Joseph Galati analyses this weeks premier sprint race in Australia, the Newmarket Handicap from racing headquarters, Flemington.
1) Black Caviar – She just wins. She would have to be in the top three most remarkable horses I have seen in my short lifetime and if she shows up 65% fit, she’ll win by at least 2 lengths. You couldn’t possibly place any big bets against her. Having said that the $1.20 on offer stops me from betting on her. The Moody-Nolen combination is the best trainer-jockey combination anywhere in the world of horse racing. The plus side to this race is that it is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races to see who runs a place rather than win that I can remember in a long time. My advice is to have a small bet on her and keep the ticket as a memento.
2) Hay List – Scratched.
3) Eagle Falls – Place chance. Big win last start in the Oakleigh Plate when he got back and stormed home to win well. He has found that blistering form again but he would have to grow another leg to win.
4) Grand Duels – This bloke deserves a Group One victory more than any other veteran racing today. He has been outstanding this campaign but meets a horse who would beat any sprinter in the world. Place?
5) Star Witness – Runs second for mine. I’m willing to forget his run in the Listed Manfred at Sandown and his work during the week was outstanding when he gave stablemate Keano wind burn as the two galloped down the straight. All form for this 3 year old is positive and if he was to miss the placings I would be shocked.
6) Beaded – The little mare from Sydney. She is one tough cookie and will be battling it out for the minors. Craig Newitt rides the mare for the Darley team at 52.5kilograms (5.5 kilograms less than Black Caviar) and she should be very close to a place finish.
7) Chasm – A non-winner who will need favours to run a place.
8) King Pulse – Has had his setbacks in recent time and all reports are that he came through his run in the Lightning well and there were no concerns. I would like to see him run a big race but he may still be a few weeks off.
9) Response – Should have finished a lot closer last start in the Oakleigh Plate and she was unable to fully let down at her last start. She hasn’t missed a placing at Flemington to date and she should be pressing hard for a placing.
10) Snapparazi – Won’t run a place and looks completely outclassed.
11) Crystal Lily – 2010 Golden Slipper looking to find some form. She is beautifully weighted and can sneak into the first 5.
12) Hinchinbrook – Ran very well last start and could be the second half of a Moody quinella. I rate his run in the Oakleigh Plate highly but I believe Response’s run was more of an eye catcher. Similar to Crystal Lily this colt could sneak into the first 5.
BEST BET: First 4 – 1 / 5 / 3,6,9 / 3,4,5,6,9,11,12 /
Written by Joseph Galati
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