A strong eight race program will be run and won at Ascot this Saturday for Roma Cup Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:14) Lanciano Plate 1200m
1 Black Sabbath (Bet Now: $1.20) should be winning this. The Harvey camp look to have a smart youngster on their hands. He debuted a fortnight back where when off the map and he absolutely bolted in, beating Market Ruler, who bolted up last Saturday to frank the form. Only bad luck beats him here you would think.
3 Prince Of Promises (Bet Now: $13.00) looks a nice gelding for the Simon Miller team. Has had three career outings and has finished runner up each time, the latest coming last Wednesday when leading and just tiring late behind Fingermark. Looks to map ideally here and that was his first run in three weeks so there should be room to improve.
8 Lady Husson (Bet Now: $81.00) is a daughter of Husson on debut for the Dan Morton camp. This girl has had four career trials to date, but two for this campaign. Like what I saw from her a few weeks back over 1000m at Belmont, she draws the inside gate and gets blinkers on first time, telling me there is intent to run well on debut.
Race 2. (14:54) Broome International Airport Handicap (66+) 2200m
8 Palace Rogue (Bet Now: $2.65) for me. Progressive three year old gelding who has won two of his five career outings, the latest coming just over a fortnight back at this track/distance when leading all the way in pretty dominant fashion. Did a bit wrong in front, wanted to race keenly, but once he put it together, he was quite impressive. Harder here, but looks the leader and should give a sight.
2 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $3.95) is a Justin Warwick trained gelding who is four weeks between runs since contesting the two mile WA Cup where Lucy gave him an absolute peach of a ride, but was just no match late for Dark Musket. He has certainly got the class to beat these. Just all depends where he is at fitness wise.
1 Middle Earth (Bet Now: $5.75) is on the seven day back up after racing over 2100m here last Saturday where he really had no hope of winning given the tempo of the race and the fact he was last in the run so I thought he ended up doing a good job to get as close as he did to Master Magician. Hopefully sits closer from the gate and gets the 3kg claim.
Race 3. (15:34) Purslowe & Chipper Funerals Handicap 1000m
1 Debellatio (Bet Now: $12.00) for me in a ripping race for the three year olds. He resumed over 1200m here a fortnight back where Tayla Stone had him up near the speed throughout before hitting the front and then running out of puff late when fifth to Masquerade. Back to 1000m suits him better and the key change of jockey with Harvey on is a good lead.
That’s to take nothing away from 2 Masquerade (Bet Now: $2.70). It was a fab first up win. He had the suck run in behind the speed before getting the split and showing a lovely turn of foot to win. I think there is more upside with Debellatio but the brilliance certainly lies with this Team Williams trained gelding.
3 My Demi (Bet Now: $8.50) looks the big improver. He ran at this track/distance three weeks back and I reckon if Smokin Joe had his time again, he would have ridden the gelding much more quiet instead of having him on speed. Not his go. Hopefully he can sit back off a fast speed and have last look at them.
Race 4. (16:14) United Overseas Australia Handicap (1MW) 1600m
8 New Age (Bet Now: $2.60) looks a very good mare in the making for the Adam Durrant team. Tick over three weeks between runs since resuming at Pinjarra where she was wide no cover throughout but she could have sat five wide and it wouldn’t have mattered. She was far too good for them. Think that’s the case again here.
1 Forty Four Red (Bet Now: $6.50) will provide stiff competition. Noske was gifted a pretty soft lead on this bloke a fortnight ago at this track/distance and he made them pay, running slow sectionals before clicking up on the turn and fending them off had for a narrow but impressive win. More depth but maps well once again.
12 Freo (Bet Now: $11.00) is the x factor. Not sure he beat much when resuming with a maiden win over 1400m here a tick over two weeks back but I thought there was dominance and a touch of class about the way he did it, rounding them up from the back with a bit in reserve. Senior jock on and has upside. Big watch.
Race 5. (16:54) Cavalier Handicap (72+) 1800m
2 Missile Launch (Bet Now: $2.85) looks the obvious. He was in a bit of trouble it seemed a fortnight back over the mile here but when Carbery got fair dinkum on him, he drew clear and held Broker comfortably. Draw makes it tough, but he has more upside to give and the 1800m should be no issue for him.
5 Broker (Bet Now: $3.75) is the form horse going into this, but I’m just not sure if he will see out a strong 1800m. Looked to have every chance to beat Missile Launch in the race mentioned above but that horse comfortably held him. In saying that, he draws to get a soft run off the pace and pounce on them late.
12 Wonorg (Bet Now: $27.00) represents a bit of value I would have thought. Not sure he beat much last Wednesday at this track/distance but the manner in which he won was very impressive, coming with a well timed run and producing a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done. More depth here but I think he’ll run well.
Race 6. (17:30) Trap For Fools Ascot Horse Of The Year Handicap (72+) 1400m
5 Galaxy Star (Bet Now: $1.57) should be winning this. Hard in the market when resuming over 1100m here a fortnight back but just took a touch too long to wind up when just missing out on picking up Mr Motown. She should love the rise to 1400m, has the run under the belt now and the tempo should be strong. Keen.
3 Gunnago (Bet Now: $6.50) is three weeks between runs since resuming over 1200m here where he got a mile back off a hot pace but I liked the way he finished his race off late in the piece when a close up fourth to Belter. The rise to 1400m should suit him ideally and if he can overcome the sticky gate, he’s a live chance.
Back to 1400m should really suit 10 Discoville (Bet Now: $34.00). He attempted to lead all the way over the mile here two weeks ago but didn’t see the trip out and found the class a bit much when fourth to Missile Launch. Should lead and I hope they run along instead of trying to stack and rack. That’s his best chance.
Race 7. (18:10) Roma Cup 1200m
This race evolves around 1 Rock Magic (Bet Now: $2.10) and where he is at fitness wise. If he’s right, he wins, and the fact the stable finds Pike might be a lead. He hasn’t raced since racing like a tired horse in the William Reid at the Valley behind Hellbent. This looks absolutely perfect for him and he should win if he’s right.
If he’s not right then 3 Battle Hero (Bet Now: $3.10) is the one to beat. His Northam Stakes win was excellent to the eye, leading throughout under Jarrad Noske and finding plenty late when challenged. This is clearly a much harder assignment, but he has fitness on his side and should take some holding out.
10 Cosmic Storm (Bet Now: $41.00) is a really good mare that resumes for Team Williams. This girl hasn’t raced since the Perth Cup where she should have finished closer in what was a hard luck story behind Material Man. Her best form is over further, but she is a track/distance winner and has looked great in a couple of trials.
Race 8. (18:50) La Cucina Handicap (1MW) 1200m
10 Forceful (Bet Now: $2.70) on top in the get out. Team Williams trains this gelding, who was wide no cover when resuming here just over a month back but once Pike clicked him up, gee he showed a lovely turn of foot and won with a fair bit of ease on the line. Hopefully gets cover from the draw here and proves too good.
15 Rubia Miss (Bet Now: $3.65) is a talented daughter of Hinchinbrook that resumes for the Simon Miller camp. This girl hasn’t raced since New Years Day at this track/distance when a close up fourth to Cognac after being well backed to win. Been given a good break and her trial at Lark Hill last Monday was very good.
9 You Watching Me (Bet Now: $41.00) looks the speed in the race. The veteran bounced back into the winners list last Wednesday over 1100m here where Randy Tan had him on speed before booting clear on the turn and fighting hard to cling on and get the win. Extra 100m will be the test but he’ll be out of trouble.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 1 Rock Magic
NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 5 Galaxy Star
VALUE: Race Three Number 1 Debellatio
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 5, 6, 12
Leg Two: 5
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 2, 8, 10, 15
$50 Investment= 312.50% of the dividend if successful
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