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Night racing continues at the Valley this Friday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out four metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (18:15) Entry Education Mdn Plate 1600m

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Back Me

11 Sheer Treasure (Bet Now: $5.50) on top. Was with this girl last start at Hawkesbury on Oaks Day but she really struggled on the bottomless track when fourth to a handy horse, For Valour, beaten close to ten lengths. Stable gets it rarely wrong with the state switch and she finds a thin race.

Danger

6 Summerhill (Bet Now: $4.80) is a key threat. Was 1600m back to 1400m when racing at Pakenham last time out, finishing off with real purpose late in the piece when second to Lal Lal Falls. Now back up in trip from a soft gate with Newitt sticking, he does appeal against this lot.

Long Shot

9 Fuentess (Bet Now: $11.00) is a handy mare who will put herself on speed and give her all. Attempted to lead throughout over 1700m at Geelong on Sunday and gave a solid kick from the front. Just couldn’t quite finish it off when third. Lacks the class/quality and will give some cheek.

Race 2. (18:45) Front Runner Membership (bm70) 1600m

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Back Me

Just has to hold her, never mind natural improvement, and 2 Perfect World (Bet Now: $2.40) wins again. There was a bit of arrogance about her first up win over 1400m at Ballarat, sitting back in the field before peeling wide, clicked up and put the race to bed in a couple of strides. Fitter, up to the mile, gate one…all points to her.

Danger

8 My Delight (Bet Now: $4.40) is a mare I do have time for. She comes back slightly in trip after racing over 1700m at Flemington on Oaks Day where she got a fair way back in the run and worked home okay, but was never really threatening. Drops a bit in depth, smaller field, she can bounce back.

Long Shot

Fitter and up in trip should suit 7 La Spezia (Bet Now: $11.00), a strong first up winner over 1400m at Warrnambool. Got back and was held up for a few strides, but loved the way she picked up late under pressure and surged hard to win. Proven at 2000m+ so the mile here no issue and is one for exotics.

Race 3. (19:15) Tab G'hound Melb Cup 26/11-c1 1200m

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Back Me

I’m with 12 Salamanders (Bet Now: $3.80), who resumes for James Cummings. Showed good promise as a juvenile, winning a maiden at Geelong in good time before being far from disgraced at Stakes level behind Heresey. Liked a recent Warwick Farm trial, maps super and Olly booked. Hard to beat.

Danger

3 McKeever (Bet Now: $3.90) commands respect. Symon Wilde trained gelding that resumed on Ararat Cup Day over 1100m and worked home strongly from off the speed when second to My Boy Nick in fast overall time. Fitter and up to 1200m with a jockey upgrade, he’ll look the winner at some stage.

Long Shot

11 Gorgeous Prophet (Bet Now: $12.00) lacks the class of some of these but is a winner on wet ground and only has 52.5kg. Just a maiden win I thought at Kilmore last time but the overall time was solid and she was down to run in a much easier race, instead racing here, which could be a lead.

Race 4. (19:45) Heartkids Hero (bm70) 2500m

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Back Me

To me, these weak-ish 2400m+ races, it’s worth having a throw at the stumps at one and the horse that fits that criteria is 6 Wellsford (Bet Now: $21.00). Loved the way he knuckled down to win over 2400m at Swan Hill last time, coming with a well timed run and finishing best under Billy Egan. He’s got upside to come. The stack of gear changes interests me, but at the odds, have to speck each way.

Danger

1 Chains Of Honour (Bet Now: $3.60) looks the one to beat on form. His last run came on Geelong Cup Day over 2400m when a game third to Nobel Heights, who franked the form with a win last Saturday at Morphettville so the form has been ticked off and with the claim for this camp, he commands respect.

Long Shot

9 Inthelapofthegods (Bet Now: $12.00) is a one batter for Nathan Dunn that will put himself on speed and run an honest race. Dominant win over 2100m at Echuca two back. Then went to 2300m at Warrnambool when near the speed and battled on well when a well held second to Fabalot, with a gap to third. One for exotics.

Race 5. (20:15) Ladbrokes 55s Challenge (bm64) 955m

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Back Me

12 Estoril Park (Bet Now: $5.00) looks the pony to beat here. Resumed over 1000m at Cranbourne where she paraded like she would need the run and that is how it panned out late, just running out of puff late when fourth to Real Feeling. Go back last prep, she boasts a third to I’m Thunderstruck. Brings any hint of that here, she is the likely winner.

Danger

3 Lunar Hero (Bet Now: $5.50) has sustained speed from the front, which should hold him in good stead for races like this. Hasn’t raced since Cox Plate Day over 1000m here when leading at a brutal speed and just felt the pinch late behind Dexelation, who franked the form in the Apache Cat. Back to this level, he appeals big time and is the saver bet.

Long Shot

6 Libertus (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Shea Eden trained gelding that resumes. Hasn’t raced since August 15 when on speed at Cranbourne and fighting on strongly when second to Kamien. He’s a horse who races well on the fresh side, and he has jumped out well leading in, so keen to see how he goes.

Race 6. (20:45) Ladbroke It (bm70) 1000m

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Back Me

Given who trains, I’ll back in 11 Rodeo (Bet Now: $8.00). There was market support for her when she resumed on the Parks track two weeks ago and under a lovely steer from Toeroek, the filly finished best to win and was impressive. This stable rarely get it wrong when they come to Melbourne and from gate one, she’ll do me.

Danger

9 Unflinching (Bet Now: $3.20) looks a smart colt for Team Freedman. Market support was strong for him on debut at Mornington and it was proven spot on. He was a dominant winner from near the speed and ran sharp time in doing so. Off that, confident he measures up here.

Long Shot

1 Cheerful Legend (Bet Now: $8.00) commands respect here. John Sadler trained three year old that was a strong winner fresh at Mornington when heavily backed. He then went to the Blue Sapphire and was outclassed, but far from disgraced in defeat behind Extreme Warrior. Better suited here and can take this out.

Race 7. (21:15) Tote Bar & Dining (bm64) 1600m

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Back Me

12 Big Angel (Bet Now: $4.80) just has to hold up from the inside gate and I think she only runs well. Ran over 1700m on Oaks Day at Flemington where she was back and wide in the run. Failed to come on and was disappointing. Better suited here I feel and provided the inside gate is used to advantage, she’ll take beating.

Danger

10 Mostly Sunny (Bet Now: $4.40) doesn’t have the best of winning strike rates, but gee she’s an honest mare who is rarely far away from the action. On speed throughout at Pakenham last time and stuck to the task gamely on a shifty track when third to Brasada. Gets in very well after the claim, sits on speed and is tough to run down.

Long Shot

9 Storm’s Colours (Bet Now: $23.00) was down to run on the weekend in an easier race, so the fact she runs here tells me there might be a bit of stable confidence. Ran in the St Arnaud Cup last time out and didn’t disgrace himself at all behind Swelter Magic. Back to the mile no issue. Just needs luck from the gate.

Race 8. (21:45) Xmas Parties @ The Valley-bm64 1200m

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Back Me

10 Dance To Dubai (Bet Now: $4.00) for me in the get out. This mare was smashed in betting first up at Traralgon and despite copping pressure on speed, she railed up, took control in the straight and was far too good. Gets in well after the claim, has all the options from gate one, she’s the one to beat.

Danger

4 Real Gun (Bet Now: $4.40) has a tricky draw to overcome but hard to knock the way he’s racing at the moment. Just had to do a bit too much work to hunt up and hold a forward spot and that early burn just took away his finale when third to Duchess Of Dorset. If he gets luck from the draw, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

7 Helavabel (Bet Now: $14.00) is a talented animal for Greg Eurell that resumes. This guy is first up, having not raced since August 8 when down the track on testing ground at Bendigo. He is a good fresh horse who has run well at the Valley previously, so not totally penning him here.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Two Number 2 Perfect World

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 12 Big Angel

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 6 Wellsford

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 3, 6, 12, 14

Leg Two: 1, 5, 9, 10, 11

Leg Three: 10, 12

Leg Four: 1, 4, 7, 10

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.

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