The Australian Guineas (1600m) is one of the better races on the Australian racing calendar and the feature for the three year olds highlights racing at Flemington this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Field 🏆: View the Australian Guineas Field
Race 1. (10:55) Very Special Kids Plate 1000m
Really keen on 2 Yulong Savings (Bet Now: $4.20) for Tony McEvoy. This colt trialled up enormous with the blinkers on before debuting at Bendigo where he was wide no cover on speed but cantered to the front and dashed clear when asked by Mallyon. Time was good relative to the day, had improvement to come…plenty to like, so I’m confident he can measure up against these.
1 Lanigera (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute speed demon who will give them something to chase. Ran some very good mid race splits last time in the Talindert but was a shot duck 300m out and weakened out behind stablemate Microphone. If he could harness his energy, he’d be hard to beat. Couldn’t back him to win until he does it, but concede he’s got the right form.
Interesting runner is 3 Beautrooper (Bet Now: $27.00), a son of Brazen Beau on debut for Joseph Waldron. He’s had two Mornington jumpouts in readiness for his debut, the latest seeing him run second to Brooklyn hustle when on speed, pushed out, wanted to lay in but responded well and beat the rest comfortably in solid time. Stable is going well so keen to see what he does.
Race 2. (11:25) Roy Higgins Quality 2600m
5 Schabau (Bet Now: $1.45) looks a really progressive stayer for Rob Hickmott. He raced over 2000m here a fortnight ago where he was given a lovely ride by Zahra and despite being strongly challenged in the straight, his class came to the fore late and the further the race went, the further he was edging away. That’s why 2600m looks perfect, and with natural upside, he does look the winner.
2 Naval Warfare (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Chris Waller trained stayer who is in really good form at the moment. He comes through the Torney Cup at the Valley where he just lacked the turn of foot when the sprint went on, but he kept on and was closing to the line nicely late when second to Vengeur Masque. Been a real model of consistency this prep and he should run well again.
There is a long tail to this race outside the fav and to a lesser extent, Naval Warfare. From an Adelaide Cup perspective, 3 Aloft (Bet Now: $31.00) could be a sneaky one to watch for. He ran in the Torney Cup last time at the Valley when doing work to land on speed and tiring late behind Vengeur Masque. I reckon he’s going in okay form and could fill a first four spot.
Race 3. (11:55) Bob Hoysted Handicap 1000m
7 She’s So High (Bet Now: $2.30) is a quality mare for Mick Price that is resuming. This girl hasn’t raced since the Adelaide Carnival last year when scoring a dominant win in the Proud Miss. Been given a really good break and has looked sharp in both a Caulfield jumpout and then a Cranbourne trial. Looks ready to rock and roll first up and is proven down the Flemington straight.
8 I Am Someone (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Paul Preusker trained four year old who hasn’t raced since January 12 over the 1100m here where he was near the speed all the way before Kersley asked for the big effort and he showed a lovely turn of foot to put them away pretty impressively. Can’t find a recent jumpout for him, but he’s a good fresh horse and is proven down the straight.
1 Battle Hero (Bet Now: $13.00) could be an improver at odds. Chris Gangemi trains this bloke, who was set a pretty tough task first up in the Lightning, clearly being outclassed behind In Her Time. Drops to a fairly weak Listed race and draws out, so Noske has plenty of options as to what to do, whether he leads or sits wide for clear air. A win wouldn’t surprise with him.
Race 4. (12:25) Mittys Handicap (84) 1100m
Have to butter up on the Jason Warren trained 7 Miss Toorak Flyer (Bet Now: $4.40). Was all over when she ran last Friday night over 955m at the Valley but her chances were done when she missed the start and the split between the 600-200m just left her with no petrol tickets late to claim McGarrett. Hopefully she can stalk the speed, peel to the outside and show that customary burst of speed.
The Waller/Melham combo is always one to be wary of and they combine here with 5 Charlayne (Bet Now: $4.60), who has been good at her past couple, running second at Canterbury two back before going to the Valley where she beat all bar Khulaasa. Fast run 1100m would really suit her I think and with the gate, she can stalk that speed and have last say with clear air.
3 Island Daze (Bet Now: $6.00) has done a fab job since joining the Grahame Begg stable. Has won 2/2 since switching camps, winning first up at Sandown before racing under the lights at the Valley where she was confidently ridden by Jordy Childs and she bolted in. Bit to like about the way she’s going and she did place in her lone run down the straight. Quite likeable.
Race 5. (13:00) Seppelt Wines Plate 1400m
Really keen to see the return of the Archie Alexander trained 10 Write Your Name (Bet Now: $10.00). He resumes after a very promising first prep, which saw him win a couple and finish just behind in another couple of runs. Geelong trial was just okay but looked much better in a Feb 18 jumpout at Avoca when dashing between runners, beating the well performed and noted trial performer Gallic Chieftain.
4 Age Of Chivalry (Bet Now: $2.60) could have gone down the Guineas but the stable are thinking long term with him hence why he’s running here. He attempted to lead all the way in the CS Hayes and gave a really good kick in front but just found The Inevitable too good on the day. Back to this kind of field should suit him, he’s got the form on the board and the right racing pattern.
11 Syd’s Coin (Bet Now: $61.00) is a son of Denman resuming for the Kenny Keys stable. This bloke had a solid Spring, highlighted by a win over the mile at Caulfield on Blue Sapphire Day. Contested the Carbine Club and Sandown Guineas after and ran okay, but he’s a few lengths off that level. Trialled well recently at Cranbourne and he’ll be okay late. Include him in multiples.
Race 6. (13:35) Shaftesbury Avenue 1400m
One of the more interesting runners for the meeting is clearly 7 Furrion (Bet Now: $3.80), formerly with Darren Weir but is now with the Hayes/Dabernig team. This bloke had a mixed Spring prep, where he showed Group l potential at one stage but when crept up to 2000m+, he couldn’t quite get the job done. Now with a new stable, the Wodonga trial was good but I loved the way closed off in a jumpout here last week. Think he’s ready to go fresh.
Fascinating runner is 1 Grunt (Bet Now: $3.30), who is on the All Star Mile path. His best would see him spank this field…but at his best, he needs a fast tempo and a big track. When he doesn’t get that, he looks like a benchmark horse, so he’s here mainly on the class factor, and he has looked good in trials/work. But it’s all about raceday and what he can produce against this lot.
I could be an absolute tool for including him, but I want to give 11 Poetic Dream (Bet Now: $11.00) one last look. He returns to racing as a gelding. This time last year, the stable had aspirations he could be a Doncaster horse before going down the Cox Plate path. The jumpouts said he could be anything but on race day, he raced like a camel. Been gelded and the trials have been good once again. One look as a gelding and if no good, it’s a life ban.
Race 7. (14:10) Blamey Stakes 1600m
I think this is just about D-Day for 5 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $12.00) to find out if he truly belongs at this level and higher, or does he need to come down a bit in grade. Australia Stakes run was good behind Whispering Brook before going to the CF Orr and despite sitting back in a very slowly run race, I thought he was a tad disappointing behind Manuel. Flemington, 1600m, fitter…all points to him just about winning. Hopefully he can.
11 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $6.00) did an unbelievable job over 1400m here two weeks ago. He a near sub 46 speed first 800m and really had every right to drop off but he kept finding and in the end it was only Streets Of Avalon with the soft trip in behind that beat him. Just has to stretch that out to the mile but if he lands on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he can be dangerous.
Interesting to see what 8 Mighty Boss (Bet Now: $20.00) does. The Caulfield Guineas winner has to remain at this level for the rest of his career due to that win and since then, his form had been terrible, but I thought there was merit in his resumption behind Streets Of Avalon, sticking on well for fourth. The theory is that he could be a 2000m+ horse, so interesting to see what he does at the mile.
Race 8. (14:45) Australian Guineas 1600m
Cracking, cracking race with a stack of winning chances. It was hard not to be impressed by the first up win of 14 Amphitrite (Bet Now: $4.50) in the Vanity, getting the dream sit behind the speed before Williams angled into clear air and from around the 300m onwards it was a pretty painless watch if you were on. Think she’ll be better suited at the mile and has room to improve I’d suspect. One of the leading chances for sure.
4 Ringerdingding (Bet Now: $7.50) has to be regarded as one of the hardest to beat. His run in the Futurity last Saturday was excellent. Never really a winning chance given where he was in the run but closed off with real purpose late and did clock the fastest final 200m of the entire day. He’ll eat up a Flemington mile, back to his own age and always love a Waller horse on the seven day back up.
Gee the horse at stupid odds for mine is 1 Extra Brut (Bet Now: $14.00). He was one of several hard luck stories in the CS Hayes. He was first up and under pressure from Walker early on in the straight but did pick up and was looking to build late but had no clear air late and went to the line under a hold. Fast run mile, three wide cover, peel to the outside and let down looks an ideal recipe for this bloke, who is the proven big time performer of this field.
Race 9. (15:20) Furphy Stakes 1400m
I think if 14 Clarice Cliffs (Bet Now: $2.70) is going to be Stakes class, it’ll be now while she’s hard fit compared to the majority who have eyes on better things. Her win under the lights at Pakenham last time was something else. Bolted in by six, ran record time, sub 34 for her last 600m while on speed. She gets a soft draw here and likely stalks Shoko. I think she’s worth a gamble.
1 Aristia (Bet Now: $13.00) is the Oaks winning filly that returns to racing having not raced since that triumph in the Spring. On the Australian Oaks path and looks to have come back well if the recent jumpout here is any guide where she was near the speed throughout before being clicked up and responding well. Obviously will be better over further, but has class/quality on her side.
7 Sheezdashing (Bet Now: $8.50) is a mare I couldn’t back to win with confidence but she can sprint well fresh. The Ellerton/Zahra stable are flying at the moment and this girl, though with a poor winning strike rate, has ran alongside and behind some quality animals. Responded well when ridden out in a recent jumpout here, so perhaps there is intent to run well first up? Market will be the guide.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Two Number 5 Schabau
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 2 Yulong Savings
LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 10 Write Your Name
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 7, 9, 11, 12
Leg Two: 1, 5, 6, 8, 11
Leg Three: 1, 4, 6, 14
Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 14
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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