It challenges any raceday on the Australian calendar given there are five Group l races, but Golden Slipper Day at Rosehill is finally here with all the focus on the Mick Price pair of Extreme Choice and Flying Artie, both of which have drawn well. The weather is fine, the track is soft (5) and the rail is out two metres for the entire circuit. Also take note that the quaddie is still on races six through to nine.
Race One (12:40) : Nathan’s Famous Epona Stakes 1900m:
Back Me: 10 Blendwell (Best Odds: $19.00) is absolutely flying at the moment, but just isn’t getting luck. She also comes through the Aspiration where she made up ground late in restricted room behind Heavens Above. If there was any rain about on Slipper Day, I’d declare her, but if the track dries out, I still think she is ripping chance and is the value in the race.
Big Danger: 2 Heavens Above (Best Odds: $4.00) was given a lovely steer from Christian Reith to win the lead up to this at Randwick, the Aspiration (1600m), wearing down All Cerise to win narrowly but impressively. She’ll have no trouble with the rise in trip, has upside, looks the one to beat and is one of the better bets on a tough program.
Roughie: 5 All Cerise (Best Odds: $4.60) has her first crack beyond the mile, but given the vein of form she is in, it’s hard to ignore her. She was given a brilliant front running steer from Bowman in that race mentioned above and kicked on strongly but just found one better. She meets Heavens Above 6kg better off here, so on that basis, she is a major threat.
Race Two (13:15) : Irresistible Pools & Spas N E Manion Cup 2400m:
Back Me: You find it hard to tip against 4 Libran (Best Odds: $1.55), who was ridden to perfection by Avdulla to win at Randwick last time out, and there looked to be a bit of upside with him given he sort of floated in front when he he got there and when he was challenged by Allergic, he kicked on very strongly to win. This looks a touch easier and with normal luck, he should just about take care of these.
BIg Danger: 2 Auvray (Best Odds: $3.80) was a real eye catcher behind Libran. She was making his Australian debut and though there was no turn of foot, she stuck to her guns very strongly to run fourth. There is enormous upside with her, she’ll eat up the 2400m and is a must include in exotics.
Roughie: 8 Another Cocktail (Best Odds: $10.00) has been a nightmare to follow for punters. He has pretty much been supported at every start he has had in Australia and continues to let punters down. The saving grace is that he is back up in trip, seven day back up, which Chris Waller has a great strike rate at doing, and perhaps a track with give in it will suit.
Race Three (13:50) : The Sebring 1200m:
Back Me: 14 Egyptian Symbol (Best Odds: $7.00) was excellent in the Fireball (1100m), making up solid ground late to run third to all the way winner Redzel. It was somewhat of a negative ride from Avdulla there and she really had no hope. I hope she can ridden more positively here, and with some luck in running, she’ll be hard to hold out late.
Big Danger: 8 Flippant (Best Odds: $6.50) is a talented filly for Team Snowden who comes here off the back of a solid fourth to Mahuta in the Magic Millions Guineas (1400m) at the Gold Coast. Freshened up and has trialled well, and I also think back to 1200m suits her, so she is a definite winning prospect.
Roughie: 4 Puritan (Best Odds: $16.00) is potentially the best horse in the race but he can be a real fruit loop upstairs. He scored a brilliant win in the Manfred first up (Palentino comes through that race) before going to the Zeditave where he worked home strongly behind Santa Ana Lane. He does meet that horse 1.5kg better off here and perhaps racing the Sydney could see him straighten out.
Race Four (14:30) : Ranvet Stakes 2000m:
Back Me: 7 Storm The Stars (Best Odds: $9.00) was an eye catcher at his Australian debut in the Chipping Norton, where he ran well in restricted room to run seventh to stablemate Winx. In his UK days, he did race up on the speed, so I’d like to see that happen here, because it does seem he doesn’t have a turn of foot, but he will keep on all day, and those tactics could well prove to be successful.
Big Danger: 4 Hauraki (Best Odds: $3.50) has been excellent in two runs this time in. He sat worse than midfield in the Chipping Norton (1600m) and worked home with purpose late when third to Winx. Third up at 2000m is perfect and this looks a very winnable edition of the Ranvet, and third up last time in he went within a lip of beating Complacent in the Craven Plate (2000m) at Randwick.
Roughie: 2 Mongolian Khan (Best Odds: $10.00) was specked at odds when resuming in the Chipping Norton and was pretty plain I thought behind Winx, but he was first up off a serious bout of colic. Trialled last Thursday at Warwick Farm and worked home strongly despite finishing last, but was strong through the line. He can bounce back here.
Race Five (15:10) : China Horse Club George Ryder Stakes 1500m:
Back Me: It’s very hard to see anything other than a win for star mare 5 Winx (Best Odds: $1.80), who was simply breathtaking in winning the Chipping Norton (1600m) last time out at Randwick, and was just plainly dominant. Worked between races here last Saturday and it was work of a horse who could well remain unbeaten this Autumn. Only bad luck will see her lose.
Big Danger: Many thought 8 Press Statement (Best Odds: $5.00) was unlucky not to win the Randwick Guineas (1600m) last time out, but I thought he had his chance to gun down Le Romain. With this horse, as we saw in the Golden Rose in the Spring, he is a horse who can’t win if pocketed. He needs to build up momentum and I think provided he doesn’t get pocketed here, he’ll take some beating in a pretty solid edition of this great race.
Roughie: 4 Happy Clapper (Best Odds: $34.00) ran fourth in the Canterbury Stakes and I thought his effort was the best of the race given it was his first crack at WFA, he was first up and like First Seal, the pace wasn’t ideal. He is my tip for the Doncaster, so hopefully this run will top him off beautifully and look for him to attack as he head towards the big mile at Randwick.
Race Six (15:50) : Sky Racing Rosehill Guineas 2000m:
Back Me: 1 Tarzino (Best Odds: $3.00) looks the banker for the program. His two runs in Melbourne have been unbelievable, most notably last time out in the Australian Guineas (1600m) when a narrow second to Palentino after covering a stack of ground. He is clearly looking for further, which he gets here, fitter, class…Anything longer than $1.50 and I’d happily anchor him in multis. Just wins here.
Big Danger: 6 Gold Ambition (Best Odds: $12.00) comes through the Randwick Guineas (1600m) where his effort was very good I thought behind Le Romain. He got checked a touch early on in the race yet peeled out and made up good ground late on a day where it was hard to come wide and take ground off runners in front. 2000m third up is also ideal for him. Not sure he has the class and talent to beat Tarzino, but he should run well nonetheless.
Roughie: 7 River Wild (Best Odds: $9.00) was a ripping run also in the Australian Guineas, where he got held up a touch at the top of the straight before working clear and finishing off strongly to run fourth. He has been up for a while, but I like that he is back in Sydney and Avdulla is back aboard now. Don’t be shocked if he causes an upset.
Race Seven (16:30) : Longines 2016 Golden Slipper 1200m:
Back Me: The one horse that has not been talked about once in the last few months has been the David Vandyke trained 13 Yankee Rose (Best Odds: $26.00), and while winning the Slipper would seem an impossible task, I am a fan of hers and leaning her way. She had the two runs at the end of the Spring and won on both occasions, both over 1100m at Rosehill. Vandyke said after the second win she’d be tipped out and set to run first up in the Slipper. It has been a six month plan, not an afterthought, and her recent Randwick trial was very encouraging where she dashed up near the inside. She’ll eat up a fast 1200m and has the race day experience around Rosehill.
Big Danger: The main threat and the horse to beat to beat is clearly 1 Extreme Choice (Best Odds: $3.10). His Blue Diamond (1200m) win was unbelievable given he was three and four wide no cover on speed for the entire trip yet just trounced his rivals. Go back to 2012 and stablemate Samaready did exactly that and then couldn’t repeat the dose in the Slipper. Only special horses can do the Diamond/Slipper double, no matter the depth of the opposition. But in saying that, he might just be better than these.
Roughie: 12 Calliope (Best Odds: $21.00) is on the back up from winning the Magic Night (1200m) here last Saturday where she was given an absolute peach from McDonald and won with a bit of authority. Horses who win the final lead ups to the Slipper generally run well, and with this filly, there does appear to be enormous upside with her, and she is a powerful stable, so I’d respect her very much here in a tricky race.
Race Eight (17:10) : Banjo Galaxy 1100m:
Back Me: The return win of 14 English (Best Odds: $4.40) in the Challenge Stakes (1000m) a fortnight back was simply high class, showing an electric turn of foot to grab victory in the last couple of strides. The query is that she won’t be as dynamic second up, but she only carries 51kg and three year olds down in the weights have a very good record in recent years of this race.
Big Danger: 2 Terravista (Best Odds: $5.50) comes through the Lightning where he looked the winner, but was nabbed right on the peg by Chautauqua due to that horse producing his usual lethal finish and that perhaps the fctor of Oliver losing momentum on the horse cost him late. This looks a lovely race for him and given his record, he does look very well weighted here second up.
Roughie: I think there is value in the shape of 11 Lumosty (Best Odds: $19.00). She resumed down the straight at Flemington and was a bit disappointing in defeat behind the flying Malaguerra. In saying that, she was a mare and was carrying 58kg. Tumbles big time in weight here and she does tend to save her best for a track with give in it.
Race Nine (17:50) : TAB Birthday Card Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 5 Brook Road (Best Odds: $5.50) is a classy mare that resumed over this track/distance and beat all bar Coolring in what was an excellent performance given she was fresh and was carrying 59kg. Tumbles in weight here from that here, and she really did look the part in a recent Wyong barrier trial, so I think she is a great chance given her booming finish.
Big Danger: 10 Perignon (Best Odds: $6.50) was unwanted in betting when resuming in the Light Fingers Stakes (1200m) but that betting drift didn’t matter to her as she produced a lovely finish to get the job done impressively. She has dodged the three year old fillies since and now takes on the older mares, but has been kept fresh, which I think is going to really suit this filly.
Roughie: 9 Vezelay (Best Odds: $16.00) resumed in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) and was just wide/out the back throughout when finishing down the track behind Flamberge. The Newmarket winner The Quarterback comes through that race, so the form has well and truly held up, and this mare looked sharp in a Flemington jump out last Friday, so she can definitely bounce back.
Race Ten (18:25) : Newcastle Newmarket Hcp 1350m:
Back Me: 4 Amovatio (Best Odds: $13.00) resumed in the National Sprint at Canberra where it was impossible to make up ground from the back, so it’s best to forgive and forget he went around. Second up last time in he was six lengths off Turn Me Loose in a Crystal Mile…that’s good enough for me here.
Big Danger: 14 Nancy (Best Odds: $5.00) resumed at Randwick and closed off well against the tempo when running third to Meursault in a race where the form has been well and truly franked. Down on the minimum now, fitter and draws to get the gun run.
Roughie: 3 Ecuador (Best Odds: $5.00) will enjoy the drop in grade on Saturday and is well weighted against this field. He will make his own luck out in front and will be very hard to run down with the in form Blake Shinn aboard.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 1 Tarzino
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 5 Winx
VALUE: Race Seven Number 13 Yankee Rose
Quaddie (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 12, 13
Leg Three: 2, 6, 9, 10, 11, 14
Leg Four: 4, 5, 9, 10, 12
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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