive in the finish but is definitely a place chance in the race at odds.
10. Shared Reflections – Has won two of her four starts one being a very solid sixth in the Golden Slipper last weekend where she hit the line strongly. She will go back from barrier (11) and her running style should allow her to run out the 1400m well and i expect her to be hitting the line strongly with Elite Falls. Currently at $9 for the race which looks overs as her Golden Slipper run was on par if not better than that of Elite Falls in my opinion. At the odds she looks a very good each way bet.
11. Fast And Sexy – Was a late scratching at the barriers for the Golden Slipper so the connections have opted to contest tomorrow’s race and she looks a type that will handle the 1400m. Last start she ran third behind Elite Falls and its unlikely she can turn the tables on her tomorrow but i wouldn’t be surprised if she was to win the race. Jumps from barrier 1 and will get a perfect run throughout the race where its expected she will go back in the field and be running on strongly. Great each way value at her current quote of $15.
12. Disputes – Yet to win from three starts and i highly doubt that will change tomorrow. Has drawn wide in barrier 10 and its likely she will be pushed forward to take up the running and looks like one of the likely leaders in the race. Cant see her figuring in the placings.
Speed: The speed in the race looks to be good and will suit those running midfield or at the rear of the field. I expect Helmet, Disputes and Boys On Tour to all go forward and take up the running with Uate, Do You Think and Pane In The Glass all looking to get a trail behind the leaders. Elite Falls, Shared Reflections and Fast And Sexy are likely to all go back and will be finishing strongly.
Overview: Looks to be a very good race with lots of live chances. All of the runners are untried at the 1400m with one exception (Do You Think), so it is hard to asses whether they will run out the trip or not which is why i will be favouring the runners who are likely to go back in the field and hope the leaders run at a speed of a 1200m race in which they are accustomed to.
Selections: Shared Reflections, Elite Falls, Helmet, Fast And Sexy
Written by Morgan Payne
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