Ten races will be run and won at Eagle Farm on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Cup 🏆: View our Melbourne Cup Tips
Race 1. (12:13) Tab Hcp (c6) 1830m
Can only see upside with 1 Sir Barnabus (Bet Now: $3.10). He was very good fresh at Doomben behind Oink which made him a good thing in my eyes over this track/distance three weeks back and that’s how it panned out, finishing best under Cahill to win. Reckon a step up in trip will do him the world of good eventually, but remaining at 1800m, he still looks to have enough speed in the legs.
5 Tatcee (Bet Now: $2.20) is on the seven day back up for Chris Waller after racing at this track/distance last Saturday where I thought Fradd gave her a peach of a steer and she looked the winner, but couldn’t quite finish it off when beaten a lip by Missed The Alarm, who had a 7.5kg weight swing and in the end, that was the difference. She’s flying this girl and will go close again.
2 Endless Days (Bet Now: $9.00) is on the seven day back up for the Hulbert stable after racing over this track/distance last Saturday in an open handicap where he was far from disgraced in defeat behind Fighting Teo, who would be near odds on against this line up, so that form reads well and the run prior in the Warwick Cup was a beauty. Claim for Thompson helps too.
Race 2. (12:52) Orthochick Hcp 1000m
7 Wisdom Of Water (Bet Now: $1.80) gets the nod just. Team Edmonds trains this Headwater colt, on debut off the back of two trials, the latest coming on Monday at the Gold Coast when winning by a space and running good time, which followed another impressive trial win at the Sunny Coast. Looks to be well educated for start one and has had a decent grounding for start one.
1 Rothfire (Bet Now: $2.45) is a Rob Heathcoate trained youngster that was a notable drifter late in betting when debuting over this track/distance two weeks ago but showed brilliant early toe to lead the field up, then showed good ticker late when challenged to cling on and win, beating what I think is a good filly in Gotta Kiss. Has race experience and that will carry him a long way.
6 Way Beyond (Bet Now: $12.00) is a son of Spill The Beans having start one for Stuart Kendrick. This bloke trialled last Tuesday over 850m at the Sunny Coast and though pushed out to run a narrow second, he did respond and responded well in a trial which was run in okay time relative to the 2YO trials. Stable is having a good run at the moment, so keen to see how he goes.
Race 3. (13:32) Mt Alvernia College Plate (c6) 1000m
1 Capital Connection (Bet Now: $1.80) is a talented animal for Tony Gollan that’s in winning form and I really like him back to the five furlongs at Eagle Farm. He was ridden aggressively from the outset to lead over the 1110m at Doomben five weeks ago, back to his younger days when he was a leader, and he bolted in. Just needs to handle the class rise to go close to winning again.
3 Piracy (Bet Now: $3.70) is an interesting runner. Former James Cummings trained galloper that is having his first run for the Sears camp, having not raced since leading throughout and landing bets at odds at Warwick Farm in a race which had much stronger depth than what he faces here. If he runs up to that, he likely wins, but first run for new stable, just want to watch.
5 Truculent (Bet Now: $26.00) is a Gary Duncan trained sprinter where his better days are probably behind him, but can add value to exotics here. He ran over 1000m at the Sunny Coast last start where he had three wide cover before peeling out into clear air and finding the line well behind the in form Wirnpa. Doubt he wins, but he can fill a trifecta/first four spot.
Race 4. (14:12) Tonic Design Plate (c3) 1000m
Going the way of 9 Contemptuous (Bet Now: $4.60), who resumes for the Steve O’Dea stable. This guy hasn’t raced since his debut on March 25 at Grafton when leading throughout, bolting up and running decent time. Form out of that maiden has been okay and looks like he will come on from the recent Sunny Coast trial when leading and just feeling the pinch late.
5 Vienna Power (Bet Now: $6.00) is a son of Snitzel for Tony Gollan that was confidently backed when resuming at this track/distance two weeks back when on speed and giving a good kick under Jim Byrne, but being first up and in front, his condition just gave way late when third to stablemate Shalwa. Should take good improvement off that and prove hard to beat.
2 Duke Of Frederick (Bet Now: $67.00) has done a really good job this time in for the Carolyn Halliday stable at Murwillumbah. Finished best to win two back at Ballina before racing at this track/distance a fortnight ago and worked to the line well late from off the pace to run fifth to the handy Gollan runner Shalwa. Hopefully can sit a pair closer in the run and prove hard to beat.
Race 5. (14:52) Hillross Montefiore Plate (c3) 1000m
3 Hollaback Girl (Bet Now: $4.00) back to 1000m and on speed, she’ll be hard to run down. Tony Gollan trains this mare, who showed really good sustained speed from the front over 1100m at Ipswich and was impressive in winning. Like her back to 1000m where she likely leads this field and though perhaps a tad suspect late, she’ll have a margin and hopefully hold on.
8 Enterprise Louise (Bet Now: $4.20) is a daughter of Show A Heart that resumes for the Mick Lakey team. This mare hasn’t raced since her 3YO days when running some decent races in 3YO handicaps in town and was far from disgraced for the most part. Can sprint well fresh, has a touch of quality about her and if she’s within range on the turn, she’ll be strong at the end.
2 Goononya Sonja (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Lindsay Gough trained mare who I like back to 1000m after racing over 1200m here two weeks ago when just off the speed and trying hard when third to Dreamreacher. Returns to mares grade, gets a soft run from the barrier once again and is racing very consistently at the moment, so she has to be rated a winning chance.
Race 6. (15:37) Aitkenvale Family Health Ctre 1200m
7 Ready To Roam (Bet Now: $3.60) looks well placed up to 1200m for Tony Gollan. He resumed over 1000m here three weeks ago where he was back off the speed and took a little while to get into his work but found the line strongly to just miss out on the win when a narrow second. Yet to be proven at six furlongs, but off the resumption, he should eat it up.
I’ve been really disappointed in 1 The Odyssey (Bet Now: $5.50) this prep but last start was better. He was coming back to 1000m and I was really keen on his chances. Jimmy Orman gave him a 12/10 steer and for mine, if he was going any good, he should have put them away, but couldn’t, and just missed in a three way go. But he found positive form and can hold it.
Back to 1200m should suit the Matty Dunn trained 2 Xanthus (Bet Now: $7.00). He ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when on speed and trying hard, but couldn’t see out the seven furlongs when fourth to talented filly Gem Of Scotland. Win prior over this trip at Doomben was impressive and I think sprint trips are his go in life. Not sure what upside he has left but has the right racing pattern.
Race 7. (16:27) Weareco Hcp (70) 1600m
Bludger of a race. Landed with 5 Gregory (Bet Now: $14.00) for Brian Smith. Had his first look at the mile last star at Doomben and did a good job I thought, working home well to run a narrow second to the then in form Cullingworth. You’d like to think he will be better for the run at the trip and this does look a very thin, so he doesn’t need to improve too much to win.
12 Francisca (Bet Now: $3.00)…gee she’s been frustrating to watch and follow this time in. Three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here when back off the pace and never really looked a winning threat, but did make ground. Been a while between drinks for her, and personally, I couldn’t back her to win, but she will win one of these races sooner rather than later.
10 Cabin Fever (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Gillian Heinrich trained mare who has a bit of upside I think given she’s only fourth up here. She ran over 1300m on her home track at the Gold Coast last time out where she looked to have every chance but battled away pretty well in defeat behind Elixir. Little query at 1600m, but racing as if it will be okay and the lack of depth here gives her a chance.
Race 8. (17:08) Lite N' Easy (rs0mw) 1200m
4 Valario (Bet Now: $5.00) looks one of the better bets on the card I think. Impressive first up winner at the Sunny Coast before racing at this track/distance two weeks ago where he got too far back in the run from the wide gate but still made up okay ground late in the piece behind Tambo’s Mate, who won last Saturday to tick that form off. Can sit closer in the run from the good draw, lack of depth…think he wins.
3 Comic Story (Bet Now: $11.00) is a son of Real Saga for Gillian Heinrich that resumes. This gelding hasn’t raced since May 25 on his home track at the Gold Coast when getting the suck run in behind the speed before getting clear air in the straight under Luke Dittman and finished best to score. Good recent trial at Beaudesert, lands on speed and will be hard to run down I think.
5 Sanglier (Bet Now: $9.50) hasn’t been too bad this prep in three runs and a win isn’t far away. He was most disappointing two back behind Desert Man but that form has been ticked off big time via Soxagon. Sanglier then raced again at Doomben and was much better when third to Copywriter, sticking to the task in defeat. Not sure he wins here, but he’s one for multiples.
Race 9. (17:52) Padua College (bm75) 1400m
I think 12 Dreamreacher (Bet Now: $3.60) will have no trouble stepping up to 1400m. He ran over 1200m here two weeks ago where he was put into a lovely spot by Brad Stewart just off the speed and once he got into clear air, it was race over and he won comfortably, with something in hand. That’s why 1400m, I think, will be fine for him, and this is a winnable race.
15 Erringhi Spring (Bet Now: $6.50) is an in form mare for Barry Lockwood that has won her past two. Just got there to win two back at the Gold Coast before going to the Doomben midweeks where she got the suck run nearer the inside before angling into clear air and dashing clear late while her main rivals were out the back and spotting an impossible start. Harder here, but should run well.
7 A Man To Match (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Tony Gollan trained four year old that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since the Queensland Derby when pulling up with Atrial Fibrillation, finishing tailed off last behind Mr Quickie. Has had the benefit of two trials and while 1400m is short of his best, he does have a fair bit of class on his side compared to this bunch.
Race 10. (18:32) Brc Memberships Hcp 1400m
Up to 1400m, 16 Victory Eight (Bet Now: $18.00) is a big improver. He resumed over 1200m here two weeks ago, a trip clearly short of his best hence why he started $21, but did get to the line pretty well I thought behind Cool Sequence in what was an encouraging return. 1600m+ is when he’ll come into his own, but the resumption was good enough for me to include him.
2 Doubt Defying (Bet Now: $20.00) is a Not A Single doubt gelding for the Kacy Fogden stable that resumes. This bloke was formerly with Steve O’Dea but is now with Fogden. Hasn’t raced since the Villiers in the Summer when a game fifth to Sky Boy, beaten a couple of lengths. Has had three trials in readiness for his return, so I don’t think he’ll be lacking fitness.
8 Mighty Lucky (Bet Now: $34.00) has had a few homes in recent times but is now with David Murphy. He last ran over the mile at Randwick when the shifty track wasn’t to his liking and he couldn’t dash behind Dealmaker. Should get a firm deck here and his runs prior behind Rock in the Cameron and behind Age Of Chivalry were very good. A win here wouldn’t totally shock.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 4 Valario
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 1 Sir Barnabus
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 16 Victory Eight
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 5, 7, 9, 10, 12
Leg Two: 4
Leg Three: 7, 10, 12, 15
Leg Four: 2, 8, 10, 16
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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