Joseph Galati assesses the field ahead of Friday night’s Group 2 Essendon Mazda Australia Stakes under lights at Moonee Valley.
1 ) Scenic Shot SCRATCHED
2 ) Heart Of Dreams (10) D.Oliver M.Price 58.5kg
Why he can win: This 5 year old son of Show Of Heart races well over the 1200m and has the booking of top hoop Damien Oliver.
Why he can’t win: Is yet to win in 5 tries first up. Nor has he won at two attempts at Moonee Valley. Might be safe to pass on him first up.
3 ) Vigor (1) G.Boss D.O’Brien 58.5kg
Why he can win: Ran a bottler first up last preparation in the Liston Stakes behind Shoot Out and has won at Moonee Valley.
Why he can’t win: Resuming from a viral infection found at his previous run and its unclear to gauge how he will run but given the fact he hasn’t won from 6 runs first up its hard to give him the nod.
4 ) Whitefriars (8) J.Cassidy R.Worthington 58.5kg
Why he can win: Huge run last start after racing wide throughout the entire race and he kept finding right to the line.
Why he can’t win: Hasn’t raced at Moonee Valley so it is unknown whether he will handle the track, and is yet to win second up.
5 ) Diplomatic Force (7) C.Robertson W.Nichols 58.5kg
Why he can win: Jumped awkwardly last start and ran a top race behind Group One placegetter First Command. Definitely not the roughest.
Why he can’t win: Last win was in March 2009 and has never really met a field like this since the middle of 2009 and might not be suited at WFA level.
6 ) Secret Flyer (4) D.Dunn M.Young 58.5kg
Why he can win: Run a strong race in the Standish last start and has good all round form including 3 wins at Moonee Valley.
Why he can’t win: Also doesn’t look suited at WFA. He hasn’t won since August 2009.
7 ) Commanding Hope (9) B.Rawiller C.Hyland 58.5kg
Why he can win: Has won over course and distance before.
Why he can’t win: Bookmakers have given him no chance after opening at $101, and looks outclassed in this field.
8 ) Undeniably (6) M.Rodd M.Kavanagh 58.5kg
Why he can win: Only lightly raced and looks to be a handy up and coming horse. Won nicely last start at Moonee Valley.
Why he can’t win: Stepping up from an 0-78 race to a Group 2 WFA looks a tough assignment.
9 ) Typhoon Tracy (2) L.Nolen P.Moody 56.5kg
Why she can win: 2010 Horse Of The Year, gets 2kg from the boys, unbeaten over 1200m, unbeaten track and distance, flies around Moonee Valley, flies first up, loves a good rated track.
Why she can’t win: Not to sure why she can’t win. Looks a bit hard to find any real reason to knock her.
10 ) Ortensia (3) C.Williams T.Noonan 56.5kg
Why she can win: Ran a strong race in the Hong Kong Group 1 Sprint. Will more than likely run second favourite and should prove Typhoon Tracy’s testing material.
Why she can’t win: Hasn’t won at Moonee Valley and tends to run on from the back of the field, which can prove difficult at the Valley.
Tips: (9) Typhoon Tracy – (4) Whitefriars – (5) Diplomatic Force – (10) Ortensia
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Written by Joseph Galati
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