Saturday racing continues at Rosehill this weekend for a strong nine event card with several gallopers tuning up for the feature events during the Summer Carnival. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out six metres for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:40) : Ascend Sales Trophies Handicap (72) 1200m:
Back Me: 3 Gibraltar Girl (Bet Now: $5.00) ran under the lights at Canterbury last Friday night and for her supporters, it looked like a potential nightmare as she was last on the rail, but the breaks went the way for Rory Hutchings as he darted up the inside and the filly dashed through for a super win. She has really come on this prep and this looks a nice step for her. Happy to be in her corner.
Big Danger: 7 Mega Mall (Bet Now: $4.60) looked to trial really well prior to resuming at Beaumont Newcastle where she was left stranded three wide no cover for the trip yet she just ambled to the front and put the race away in a couple of strides, winning with absolute ease. She looks a filly who can easily go through her grades, and that turn of foot she produced was something to be very impressed with.
Long Shot: 1 Flash Fibian (Bet Now: $8.50) is a potential knockout runner at odds. He has contested zStakes grade in all three runs this prep, the latest coming in the Brian Crowley behind Spright, who of course came out and bolted in on Oaks Day. Showed really good promise as a two year old and despite carrying a decent weight here, the small field will help.
Race Two (13:20) : Promaster Protection Handicap (78) 1400m:
Back Me: 9 Dagny (Bet Now: $2.20) is a mare who is low flying this time in for Chris Waller. She has won two from two, starting off with a maiden win at Kembla Grange, beating home a subsequent winner, before going to Canterbury and showing a lovely turn of foot to win. Not easy to jump from maiden to city successfully, so I’ll respect her for that, and this is a winnable race.
Big Danger: 7 Dixie Chick (Bet Now: $7.50) was just awful when racing here three weeks back but she didn’t have much room in the straight and she got a cut to her leg. I think she is also best when outside runners and having the last, as we saw first up and last prep. She is very talented when right, and if things go her way here, she can definitely bounce back.
Long Shot: 2 Blendwell (Bet Now: $61.00) resumed in the Ladies Day Cup (1300m) at Hawkesbury on Oaks Day where she sat off speed and couldn’t quite quicken due to the slow tempo when finishing midfield to Famous Seamus. Form last time in was very good and it’s been a long time since she has raced at this level against her own sex. Can win for sure if she brings her best.
Race Three (13:55) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 3) 1100m:
Back Me: This has the potential to be one of the better Highways we will see. I am really keen on 5 Somebody (Bet Now: $4.00). This mare is trained by Don Ryan and she trialled like Black Caviar at Narromine before being nominated for a Highway the week after that. Stable elected to save her and run her at Dubbo where she sat last in the run and produced a freakish finishing burst to win with a fair bit of ease. She has strong Highway form and city form, which is a big tick, and she seems to have really come back in outstanding order.
Big Danger: 10 Oakfield Time (Bet Now: $4.20) trialled pretty well prior to debuting at Port Macquarie where she ran a close up second after absorbing pressure on speed. She then went to Muswellbrook on Cup Day where she lead all the way and bolted up, running sharp time. Stable doesn’t bring them to town for a holiday. They only bring them if they think they can win in town, and though this is a hot race, I think she can measure up.
Long Shot: 11 Pomme Petite (Bet Now: $21.00) resumed on her home track om Kempsey Cup Day where she got a fair way back in the run before presenting wider and finishing off with an outstanding finishing burst to get the job done after getting market support at a price. Stable have had previous success in Highways and this mare has won second up, plus she’ll love the fast tempo up in front.
Race Four (14:30) : Jaydub Electrical Handicap (78) 2000m:
Back Me: 4 Eschiele (Bet Now: $7.00) ran over 1900m at Canterbury a fortnight ago where he was given a 12/10 from Heywood and really, the ride deserved the win but he was nabbed late by the ambushing High Opinion. Performed well up to 2400m in the Derby during the Winter, so the distance rise will be no issue, and he does seem to be racing dour this time in, so it should suit.
Big Danger: 5 Montauk (Bet Now: $5.00) did not to win last time out over 1900m at Canterbury at the midweeks. He wanted to turn it up big time but the way he travelled in the run, he was always going to win. I am hoping that would have done his confidence the world of good and with these type of Chris Waller runners, when they win, they generally hold their form.
Long Shot: 10 Be Like Dad (Bet Now: $15.00) ran over 1900m at Canterbury two weeks ago where he sat outside a hot tempo and though beaten at the top of the straight, he fought on pretty well when running third to High Opinion. His best racing has come at that track, but is now back on his home track for the first time, he is down in the weights again and 2000m, I don’t think, will be an issue.
Race Five (15:05) : ABA Automatic Entrance Specialists Handicap (93) 1100m:
Back Me: 1 Kuro (Bet Now: $7.00) on top for me in a tough race. I was surprised he got to the price he did when resuming at Canterbury where he attempted to lead all the way and to his credit, he did give a really good kick but it took a course specialist to nab him. Should improve big time off that, and the class/quality is there hence the weight. Happy to be with him, especially if he has something to chase.
Big Danger: 3 Supreme Effort (Bet Now: $5.50) was a dominant winner in the feature sprint race on Port Macquarie Cup Day before racing at Flemington down the straight on Cup Day and he stuck to the task quite gamely when third to Flippant. That form is lengths and shoulders better than anything else engaged here, and he’s hard fit. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 9 Press Report (Bet Now: $9.00) is such an interesting runner here. Former Lee Curits mare that went to the sales and was picked up by Kris Lees and Australian Bloodstock. She has always been a Stakes class mare that performed well at that level but just lacked the killer punch when it was required to get the job done. I’ve really liked her two trials leading in, she goes well fresh and she does have a very solid record at Rosehill.
Race Six (15:40) : November Topaz 1900m:
Back Me: 12 New Tipperary (Bet Now: $2.80) is a promising galloper for Joe Pride who is probably dipping his toe into the water to see how genuine of an Autumn stayer he could be. He ran over 1800m here three weeks ago and toughed it out very strongly on speed after doing a bit of work early in the run. He was dominant and strong to the line that day, so 1900m at this level should be fine for him and he remains down in the weights.
Big Danger: 5 Malice (Bet Now: $8.50) resumed in the Ladies Day Cup at Hawkesbury on Oaks Day and he was one of only a couple of gallopers to make up significant ground in the race to run third to Group l winner Famous Seamus, beaten just under two lengths. He has a really good record at Rosehill and is two from six when produced second up. With natural improvement from that fresh effort, he’ll run a beauty here for sure.
Long Shot: 2 Closing Bell (Bet Now: $6.50) is a classy former American who made his Australian debut over 1800m on Cup Day when getting back in the run and making up a good ground late in the piece behind form galloper Fabrizio. I think 1900m is still too short for him. Looking for further I think, but with a likely genuine tempo in front, he’ll get his chance and his class will come into play if the breaks go his way.
Race Seven (16:20) : TAB November Handicap 1400m:
Back Me: 5 Religify (Bet Now: $2.80) gets one more chance for me here. I, like most, thought he was a moral when racing over 1550m at Canterbury last time out, but after not leading, that really sealed his fate. He was the first horse under pressure but to his credit, he fought on to run second. Nothing wrong with the way he is racing; he’s racing well. He just isn’t winning, and after starting $2.60 and $1.60 at his past two starts, the patience is wearing thin. D-Day for him here.
Big Danger: 8 Lunar Rise (Bet Now: $7.50) is on the back up after racing here last Saturday over 1200m where he appreciated a fast tempo before Tim Clark presented him off the the back of the speed and he pounced to record a dominant win. 1200m is short of his best, so I can only see the 1400m here on the seven day turn around being a positive. He does have a very good seven day back up record also, winning one and running a close second the other start.
Long Shot: 11 Duca Valentinois (Bet Now: $8.00) resumed over 1350m here three weeks back where he got a long way back in the run and didn’t quite quicken immediately, but he was pretty good through the line and picked up nicely late. He is a hard horse to trust, but on his day, he is quite talented and if they go silly in front, he can certainly finish over the top.
Race Eight (17:00) : Schweppes Handicap (78) 1400m:
Big Danger: 12 Choice We Had (Bet Now: $4.20) has been given a little freshen up since racing over 1400m at Randwick where he had good market support late an for the most part looked home but was nabbed near the peg by Muraqaba. Start prior was here and he ran second to Morton’s Fork and we know what that horse has done in Melbourne. Rates highly.
Big Danger: 14 Kandinsky (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through a midweek event at Canterbury where he sat back in the run and closed off well but there was certainly no flashing light when third to Quantrill. He is on his home track now and draws well, plus there has been a strong market push early leading in. Needs to improve from last start, but the betting suggests he will.
Long Shot: 3 Commission (Bet Now: $34.00) was having his first run since May at Canterbury where he sat off speed and stuck on okay in defeat when finishing sixth of eight behind Reincarnate. Tuned up with a trial on Tuesday at Randwick where he looked to about his business nicely in running last. Got a really solid second up record and races well at Rosehill.
Race Nine (17:40) : Fugen Handicap (78) 1200m:
Back Me: 14 Heartlings (Bet Now: $10.00) is a big chance here at a price. She contested the Fillies races during the Autumn Carnival and while outclassed, she didn’t quite disgrace herself at all. Go back to first up of that prep where she won brilliantly and beat the likes of Elle Lou, Dixie Blossoms and Miss Denni. That class of horse and she spanked them. That reads so well for a race like this.
Big Danger: 10 Sonic Swish (Bet Now: $8.00) had his first run for Chris Waller on Cup Day at Randwick where he sat back near last in the run before Rory Hutchings presented him wider on the turn and he let down hard over the concluding stages to grab victory in the last stride. Loses nothing with McEvoy jumping on and the speed looks to be very good here, so he’ll get his chance to run on and ambush late.
Long Shot: 11 Dream Lane (Bet Now: $11.00) is a consistent mare that comes to town for Nick Mitchell. She was dominant in winning fresh at Canberra before going to the Ladies Day Cup on Oaks Day at Hawkesbury where she had market support and ran up to that with a fourth to Group l winner Famous Seamus. Go back to last prep and she ran some ripping races behind Danish Twist and Mackintosh, both Group l horses.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 12 New Tipperary
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 5 Somebody
VALUE: Race Nine Number 14 Heartlings
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 5, 11, 12
Leg Two: 5, 8, 9, 11
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 8, 11, 12, 14
Leg Four: 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14
$50 Investment= 6.37% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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