Day two of the Championships at Randwick this Saturday will all evolve around one race- the $4 Million Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m). It is the race we have been talking about for months, and although the star of the show, Fiorente, won’t be lining up, it will still be a fascinating contest, with the likes of Silent Achiever, It’s A Dundeel, Boban and last weeks Doncaster winner Sacred Falls all set to take their place in the richest race Sydney has to offer.
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Race One (12:10) : Adina Apartment Hotels Fernhill Handicap 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Veuvelicious (Best Odds: $2.15) looks the one here. If she is to go towards the Champagne next week, she has to win this and win it well. Her run at Rosehill was very good I thought given she lost all momentum when getting around the home turn, then picked up late and ran through the line strongly, so a wet track won’t cause any concerns, the bigger surroundings of Randwick suit and is up to the mile.
Big Danger: Really interested to note that Standoubt (Best Odds: $9.00) was a scratching from a midweek maiden at Kensington in preference for this, so the stable must have some confidence. Debut run at Warwick Farm was excellent, the run of a horse who wants further asap, and he gets that here. Stable is having a fab run with their youngsters, and this colt looks one of them.
Roughie: Gouldian (Best Odds: $8.00) ran fourth in that Warwick Farm race that Standoubt ran third in, and he was quite good also, making up ground. Very similar to Standoubt in the sense that they both will appreciate the Randwick mile and definitely goes in as a chance.
Race Two (12:45) : McGrath Real Estate Agents South Pacific Classic 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Fast ‘N’ Rocking (Best Odds: $7.50) looks thrown in at the weights for me. I will concede he is one of the most frustrating horses to follow, nearly in the same ilk as Von Costa De Hero, which is saying something. In saying that, I really liked his run in the Darby Munro behind Sidestep, and it was the first sign of any form since winning the McNeil back in the Spring. A repeat effort from Rosehill will see him go very close to winning this.
Big Danger: Woodbine (Best Odds: $4.20) is one of the best bred gallopers going around at the moment, being by Hussonet out of former champion filly Miss Finland. He was last seen in the Pharlap Stakes, running a battling sixth to Traitor. Has since been freshened and looked very sharp in winning a recent Randwick barrier trial. Certainly capable of winning.
Roughie: Longma (Best Odds: $4.40) was enormous in his first run for Gai Waterhouse at Warwick Farm, sitting four wide with no cover at the back before peeling wider on the turn and rattling home late for second. In the Spring he wasn’t far off the likes of Charlie Boy and Eclair Big Bang, and that is pretty good form for a race like this.
Race Three (13:20) : Girvan Waugh Royal Randwick Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: I am very keen on the chances of Amicus (Best Odds: $7.50) in this race. Her last start may have only been a midweek maiden at Kensington, but the manner in which he did it and the time she ran on a rain affected track tells me that a good race is well within her reach. Was nominated for the Sires last week, so obviously Waller has a big opinion of her.
Big Danger: Oakleigh Girl (Best Odds: $6.50) was fantastic in the Slipper given she was first up, copped an enormous amount of pressure in front, and only got tired the final furlong. The only query is whether or not there is anything left in the tank given she was 100% primed for the Slipper. Still, a massive threat.
Roughie: The Randwick 1200m should suit Clifton Red (Best Odds: $12.00) perfectly here. I thought her run in the Magic Night was excellent given she was a long way back on the turn and made up a stack of ground late to run fifth to Bring Me The Maid. A fast run 1200m should allow this filly to get back, peel wide and charge late.
Race Four (13:55) : Arrowfield Royal Sovereign Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for some value in the shape of Thump (Best Odds: $11.00), who was a strong winner of the Surround, beating home Lucia Valentina, then came out and was only beaten just over two lengths in the William Reid by Spirit Of Boom. Loves the sting out of the track, gets the weight pull on the boys and looks a great each-way bet.
Big Danger: Sidestep (Best Odds: $3.60) isn’t very genuine, but he did get the job done last time out in the Darby Munro. I think once/if he is gelded, you’ll see a superstar, but he still has enough class and raw talent to beat these.
Roughie: $6.50 is the wrong price for Bounding (Best Odds: $4.80), and I’ll definitely be having something on her at that price. She is a Group l winner against open company only two starts back in the Railway. She was freshened up and had an easy kill, and ran extremely good time carrying 57kg. She is the best sprinting filly New Zealand has to offer, and her racing pattern of sitting on the pace will help given there doesn’t appear to be much speed engaged apart from the top tip.
Race Five (14:30) : Cellarbrations Queen Of The Turf Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I think this is the race where Catkins (Best Odds: $3.50) will take over from Red Tracer as the benchmark mare in Australia. She didn’t look to get through the going all that well when winning the Emancipation, but her class was just too good. The winkers are on and the blinkers are off, which Waller and Bowman believes will help her run a strong mile. She is the best mare in the race, so she goes on top.
Big Danger: Red Tracer (Best Odds: $4.25) was horrible in the George Ryder after receiving every chance in the run by Rodd. She has enough credits in the bank for me to forgive her for that flop. Went back to the trials and was very good, hitting the line strongly. She is closer to the end than the beginning, but has enough class and heart to win.
Roughie: The lack of any real speed in the race brings Solicit (Best Odds: $6.00) right into the mix here. She could not have been ridden better by Chad in the Vinery, but was outstayed late by Lucia Valentina. For a Randwick mile on a wet track, you need a tough horse who either has the class/brilliance or a horse who can run a strong 2000m, and Solicit is the latter.
Race Six (15:05) : ATC Australian Oaks 2400m Form Guide
Back Me: The obvious pick from the Rosehill Guineas into the Derby was Criterion, and I think the obvious pick from the Vinery into this is clearly Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $2.30). She was given a plum steer by Bowman, cutting the corner and saving all the ground in the world, yet in the straight she appeared to do it very comfortably, and charged through the line, so 2400m won’t be an issue, and provided she has done everything right since, she looks the winner.
Big Danger: Macca himself admitted he slaughtered Rising Romance (Best Odds: $6.50) in the Vinery, and actually said to connections it was his worst ever ride in a Group l. Her run was still very good, and her run in the NZ Derby behind Puccini was unbelievable. She is certainly capable of winning this race provided the breaks go her way.
Roughie: Zanbagh (Best Odds: $5.00) was a dominant winner of the Keith Nolan at Kembla, then got too far back from the wide gate in a slowly run race, but still managed to run a credible fifth. She has been crying out for this race since her trial back in early February, and she should be ready to show her brilliant best.
Race Seven (15:45) : Schweppes Sydney Cup 3200m Form Guide
Back Me: The Offer (Best Odds: $3.50) spanked his rivals last week in the Chairmans and ran through the line as if he’ll have no issues with the 3200m. Should be at his peak now, loves the sting out of the track, in form, hard to beat. Special: The Offer at $4
Big Danger: The biggest street corner tip you will ever hear is for this kiwi stayer Who Shot Thebarman (Best Odds: $8.00). Every man and his dog is declaring this, and looking at his previous runs, it is hard to argue with the fact he is well above average. His win in the Auckland Cup was dominant, and it deserved a trip across. Given Australians haven’t seen him race here, he is probably overs at the $7.50 mark, but he is certainly capable of winning.
Roughie: Epingle (Best Odds: $18.00) was scratched from the Chairmans last week after looking well placed in that event. Given she has residual fitness from Tassie and from her run at Rosehill, I doubt missing that run last week will ruin her chances. She is a very good staying mare who loves the mud and is trained by a master of stayers in Mick Kent.
Race Eight (16:25) : Longines Queen Elizabeth Stakes 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Got to stick with giant killing mare Silent Achiever (Best Odds: $4.60), who is at the moment the giant of Australasian racing and arguably the best in the business at 2000m+. She was given a lovely steer by Nash to win the BMW, and really it was a very dominant win. Nothing in that race will turn the tables on her here, and the only danger, in my opinion, is the one down below. Clear horse to beat. Again taking on It’s A Dundeel.
Big Danger: Carlton House (Best Odds: $6.00) is back to his best form based on how well he ran behind Silent Achiever in the Ranvet a month back. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent trial behind Arabian Gold just to tick along for this. It’d be quite remarkable if the Queen’s horse could win the race named in her honour. He is certainly going to be in the mix.
Roughie: Hawkspur (Best Odds: $12.00) was the real eye catcher last week in the Doncaster, making up many lengths to run fourth to Sacred Falls. He will love the rise to 2000m, he can handle the quick back up, and is starting to find his best form, which is good enough to win this.
Race Nine (17:05) : Drummond Golf Sapphire Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Dystopia (Best Odds: $5.50), like Fast ‘N’ Rocking earlier in the day, just looks thrown in at the weights. Here is a multiple stakes winner and a recent Group l performer who only has to carry 55kg and only 1kg over the minimum. Races well fresh, loves the wet, along with Randwick and the 1200m. Looks one of the better bets on the prorgram.
Big Danger: The biggest tip ever during the Spring was Peron (Best Odds: $5.50) after a brilliant barrier trial, but she didn’t quite live up to it and was somewhat of a failure. Hasn’t trialled this prep, so we are guessing a bit as to how forward she is, but I suspect Brisbane is where she is going, so I’d suspect whatever she does here, she will improve on, but is too classy to dismiss.
Roughie: Chad gets a chance to redeem himself on Plucky Belle (Best Odds: $3.90) given he probably didn’t produce his best effort on her last start in the Birthday Card, getting badly held up in the straight and savaging the line late for a most unlucky second. Takes on a couple of good mares here, but has the race fitness and is a second up winner.
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Best Bet: Race Six Number 2 Lucia Valentina (Best Odds: $2.30)
Next Best: Race Nine Number 1 Dystopia (Best Odds: $5.50)
Best Roughie: Race Four Number 10 Thump (Best Odds: $11.00)
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 3
Leg Two: 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 14
Leg Three: 5, 6, 10, 11
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 7
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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