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The Adelaide Carnival swings into action this Saturday at Morphettville with a Group l double header, the SA Oaks and Robert Sangster, the two features. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

Robert Sangster 🏆: View the Field for the Robert Sangster Stakes

Australasian Oaks 🏆: View the Field for the Australasian Oaks

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Race 1. (12:06) Queen Adelaide Stakes 1050m

Back Me

Have been a fan of 1 Theresbearinthere (Bet Now: $6.50) since day one when he trialled back in October. Have been waiting and waiting for him to debut, which came here two weeks ago, where he led throughout and won impressively. The positives are his racing style and his change up speed to win. The knock is the time he ran wasn’t great, but I’m trusting my eye.

Danger

2 Extra Time (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Shooting To Win for the Macdonald/Gluyas team that resumed in the 2YO race here two weeks ago won by Theresabearinthere. He got back in the run but loved the way he found the line late to run second. He wants a rise in trip I think, so that’s the knock here, but he’ll be strong late.

Long Shot

7 Zoushine (Bet Now: $4.60) has finished runner up in both career outings. The latest of those came four weeks ago in the Dequetteville when beaten narrowly by Ecumenical, but keep in mind that filly bolted up last Saturday to frank the form. This girl seems a short course specialist and that Ecumenical form is arguably the strongest juvenile form line in SA.

Race 2. (12:41) Celebration Of Adl Hills (64) 1200m

Back Me

14 La Croft (Bet Now: $3.40) on top. Team McEvoy trains this filly, who resumed in what looked a thin Strathalbyn maiden hence why she was a $1.40, and duly won like a $1.40 pop, winning by nearly five lengths and had something in reserve to the eye., Jumping straight to 64 grade is an ask, but this isn’t the strongest 64 going around.

Danger

9 She’s Never Late (Bet Now: $8.50) is a mare who loves wet ground so she gets conditions to suit. She was wide with cover throughout but peeled wider and under her own steam, moved into the race with purpose and the race was over on the home turn. Looks to have returned in super order and I think has to be respected here given the favourite is a last start maiden winner.

Long Shot

7 Aray Of Sunshine (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Rob Wilkinson trained mare that had jumped out super prior to the resumption at Gawler where she got back in the run, peeled wide and finished off with real purpose late to nab a proven city performer, Alaskan Jade, near the line. Has run well in town before, so not ruling her out against these.

Race 3. (13:16) Terry Howe Printing (bm82) 1600m

Back Me

I think the senior jock going on 2 Naseeb (Bet Now: $8.50) will definitely help his cause. He took charge of Teagan Voorham last time out, pulling his head off in the run and had nothing left for the straight behind Gigglon. Love the booking of Vorster and he has won on the horse previously, so he knows what to do to get this horse to relax.

Danger

He’s a little while between wins but I reckon he can take this out 5 Handsome Return (Bet Now: $8.50). Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he got a good run off the speed and chased hard throughout in the straight when a close up third to Roselli Sting. He’s getting hard fit now and I think, in a tricky race, he can greet the judge first.

Long Shot

3 Roselli Sting (Bet Now: $6.50) is having a career best prep for Gordon Richards. Once upon a time, this horse was a bludger, but he’s put it together this time in, winning multiple races in town, including a strong win from off the pace here two weeks ago when wearing them down out wide. Can he put two on the bounce on the board?

Race 4. (13:56) Port Adelaide Cup 2500m

Back Me

5 Eperdument (Bet Now: $13.00) is a Shane Oxlade trained mare that was outclassed in the Adelaide Cup before being a freshen up and racing over the mile here two weeks ago where she was very good late over an unsuitable trip when fourth to Roselli Sting. Like her up to 2500m and this isn’t the strongest staying contest going around.

Danger

7 Bertwhistle (Bet Now: $26.00) comes through the Roselli Sting race from two weeks ago as well and for a staying mare, her effort was quite good. She came off the bit a fair way from home but ran through the pain barrier, picked up and was good late. She’ll eat up the further ground and will handle the track if it’;s rain affected.

Long Shot

8 Franked (Bet Now: $12.00) rises a fair bit in grade/depth but he’s hard fit and has found form. Was teasing to win one, and was becoming frustrating to follow, but he was given a sweet steer by Pannell here two weeks ago and surged hard late to get up and score. Can I see him winning this? I’m saying no, but for exotics, he goes in.

Race 5. (14:36) Queen Of The South Stakes 1600m

Back Me

Best on the card for me in 1 Seabrook (Bet Now: $4.40). She’s flying for the Price/Kent stable and finds such a lovely race to get some more blacktype. Comes through the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield where she tried hard and loomed large to beat Bam’s On Fire, but that mare has got hard race fitness and I think that was the difference. Cherry ripe now should Seabrook be, and she’s too classy for these.

Danger

3 Snogging (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Busuttin/Young trained mare that is five weeks between runs since resuming with a win in the Bendigo Bracelet under a lovely steer from Michael Walker. Form out of that has been ticked off via Clarice Cliffs, so with upside to come, fresh legs, and in a winnable race, she commands decent respect.

Long Shot

7 Pretty Glass (Bet Now: $35.00) is one I can make a case for at odds to run well. Was 1200m-1600m two weeks ago here when doing a bit of work from the wide gate and that effort just told late behind Roselli Sting. Ran well in this race last year. Not sure she’s going as well compared to 12 months ago, but it’s hardly been an ideal set up. Keen to see how she goes.

Race 6. (15:16) Euclase Stakes 1200m

Back Me

1 Garner (Bet Now: $2.90) looks the pony to bet on. Beat all bar Shamino in the Manihi before going to his own age in the Redelva two weeks ago and he made a mess of them under a confident steer from Stubby. He’s on track to go to the Goodwood but would need to win this to warrant going there. Yet to prove himself at 1200m, but he should be fine.

Danger

The horse that is proven at 1200m and has runs on the board is the Will Clarken trained 4 Roccabascerana (Bet Now: $4.60), who had his first run for the stable in the Redelva and was a definite pass mark I thought, hitting the line nicely to finish second to Garner. Not sure he has the brilliance of Garner, but if he turns this into a proper 1200m contest, he can win.

Long Shot

11 Li’l Kontra (Bet Now: $27.00) is probably not going as well as what she was in the Spring for Ryan Balfour but we know she’s good enough to measure up here. Last run came in the Redelva when off the speed and trying hard but no match for them when fifth to Garner. I think a rise to 1200m is perfect and keep in mind last time at 1200m, she ran fourth in the Group l Coolmore Stud.

Race 7. (15:56) Australasian Oaks 2000m

Back Me

9 Toffee Tongue (Bet Now: $6.00) has the A1 form to win this. Chris Waller trains this filly, who has finished second to the second best staying filly in Australia, Colette (First being Tuscan Queen). Closed off well in the Adrian Knox before backing up a week later in the ATC Oaks and closing strongly again, but no match for her. Gets a soft trip from the gate and has the form on the board.

Danger

5 Vegas Jewel (Bet Now: $7.50) can bounce back hard here. Definite pass mark in the Bendigo Guineas first up before going to the Auraria where she was really well tried, with sustained market support. Ridden negatively from the wide gate, was looking for luck to build into the race and got zero. She looks on target to run a ripper here.

Long Shot

I think 3 Moonlight Maid (Bet Now: $10.00) is back on track. Thought it was just a run first up against the mares behind Mamzelle Tess in the Sunline before going to the VOBIS Guineas at Caulfield and working home well behind Florent. She’s crying out for more ground, which she gets here, and has plenty of upside to come.

Race 8. (16:36) Robert Sangster Stakes 1200m

Back Me

With the weight pull, the way she’s racing and a question mark on some key chances here, I’m going with 16 Away Game (Bet Now: $3.90). Farnan is the 2YO of the year as it stands, but if Away Game was to take this out, no contest in her taking the title as the best juvenile in Australia. Made a mess of them in the Percy Sykes and down to 47.5kg, gee she’ll run a beauty I think.

Danger

She’s a beauty 6 Bam’s On Fire (Bet Now: $16.00) and I think she can measure up here. Tough on speed win in the Victoria Handicap at Caulfield. Looked in a bit of trouble when Seabrook loomed to beat her, but her hard fitness kicked in and she was too good for them. Back to 1200m is interesting, but loves wet ground and gets Blinkers on for a crack at Group l glory.

Long Shot

5 Teleplay (Bet Now: $19.00) is in this right up to her ears I feel. Resumed in the VOBIS Sprint at Caulfield two weeks ago and I thought she was very good late off a hot speed, working to the line with purpose when third to Vainstream. The query being does she want further now? To offset that, they’ll go quick here and she’ll be strong at the end.

Race 9. (17:15) D C Mckay Stakes 1100m

Back Me

Leaning the way of 6 Bold Star (Bet Now: $8.00) for Gordon Richards. I thought he was enormous in defeat three weeks ago in the Furphy. Had to go back to last with 62kg in a slowly run race. Considering the leader/winner, the flying Bella Vella, ran 33.49 for her L600m, Bold Star has run some incredible sectionals to take ground off with the weight. Much better suited here and confident he can press claims for a Goodwood berth.

Danger

Good test here for 9 Shamino (Bet Now: $4.60) but every time Phillip Stokes has raised the bar with this guy, he’s measured up. Was always going to win the Manihi four weeks ago when bolting behind the speed. Just a matter of getting the run, which he got, and burst through to beat Garner, who ranked the form in the Redelva. Hardest test to date here, but he’s got a lethal turn of foot. Can it be just as effective on wet ground?

Long Shot

10 Kabini (Bet Now: $3400) is a Barry Brook trained mare who can mix her form but she’s going okay at the moment. Ran in the Furphy three weeks ago and was very good from the back when second to Bella Vella, with that run well and truly confirming that the best way to ride her is cold and saved for the straight. One for multiples I reckon.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Seabrook

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 14 La Croft

LONG SHOT: Race Nine Number 6 Bold Star

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 4

Leg Two: 3, 5, 7, 9, 14

Leg Three: 1, 5, 6, 16

Leg Four: 2, 6, 9, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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