Nine races will be run and won at Caulfield on Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (12:55) Carol Watson (bm70) 1400m
1 Impecunious (Bet Now: $2.25 TOP ODDS) does look an Oaks filly. Loaded with talent and class it appears. Made her Australian debut over 1200m here at the midweeks and she rounded them up from the back like they were second rate and to be fair, compared to her, they were second rate. She’s got enormous upside and improvement to come and looks the one to beat.
Third up from a break, think it’s an ideal race for the Price/Kent filly 2 Sensationalisation (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS). Resumed with a slick maiden win over 1300m at Geelong before going to 1400m at Flemington where she had a good run just off the speed and loomed large to win. Just couldn’t peg back Zou Dancer, who was impressive on the line. Feel this girl has more upside to come and is on her home track.
4 Bella Tiara (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have her share of talent for Matty Williams. Impressive maiden win two back on her home track at Warrnambool before going to Flemington where she got back to near last in the run and found the line nicely when third to Zou Dancer. Off that effort, has to be respected here.
Race 2. (13:30) Vin Quirk (bm64) 1400m
Waddle your finger and hope for the best here. Going for one at odds with 19 Magnossiva(Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS). Griffiths/De Kock gelding that has been given a few weeks off since being far from disgraced at Sandown when fifth to Fundraiser, who of course won well yesterday. Four winners have come out of that race, so the form is very good, he draws to get three wide cover and be strong at the end.
1 Campese… (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) can he be trusted? Several weeks between runs when racing at this track/distance at the midweeks and given the race shape, I thought his effort from the back was outstanding when second to Jazz Star. If he can reproduce that here, off a more genuine tempo, he’ll take some beating.
2 Oberland (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) has the Nathan Hobson polish and should be given respect here. Drops to a 64 from racing in a 70 at Bendigo last time out, working home strongly from the back to run second to Regardsmaree. His three runs back from a break have each been quite solid and good enough to go close against these.
Race 3. (14:05) Jodie Burgess (bm70) 2400m
Pretty keen here on 6 Coin Collector (Bet Now: $3.30 TOP ODDS). Danny O’Brien trained gelding who does have a very good 2000m+ record. Continued that at Bendigo last time out over 2200m, sitting on speed before being clicked up by Lane and he dashed clear in the straight, bolting up by over three lengths. 2400m here is no issue, should get cover from the gate and think he’s the one to beat.
12 Lady In The Sky (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is racing in very good form at the moment for the Michael Moroney team. Loved the way she toughed it out to win at Sandown last start given she was wide and doing work for a portion of the race and was there to be run down, but showed good ticker late to win. Harder here, but like the way she’s going about it.
5 Pissaro (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) doesn’t have the turn of foot but will stay all day so he’ll want a truly run 2400m. He found a truly run 3000m at the Valley last start and kept whacking away without really threatening behind surprise winner Steam Roller. Williams is back on and he rode the horse to victory two back. Knockout chance.
Race 4. (14:40) Warren Moore (bm70) 1200m
1 Zabelarina (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) does seem to race best on the fresh side so the six weeks between runs I don’t mind. That run six weeks ago was on Ballarat Cup Day when on speed doing work and sticking on well in defeat behind Snapdancer in what is turning out to be a red hot form race. With the claim, she’s beautifully in and I like her alot here.
We just keep waiting for 9 Housay (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) to have the end of prep run. The signs were there that the run in the greys race during Cup Week was the end of the prep run, but his run at the Valley was excellent. Loved the way he closed off, but I will say that race rated poorly for the day. He’s progressive, got talent…market will be fascinating.
6 Heyington Station (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) has always showed a bit of quality since day one. Several weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m at the Valley when back near last early before peeling wide to sit on speed no cover. There to be run down but showed good ticker late to fend them off and win. Off that effort, has to be respected here.
Race 5. (15:20) Iris O'farrell (bm70) 1100m
Good test here for 12 Lani Bang Bang (Bet Now: $5.50), but don’t think there was any fluke about the way she spanked them fresh over 1100m at Kyneton. Sat off a good speed before peeling into clear air. Took a little while to get into her work, but the last 75-100m, she really savaged the line and was impressive. Off that, think she can measure up to these.
4 Excelida (Bet Now: $8.00) can win this, but backing her to win is another thing. She has threatened to win races for some time, but just can’t quite put it together and keeps finding one or two better. Back to Mares grade and back to a fast run 1100m looks an ideal recipe. Can you back her with confidence to get the job done?
7 Lady Brook (Bet Now: $14.00) deserves another chance. Thought she was good in defeat two back at the Valley before going down the straight at Flemington where she didn’t appear to handle the track at all behind Paul’s Regret. Draws wide, but has gate speed to come across and the claim helps.
Race 6. (16:00) Erin Coldham (bm70) 1100m
6 Dickin Medal (Bet Now: $3.40) looks a smart animal for James Cummings and think he can make it 2/2 to start his career. Debuted over 1100m at Geelong when heavily backed and loved the way he attacked the line late under Olly to win and win well in fast overall time. Comes straight to town, but looks city class for sure.
8 Zion (Bet Now: $4.50) should prove hard to beat here for the Maher/Eustace camp. Not sure what Johnny Allen was thinking with this guy at Flemington last time but no doubt in my mind that a half decent steer and he wins the race instead of a close up third to Written Miss. Looks to have come back in good order and should prove one of the hardest to beat.
10 Hickok (Bet Now: $15.00) back to 1100m I think is a positive. Resumed down the straight at Flemington a fortnight ago when on speed and pulling quite hard, which ensured he had nothing left for his finale, finishing down the track behind Written Miss. He’s been most effective at the 1000m/1100m range, so with that in mind, think he’s a definite winning chance.
Race 7. (16:40) Travis Stillman (bm78) 1400m
2 Sebarate (Bet Now: $12.00) can win again. Hayes/Dabernig trained gelding that had good backing at odds when racing at Flemington two weeks ago. Put into a lovely spot just off the speed under Lewis German and once he popped him into clear air, he surged hard late and was too good. That race rated well for the meeting, so up to a 78 race is no issue.
Always have to respect Robbie Griffiths and his runners this time of year, so giving enormous respect to 8 King Magnus (Bet Now: $4.60). Ran over 1400m at Flemington a fortnight ago when on speed and trying his guts out. Just couldn’t quite get the job done when beaten narrowly by Sebarate. Think that form reads well enough for a race like this.
7 Grinzinger Allee (Bet Now: $5.50) is a son of Reliable Man resuming for the Danny O’Brien camp. This gelding hasn’t raced since July 25 over 2400m here when back and running on just fair behind High Emocean. Tends to save his best for early on in a prep and his two jumpouts to get ready have been more than encouraging.
Race 8. (17:20) Mia Tiernan (bm84) 1100m
Hard to get away from 9 Sword Of Mercy (Bet Now: $4.00). Yes, was only a 78 she won fresh at Flemington down the straight over 1000m, but there was a bit of class/quality about the way she did it and the time suggested it was a very sharp return. Good second up record and don’t seen an extra 100m being an issue for her.
Is 1 Terbium (Bet Now: $2.80) back? Just under two years ago, he looked a potential Group l horse, but the wheels well and truly fell off and he has struggled to find positive form. That was the case until his first up run at Gawler two weeks ago. Was four wide no cover for the trip but he ambled to the front and dashed clear late like it was a barrier trial. If he brings that here, he’ll go close.
11 Pariano (Bet Now: $12.00) is a short course specialist and looks well suited here. Hayes/Dabernig trained mare that was first up a few weeks ago over 1000m at Pakenham. Was near the hot speed throughout and given she was fresh, she was entitled to knock up late but kept finding and was good in defeat. Think she’s hard to beat here second up.
Race 9. (17:55) Virginia Meyer (bm84) 1600m
14 Aussie Nugget (Bet Now: $4.20) is the interesting one. Team Freedman trained gelding that was several weeks between runs when racing over the mile at Flemington two weeks ago in what was a fast run race. He was off the bit before the turn but stayed on and was sound in defeat behind Long Arm. Interesting to see how he goes remaining at the mile.
13 Walking Flying (Bet Now: $7.00) is racing like she wants 2000m, but she’s going well and is a leading contender here. Ran over the mile at Flemington two weeks ago and liked the way she finished her race off from the back behind Lunakorn. Interesting to see where she gets to in the run from the draw, but she’s nearing a win.
Fitter and up to the mile I do like for 11 Five Kingdom (Bet Now: $23.00). Resumed over 1400m at Flemington where he was back near last in the run and never really threatened but in saying that wasn’t too bad in defeat for a horse wanting further, which he gets here, so think he can run a much improved race at odds.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Three Number 6 Coin Collector
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 9 Sword Of Mercy
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 1 Zabelarina
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 6, 8, 10
Leg Two: 2, 6, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 9
Leg Four: 8, 11, 13, 14
$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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