The Autumn Carnival moves to Randwick and once again there is a full card of Group racesmto look at with the highlights being the AJC Derby and the appearance of the worldâ€™s bestmracehorse, Black Caviar.
The opening race, the Kindergarten Stakes is a hot race for two year olds. The fact that Hugh Bowman has jumped off Hot Snitzel to ride the unraced Conroyâ€™s Gap is hard to ignore. Hemwon a trial impressively and has been backed in early markets so our traders think that hemis the big watch in this race. Hardest to beat will be the Gai Waterhouse trained Aubazine.
The blinkers went on for a trial and she absolutely flew, winning hard held by eight lengths.mQueenian trialled well in a fast time so he could be the value in the race, while Fox has hadmone start for a second to Do You Think, which is looking like excellent form for this. HotmSnitzel is off the menu with Bowman jumping off.
Conroyâ€™s Gap $3.50, Hot Snitzel $5.00, Aubazine $6.00, Queenian $6.50, Fox $9.00, Anise $9.00, Jackpot Queen $12.00, Others $15.00 & above.
Carbine Club Stakes:
Race 2 is the Carbine Club Stakes where Needs Further is the favourite but is our traders â€œlay of the dayâ€. Nash Rawiller going on after a trial is a big positive given his record at the track, but the Wednesday form around him is questionable and our traders â€˜need furtherâ€™ evidence he is up to this class. Kudakulari appreciated being gelded (If that is possible?) with a big win in the Canberra Guineas and the big track here will suit him even better. Divorces comes through the good form of the Kewney stakes, but with the draw, McEvoy will have to settle back and hope for some speed up front. Happy Trails appeals at the odds after a wide run at his first start at the mile in the Adelaide Guineas while the best â€˜roughieâ€™ in the race is Quarterbar. He had no luck last start behind Meredith at Sandown and like the top weight will appreciate the big track at Randwick.
Needs Further $3.60, Divorces $4.50, Kudakulari $4.80, The Ruffian $9.00, Happy Trails $9.00, Potions $11.00, Shadows In The Sun $13.00, Others $17.00 & above. $26.00, Response $41.00, Alverta $41.00, Others $41.00 & above.
Sires Produce Stakes:
The scratching of Smart Missile in the Sires Produce Stakes (Race 6) has turned the race upside down. Our traders thought he was a certainty here so now think it is a race between
Do You Think and Elite Falls. The latter ran a superb third in the Slipper last week while Do You Think was impressive in winning in a lesser grade. The fact that Elite Falls was set for last week and this is an afterthought might just give the edge to Do You Think who is on the way up. Helmet is an untapped talent but still very green, the winkers go on and he has won a trial in preparation for this. Do not leave him out of calculations. Likewise for Uate who keeps winning as he progresses through the grades, while Shared Reflections is a lay. She was okay in the slipper but our traders think that she is a risk at the 1400 metres.
Do You Think $3.50, Elite Falls $3.80, Helmet $6.00, Shared Reflections $9.00, Uate $9.00, Fast And Sexy $15.00, Pane In The Glass $16.00, Others $26.00 & above.
AJC Australian Derby:
The main race of the day is the AJC Australian Derby (Race 7) where Jimmy Choux is a deserved favourite after his stylish win in the Rosehill Guineas. Despite that, our traders
think that the short price is prohibitive and Shamrocker represents better value. His three wins have come on big tracks such as Flemington so he will be suited by Randwick and will run the distance. If punters are looking for a chink in the favouriteâ€™s armour is that he has been up a long time. Expect Retrieve to be ridden more aggressively than last week which will give him a better chance, while I Think I Do is still improving and does have the â€˜Bartâ€™ factor. King Gladiator is the best â€˜roughieâ€™ in the race and his odds will shorten if the rain does come, while Light Brigade is seen as a risk over the mile and a half.
Jimmy Choux $2.10, Shamrocker $6.50, Retrieve $7.50, King Gladiator $12.00, I Think I Do $13.00, Light Brigade $16.00, Masquerader $16.00, Others $17.00 & above.
The toughest race of the day is the Sapphire Stakes (Race 8) at 6.00 the field. In a veryopen affair our traders feel that Graceful Anna is well placed here coming back from the Coolmore Classic. Before that she split Triple Elegance and Pureness which reads well for this. Ladyâ€™s Angel is drawn to get a cosy run and is the main danger. Both Zingaling and Ofcourseican are racing well, but just starting to creep up in the weights while Turnstiles appeals as terrific value. She also comes out of the Coolmore, but with Craig Williams taking the ride could sit up on the speed from barrier one and be hard to run down.
Ladyâ€™s Angel $6.00, Flying Success $7.50, Graceful Anna $7.50, Ofcourseican $8.50, Dysphonia $9.00, Zingaling $10.00, Turnstiles $10.00, Others $12.00 & above.
The Chairmanâ€™s Handicap (Race 3) is the traditional lead-up to the Sydney Cup and while neither race will be bursting with talent it is where we find our traders â€˜best bet of the dayâ€™. Galizani was a dominant winner against the mares last start and while now she has to do it against the boys but the way she hit the line suggests she will â€˜eat upâ€™ 2600 metres. Older
Than Time is lightly raced and keeps stepping up in grade and winning, she is the big danger. Showcause is a tough kiwi who has to give some weight to some talented horses, but he
will be strong at the finish and should be included for those taking multiples. Anudjawun is well weighted, consistently gets close without winning, but does have an important jockey change with Craig Williams taking the ride. Our traders are happy to take on the top two, Speed Gifted and Câ€™est La Guerre as they give too much weight to the others, while Once Were Wild might have the blinkers off, but is struggling.
Galizani $5.00, Older Than Time $7.00, Anudjawun $8.00, Showcause $9.00, Speed Gifted $12.00, Once Were Wild $12.00, Câ€™est La Guerre $13.00, Others $17.00 and above.
Doncaster Mile Prelude:
The Doncaster Prelude (Race 4) is a race that our traders suggest you go buy a hot dog if you are at the track or put on the kettle if you are watching from home. One thing is guaranteed
in this race, the Doncaster winner is not running. Unfortunately it is the first leg of the Jackpot Super 6, but if you are watching at home this could be a good time to feign interest in doing some of those chores you have been deliberately been putting off since the carnival began.
Glintz $6.00, Lebrechaun $7.00, Snow Alert $9.00, Brilliant Light $9.00, Viking Hero $9.00, Mentality $10.00, Altered Boy $11.00, Others $13.00 & above.
TJ Smith Stakes:
The racing public get their first look at Black Caviar in the TJ Smith Stakes (Race 5) and once again the jockeys apart from Luke Nolen just get to look at her bum as she races away with
another win. It is her first start running clockwise and the track may be a slow 6, but this wonâ€™t stop her from making it twelve straight. Crystal Lily is â€˜flyingâ€™ but unfortunately she is
in â€˜business classâ€™ while Black Caviar is further up the pointy end. Hay List may have to work hard to get to the front so could end up in â€œpremium economyâ€™ while Shellscrape could be one for punters looking for an upgrade. He does boast a win over the 1200 metres here and likes the sting out of the ground.
Black Caviar $1.20, Hay List $15.00, Crystal Lily $15.00, Shoot Out $17.00, Shellscrape
The final race is another tough race and a tough way to finish the Super 6 and quaddie. It is a wide open event with many chances with our traders leaning slightly to Rose of Peace even though she has drawn the outside barrier. A more patient ride from Michael Rodd will be required here but the step up to 2000 metres looks the answer. The saddle slipped on Whoâ€™s Ready last week so she gets another chance while both Booklet and Willow Creek both ran well in Adelaide, they have to carry 58 kg here. In a race where our traders advise to go wide, chances are also given to Placement, Becerra, Raspberries, Honor Net and Dreamworker.
Rose Of Peace $5.00, Raspberries $8.00, Booklet $10.00, Willow Creek $10.00, Becerra $10.00, Dreamworker $11.00, Others $13.00 & above.
Best Bet: Galizani
Best Roughie: Turnstiles
Lay of the Day: Needs Further
Tap On the Shoulder It is a jackpot Big 6 this weekend and with Black Caviar running it is effectively a Big 5 and worthy of investment.
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