20/2/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Diamond Stakes day

A bumper program of racing has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday, with three Group l races, the feature being the Blue Diamond (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Blue Diamond Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Blue Diamond Stakes

Futurity Stakes 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Futurity Stakes

Oakleigh Plate 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Oakleigh Plate

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3 Wolfe (Bet Now: $4.00 TOP ODDS) will put himself on speed and give his all. That was the case in the Australia Day Cup at Warwick Farm last start and he gave a really good kick when having a battle with Skymax. That horse just had a pull in the weights and was too good. Form out of the race has been okay and this horse does race best when leading and controlling.

Good little test here for 9 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) but I think he’s up to it. Three weeks between runs since winning over the mile here in impressive fashion, his third straight run at 1600m and for mine is now looking for further, which he gets here, and overall, this race isn’t overly strong.

8 Dawson Diva (Bet Now: $13.00 TOP ODDS) looks to be back on track and I think Moods has got her going well enough to record a win. She ran in the 1800m race shared by Defibrillate and Hang Man a few weeks back. She worked to the line nicely late, finishing a close up fourth. Not far off a win and is a knockout chance here.

7 Oxley Road (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) is a Peter Moody trained three year old that goes to Stakes company from maiden grade but he looks an exciting prospect. There was a lot of class/quality about his debut win down the Flemington straight when leading throughout and winning with seemingly something in hand. He’s a good prospect, stable is flying…lands on speed and proves hard to beat.

Want to give 3 Valaquenta (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) another chance. James Cummings trained three year old that was I quite keen on when he resumed several weeks ago at Randwick. It was a nothing ride from McEvoy. Jumped well, but snagged back to near last, then went three and four wide without cover. The horse was given none. He’s better that and deserves another look.

8 Grand Pope (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) lacks the class of some of these, but I’m keen to see how he goes. Gee it was a big win from him first up in a maiden at Pakenham, charging home from the back, producing great late splits. Stable is having a really good run at the moment and this three year old looks to have his share of talent.

5 Impecunious (Bet Now: $2.90 TOP ODDS) does look an Oaks filly. Loaded with talent and class it appears. Made her Australian debut over 1200m at Caulfield at the midweeks and she rounded them up from the back like they were second rate and to be fair, compared to her, they were second rate. She’s got enormous upside and improvement to come and looks hard to beat.

4 Safe Passage (Bet Now: $7.00 TOP ODDS) deserves a crack at this kind of race. Danny O’Brien has her humming along very nicely at the moment. Dominant win two back under the lights at Pakenham before going to Sandown where she had to knuckle down strongly to win and that she did. Harder here, but worthy of a shot.

1 Yes Baby Yes (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is capable if she found her best. Didn’t really fire a shot in two runs during the Brisbane Summer, but both events were strong on paper, including the Magic Millions Guineas. Returns home and third up from a break, should just about be at peak fitness. Her is good enough.

I’d love to see intent with 4 Spanish Reef (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS). I think if she is to win another Stakes race, she gets a golden chance here I feel. Sovereign Award looks a comfortable leader, but Spanish Reef has shown previously she can sit handy and be effective. Dig in the ribs, she sits outside Sovereign Award and will prove hard to get past of that eventuates.

1 Perfect Jewel (Bet Now: $2.20 TOP ODDS) is a class mare for Team Williams that resumes. She did a really good job in the Spring, most notably first up here when winning the Cockram and smashing the clock relative to the day. That was 1200m and she does seem more effective over slightly further, so 1400m fresh here I like and her Belmont trial was strong.

6 Neighbourhood (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is racing well. She wasn’t too bad in defeat in the Australia Stakes at the Valley given the winner and subsequent CF Orr winner Streets Of Avalon went a tick over 33 for his last 600m, so those behind had no chance, including this girl. Up to 1400m I do like.

1 Khoekhoe (Bet Now: $3.30) is better than these I feel. Talented three year old for Matt Cumani that resumes, having not raced since the Vase on Cox Plate Day when a game second to Cherry Tortoni. Been given a good break and I love the fact he resumes at 1800m, telling me he’s ready to go, and produced good change up speed in a recent Terang jumpout.

10 Parure (Bet Now: $7.00) is a progressive filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team that should be okay at 1800m. Knuckled down strongly on speed when winning over the mile at Sandown last time, doing a bit wrong when initially placed under pressure but found enough. Think she can measure up to these.

7 Setanta (Bet Now: $23.00) hasn’t done much wrong this time in for the Maher/Eustace camp. He ran over the mile at Sandown last start and seemed to get every chance near the speed. Just battled late but far from disgraced in defeat behind Parure. Think he’ll need an economical but if it eventuates, he can be around the mark.

7 Probabeel (Bet Now: $4.00) is a star mare for Jamie Richards that comes here second up. Backed as if unbeatable when resuming in the Bellmaine and even with the big weight, she just had panels on them and was way too good. This will be a more true guide as to where she is at, but IMO, I think she’s flying.

1 Behemoth (Bet Now: $3.00) is three weeks between runs since resuming with a dominant victory in the Durbridge. The query was 1100m perhaps being short of his best but once the speed was clapped on, the race was all over and he duly bolted in. Harder here, but proven at the track/distance and you know he’ll be strong at the end.

3 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $16.00) can pull out a decent run fresh and we know he has quality when right, as seen when winning the Toorak. Has bene given trials to prepare for his resumption and he is the 1400m/1600m horse here that can run well fresh, whereas some of these are looking for further.

If 13 Enthaar (Bet Now: $2.70) can stretch her brilliance out to 1200m, it’s race over. But, there has to be a little query with her at the six furlongs, especially given she is likely to start odds on. Outstanding return to the track when winning the Chairmans and smashing the clock in doing so. 1000m and 1200m are two different beasts. She can win this. Do I want to take a short price? No.

5 Anamoe (Bet Now: $5.50) is the one that will love a fast run 1200m. Resumed in the Boys Prelude and powered home nearer the inside, just missing out on picking up General Beau. The draw makes it tricky for him, but he’ll be strong late, especially more so if they overdo it in front. Definite winning hope.

I, like most, got sucked in with the times in the 2YO races the week before the Magic Millions and steered clear of the boys. The times cheer squad are steering clear of the Prelude for the Fillies but visually, I thought 14 Arcaded (Bet Now: $14.00) was dominant. Did she beat much? I’d say no, but she attacked the line with purpose, like she did on debut, and I don’t see 1200m being an issue with her at all. Think she only runs well.

I’m with 7 Celebrity Queen (Bet Now: $8.00). Very good mare from WA resuming for Team Williams. Went so close to winning the Winterbottom last year but had to settle for a narrow second to Elite Street. Sharp trial win back home to get ready for the resumption, she’ll sit off a fast speed and launch late.

4 Standout (Bet Now: $19.00) is the big query here. He has the engine under the hood to win this and better races. Just needs things to fall into place for him. He was faced with the prospect of a wet track in the Expressway so the stable scratched in the hope of firmer footing. Market will be fascinating with him.

3 Kemalpasa (Bet Now: $27.00) is a beauty for the Jolly camp that will go around big odds here, but he’ll get an ideal run. He won’t be too far away from the speed and won’t be chasing from too far back. Copped too much heat on speed first up in the Durbridge and the race just set up perfect for Behemoth. Better with a bunny to chase I feel and is a proven weight carrier.

Great to see 1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $8.00) back at the races and I think he can resume a winner. Nothing really went right for him in the Spring in two runs and was found to be injured after the Memsie so was sent back home. Been given a good long spell and based on his recent trial win, he appears ready to go.

9 Nonconformist (Bet Now: $5.50) looks to have returned in good order for Grahame Begg with an eye towards the Australian Cup. Resumed in the Carlyon Cup in what was a farcically run affair, with Best Of Days getting complete control in front and giving nothing from behind a look in, including this guy, but he was solid late. Think if he is to be a serious Australian Cup contender, has to be going close to winning this.

2 Harlem (Bet Now: $21.00) is an absolute beauty for the Hayes/Dabernig team that is heading towards a crack at winning his third Australian Cup. Was first up two weeks ago in the Carlyon Cup and given the race shape, he had no chance. Fitter and up in trip, could be an improver at odds.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Khoekhoe

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 3 Wolfe

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 7 Celebrity Queen

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 7, 8

Leg Two: 2, 5, 9, 13, 14

Leg Three: 3, 4, 7, 10, 15

Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 9

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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