A cracking program has been assembled for Geelong on Wednesday, where the feature race is the Geelong Cup (2400m), a race which has produce a couple of Melbourne Cup winners in recent years. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race One (12:30) : B&B Aluminium Handicap (64) 1400m:
Back Me: 8 Ruthven (Bet Now: $2.80) looks a really safe way to kick off Geelong Cup Day. He was well supported when debuting at Bendigo and aided by a confident on speed steer from Luke Nolen, the colt bolted up and won impressively. The runner up failed with excuses on Saturday while the third horse has placed, so the form reads okay, but with this horse, there is just upside, and this is a thin race.
Big Danger: 3 Violet Snow (Bet Now: $8.00) attempted to lead all the way at Mornington last time out where she did and gave a really good kick but just tired late. Leading is definitely not her go. She is much better when ridden with cover and ambushing late. If that eventuates, she is a massive threat.
Roughie: 1 Magwitch (Bet Now: $18.00) has had a couple of runs on the Pakenham Synthetic in recent times, booting up two back before getting caught wide no cover behind Kerauno. He is talented on his day, and though rising in depth, I think he can figure in the finish somewhere.
Race Two (13:00) : IGA Liquor Handicap (78) 2400m:
Back Me: Quite keen on the Team Williams galloper 1 Morning Mix. (Bet Now: $3.10) He resumed over 2100m at Sandown in early September when sitting near the speed and fighting on very well when second to The Thug. Break between runs is a worry, but he has class and 2400m is no issue.
Big Danger: 3 Lips Areios (Bet Now: $2.25) is really finding his best form under Darren Weir. He ran over 2000m at Warrnambool and had a charmed run near the tempo before John Allen pushed the button and was dominant. He will eat up the 2400m here and has upside.
Roughie: 7 Super Haze (Bet Now: $6.50) closed off strongly first up at Gawler before going to Warrnambool where he took an absolute eternity to wind up but chased hard and got the win over Macs Mettle, who won on Sunday so the form reads alright and he did close off well in his lone 2400m run.
Race Three (13:35) : Geelong Australia Handicap (78) 1500m:
Back Me: The drop back in trip should suit 1 Pay Up Bro. (Bet Now: $3.20) I thought he was a good thing in the Inglis Cup (2000m) last time out at Caulfield but he just didn’t quite finish off as well as expected and was a bit disappointing to my eye. He is a miler, so this distance suits and should take some beating.
Big Danger: 11 Movie (Bet Now: $7.00) has been a very consistent galloper for the Hayes/Dabernig yard this time in. She was well backed to win last time out on the Pakenham Synthetic where she got back in the ruck and finished hard late to run a close second to the well performed Kerauno. Draws a lovely gate, so 1500m is no issue, plus Lane rides the mare well.
Roughie: 6 Gallic Cheiftain (Bet Now: $11.00) crates plenty of interest here. Former French galloper making his Australian debut for Darren Weir with some mixed form coming from overseas. But he has the Weir polish, so he is an obvious market watch.
Race Four (14:10) : No Fuss Event Fire Handicap (70) 1700m:
Back Me: 8 I’ll Fly Away (Bet Now: $3.60) looks one of the better bets on the program. This mare has been fantastic for Darren Weir in two runs down under, producing wings to win first up at Benalla before going to Bendigo where she again got back in the run yet powered home to win impressively. 1700m here third up…looks perfect.
Big Danger: 4 Making Mayhem (Bet Now: $7.50) was confidently ridden by Jamie Mott last time out at Cranbourne over 1400m and he was impressive, sprinting hard and charging through the line, so I think the 1700m is no issue, he’s hard fit and in super form.
Roughie: 10 Warrior Of Justice (Bet Now: $18.00) sat off a hot speed last time out at Echuca against the older horses before he came off the bit before the turn, but he picked up and was strong late, though beaten six lengths by Moulin. He will improve up in trip here, draws a soft gate and has upside I suspect.
Race Five (14:45) : Dual Choice Plate (84) 1200m:
Back Me: 7 Demonstrate (Bet Now: $1.90) showed a bit of class, arrogance and dominance in winning last time out on the Pakenham Synthetic, sitting near the speed before being clicked up and drawing right away to win with ease. Start prior he ran second to Hellbent, who beat Sheidel, who won a Stakes race next start so on that basis, I think he rates clearly on top, adding that he has upside left also.
Big Danger: 12 Lord Von Costa (Bet Now: $3.40) is a really talented galloper that is with Graham Hulm after formerly being with Stephen Brown. When trained by Brown, he was able to win down the straight at Flemington in the Creswick, beating Prince Of Brooklyn, who has form around Ulmann. Out of that race also came Sooboog, who beat home the Epsom runner up. That just reads so well for a race like this.
Roughie: A horse who could improve sharply here is 1 Magnus Reign, (Bet Now: $12.00) who contests the easiest race he has faced in ages. He has been racing pretty well this time in, with really good efforts behind the likes of Sooboog, Heza Ripper and Fast Cash. Draws a soft gate and the drying track will suit.
Race Six (15:20) : Emsley Lodge Geelong Classic 2200m:
Back Me: Going to take a chance on the Aaron Purcell trained 9 Zoffman (Bet Now: $16.00). He ran over 1300m on the Geelong Synthetic before stepping up to 2000m on his home track at Warrnambool where he really solid market support and he reacted to the distance rise with a dominant win. I can only see upside with him off that and should be much better off now he has had the 2000m run under the belt. He is a definite each way play for me.
Big Danger: 1 Theanswermyfriend (Bet Now: $3.90) had solid support from the punters late when racing over the mile at Caulfield last Wednesday and he was just far too good for his rivals, leading throughout and giving nothing else a look in. He’s always been touted as a Derby prospect and now he steps out to a trip.
Roughie: 5 Tumultuous (Bet Now: $8.00) drops a long way in class after contesting the Spring Champion (2000m) at Randwick last time out where he looked a really serious chance on the turn but he couldn’t quite finish the race off and had to settle for sixth to Yankee Rose. That’s clearly the best form in the race, but his staying prowess? Not sure, but he has class.
Race Seven (16:00) : Bet365 Geelong Cup 2400m:
Back Me: 5 Qewy (Bet Now: $5.00) appears to be the number one seed for Charlie Appleby when it comes to the Melbourne Cup, but is down in the order of entry so he needs to win here. He has won up to 3300m, albeit over the jumps, but the stable are talking him up highly as a Cup horse, and he does have a very good turn of foot. Rating him highly.
Big Danger: 9 Oceanographer (Bet Now: $3.60) is regarded as the number one seed for Charlie Appleby according to the market, and he does come here with some pretty solid form, with a handy finish in the Ebor along with a run behind Sir Isaac Newton. From all reports, he is working well at Werribee and has to be highly respected.
Roughie: One horse who will relish the trip is 10 All I Survey (Bet Now: $26.00), who ran last Wednesday over 2400m at Caulfield where he had the suck run on the fence and chased hard all the way behind Our Century, a well performed Team Williams galloper, so I think that form could well be respected, and now that he has found form, I think he can hold it.
Race Eight (16:40) : Rosemont Stud Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: 12 Painted Firetail (Bet Now: $4.80) was an impressive first up winner at Canterbury before going to Rosehill where she had market there support also but if you backed her, gee it was just a nightmare to watch. Never really clear until the final 75m where she then savaged the line. Drawn to be out of trouble here and McDonald is back on. Ticks alot of boxes.
Big Danger: 9 Rockolicious (Bet Now: $7.50) contested both the Blazer and Lets Elope against the top class mares and she ran well but I think she just isn’t quite up to that level, but she didn’t disgrace herself at all. This looks more her go and I think back to 1200m will be ideal, especially a fast 1200m. Better suited at 1400m I think, so the 1400m mares race on Cup Day looks her goal, but she can definitely threaten here.
Roughie: Really surprised to see 1 Vibrant Rouge (Bet Now: $11.00) at around the $14 mark. Her effort in the Blazer was very good, sitting back in the run before peeling wide and finishing off stoutly out wide to run third to French Emotion. He beat Rockolicious in that race yet is a better price. She’s a massive chance I think, especially from the soft draw.
Race Nine (17:20) : Roderick Insurance Brokers Handicap (70) 1200m:
Back Me: 15 Miles Of Krishan (Bet Now: $5.00) ran over 1400m at Sale last time out and she toughed it out very strongly to get the job done over a handy type in Pure Pride, who has since run a beauty in Stakes grade. Upside left for sure, and back to 1200m is no issue.
Big Danger: 1 Harbour Grey (Bet Now: $9.00) resumed over this track/distance a tick over three weeks back where he showed good speed to lead and gave a really good kick in the straight but was nabbed late by Turfane, who failed with excuses at Moe, while Battlecamp was beaten by a star, so I think the form looks alright and I think being on speed will be no disadvantage.
Roughie: 2 Black Vanquish, (Bet Now: $12.00) I thought, was a super winning chance at Caulfield last time out, but he wasn’t given the best or rides, getting dragged back from the inside and being restrained, which just isn’t the way to ride this horse. The apprentice is off and on comes Darren Gauci, so expect this horse to roll forward and being allowed to run.
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 5 Qewy
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 8 I’ll Fly Away
VALUE: Race Six Number 9 Zoffman
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9
Leg Two: 5, 7, 9, 10
Leg Three: 1, 7, 9, 12, 13, 15
Leg Four: 1, 2, 5, 9, 10, 15, 16
$50 Investment= 5.95% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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