The eighth race at Randwick tomorrow on Australian Derby day is the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes for Fillies and Mares. In what looks to be a very open race Graceful Anna heads the betting at $6.50. I have tried to go wide in my tips as i feel there is some good value in the race. View my runner by runner preview of the Sapphire Stakes field.
1. Graceful Anna – Group 3 winner who was thrown into the deep end last start in the Coolmore Classic where she was well beaten but had excuses due to the track condition. Two starts ago she ran very well in the Liverpool Cup where she was beaten 1L by Triple Elegance after running wide. Has drawn wide again tomorrow and has a bit of quality on her side against this competition. Good place chance.
2. Zingaling – Consistent galloper who won the group 3 Birthday Card Stakes last start when given a perfect run in transit, gets a much more awkward barrier tomorrow which is a worry but she looks to be a horse on the up. Will likely go back in the race which isnt a concern as the large field will provide enough speed for back markers to run on. Likes the distance and track and is currently at $10 and looks a good each way bet at the odds.
3. Marquardt – Won well in a listed race last preparation then was stepped up into group company where she was competitive on her first try then ran close to last at her second and was sent for a spell. Returned in the Breeders Classic where she hit the line well over the same distance and track behind More Joyous, she then contested the Millie Fox and was very disappointing but has the quality to win this at her best. Likely to be hitting the line strongly late and she shouldnt be left out of your multiples at $21.
4. Trim – Won a group 3 last preparation but hasnt been able to win since, consistent runner who is usually around the winning horses but doesnt have a great winning ratio. Was beaten by Zingaling last start and i cant see her turning the tables. She has drawn a good barrier (3) and should get a good run but i think she lacks the form heading into the race to win. Place chance at best.
5. Dysphonia – Won well in a listed race at the end of 2010 and ran an okay race when stepped up in the Villiers Stakes. Resumes in the race tomorrow and has a very good fist up record where she has only missed the place once from four tries. Jumps from barrier 5 and will get a good run during transit and will be hitting the line strongly if they ride her cold. Major player at double figure odds.
6. Dorf Command – Classy runner but hasn’t won in over a year, arguably finds a easier field tomorrow and should be able to get a good run during transit from barrier 7. Blinkers come off tomorrow which should hopefully allow for her to settle better and hit the line strongly. Happy to leave her out due to the recent lack of form but a win wouldnt surprise.
7. Kanzan – Very consistent mare who is rarely out of the placings, jumps up in grade tomorrow to group class and wont be embarrassed. Has drawn barrier 13 which i feel is a very awkward barrier for her as she usually runs midfield so is likely to run wide. Currently at $17 which is good value and i would have included her in my selections if drawn better but from the second outside barrier i feel she will do too much work during the run to figure in the finish.
8. Ofcourseican – Contrary to many runners in the field she has been racing at her best this preparation winning two of her previous three races, ran in the Birthday Card Stakes last start and was beaten just over a length by Zingaling but looked to have more upside from the race than the winner where she meets her at much better weights and barrier draw. Races at the rear of the field and has a great turn of foot, will be hoping for speed throughout the race and if its on she will be right in this. Currently at $8.50 for the race which looks great value.
9. Purrpurrlena – Ran very well last start in the Newcastle Newmarket where she hit the line strongly to run second and has drawn a good barrier (2) tomorrow and is likely she will go back in the field and get a good run. Another runner who will be looking for lots of speed in the race and if she gets it will be finishing the race off well. Currently at $21 and looks to be a good outside chance.
10. Ladys Angel – Lightly raced four year old who ran very well last start when beaten by Zingaling, gets slighter better in the weights today and has drawn a good barrier (3). Likely to sit just off the speed and i feel she will be in the finish. Currently at $7.50 for the race which i think is unders for such an open race but she is definitely one to include into your selections.
11. Hurtle Myrtle – Trialed very well two weeks ago and looks to be at her best, has drawn barrier 14 tomorrow which will give her no favours and its likely she will get back in the running and be posted wide in the large field. Talented mare who arguably should have more wins to her name. Would have been added to my selections if drawn better but i can see her doing too much work to be in the finish.
12. Flying Success – Equal second favourite for the race and put in a huge run last start in the Birthday Card Stakes behind Zingaling where she was posted wide but stuck on solidly for third. Gets a much better barrier tomorrow (8) and will get cover during the run. In form Glen Boss takes the reigns and if last start hasn’t taken too much out of her she looks to be one of the major players in the race. Strong Claims.
13. Kimillsy – Another runner out of the Birthday Card Stakes in which she ran a solid fourth in the race, draws a much worse barrier tomorrow and is likely to be posted wide throughout the race which is a concern. Looks like she will be looking for more gorund in upcoming races so im happy to leave her out of my selections.
14. Turnstiles – Won two races in a row earlier in the year and was stepped up into a listed race where she ran second to Jersey Lilly in a strong form race. Again she was stepped up last start in the Coolmore Classic where she went back and never figured in the race, drops back to a group 2 tomorrow where she looks to be much better suited and draws the inside barrier. Likely to run on speed and looks to be a mare on the up. Major player in the race.
Speed: On paper the race doesn’t look to have a lot of speed but the field size should provide a moderate tempo throughout running. Looks to be a race where a winner could come from the back or stick on from a forward position although i feel there is a slight bias to on speed runners in the race.
Overview: Looks a very tough race to predict with all runners in the race having enough claims to win the race at their best, a lot of runners in the field are coming out of the Birthday Card Stakes but i don’t think it is that great of a form line for the race. With the large field their should be some good value about but again it looks to be a very hard race to asses.
Selections: Dysphonia, Turnstiles, Ofcourseican, Flying Success
Written by Morgan Payne
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