One of the time honoured races on the Australian racing calendar is Caulfield Cup Day and the 2019 edition rolls around this Satruday, the 2400m feature the drawcard ona ten race program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Cup Field 🏆: View the Caulfield Cup Field
Race 1. (12:15) Keno Classic (bm80) 1700m
4 Jenkins (Bet Now: $5.50 TOP ODDS) on top for me. The Price/Kent stable trains this four year old, who resumed over 1500m at Mornington where he was back near last in the run before presenting wider and finishing off well to run second to Strategic Phil, who franked the form with a win on Cranbourne Cup Day, so the form reads well, and up to the mile on the home track, he appeals.
Danny O’Brien has 9 Extreme Pride (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) flying at the moment. She has won three on the bounce, winning two back at Seymour before going to Sale where Willow had her on speed throughout and from the home turn onwards, if you were on, it was a painless watch. Hardest test to date here, but she’s a mare in form and no reason why she can’t continue her picket fence.
2 Mickey Blue Eyes (Bet Now: $18.00 TOP ODDS) hasn’t really gone on with it since his three year old days. That’s the issue leading into here, but overall, I don’t think this is the strongest race going around. Close up behind Wetakemanhattan two back at Flemington before going to Bendigo beaten 0.7L by Zouy’s Comet into fourth position. He’s getting near hard fit now, and his best is clearly good enough.
Race 2. (12:50) Qms Media Plate 1400m
I’m a fan of 1 Ready Set Sail (Bet Now: $6.50 TOP ODDS) and not dropping off her after one run. She had been trialling up enormous prior to resuming in the Scarborough on Moir night at the Valley where she was back and wide, never really in the hunt behind Loving Gaby. This race is nowhere near as strong and she is on her home track, up in trip, so she’s a definite improver.
3 Pretty Brazen (Bet Now: $3.10 TOP ODDS) looks hard to beat here. She was a bit disappointing when racing in Sydney early on in the prep so the McEvoy team sent her back to Melbourne and she got her confidence up in a big way last week with a spank job of her rivals at Bendigo, winning by a space and running really good time relative to the meeting. Repeats that effort, she can go close.
6 Tubby Two Tracks (Bet Now: $8.00 TOP ODDS) is a talented filly for the Chris Bieg stable who ran last of four fresh behind Roccabascerana before going to the Jacobite Prince race from two weeks ago on the Parks track at Morphettville where she ran a much improved race to run second to the Stokes three year old. She’s third up, so she should just about be at peak fitness and prove very hard to beat with hard fitness.
Race 3. (13:25) Gothic Stakes 1400m
6 Astraeus (Bet Now: $11.00 TOP ODDS) looks to have a decent engine under the hood but is still learning his craft. Brilliant win from off the speed to win his maiden on Benalla Cup Day before going to Bendigo last Wednesday where he threw the race away. Admittedly, Royalty was unlucky in behind, but this guy had clear air and was there to win, but he didn’t want to cooperate with Brett Prebble and threw it away. Better manners and he can win.
3 Hilo (Bet Now: $3.50 TOP ODDS) looks a leading chance. Won his first two starts this time in impressively before being tested at a stronger level in the Guineas Prelude where he was far from disgraced behind Alligator Blood, with that form being ticked off in the Guineas. No real class animal of that here and provided he still has petrol in the tank, he’s a leading contender for sure.
8 Alabama Express (Bet Now: $9.00 TOP ODDS) is the interesting runner. Was in inferior ground fresh at Mornington and could make a case that if he was in the better ground, he may have won. Then went to the Valley on Moir night where he was near the speed and was sound but just couldn’t finish it off. Think up to 1400m will suit him and third up, should be at peak fitness.
Race 4. (14:00) Ladbrokes Classic 2000m
He looks a really good staying prospect does 3 Warning (Bet Now: $4.20 TOP ODDS). Was all over him in a Sale maiden but the track pattern was against him. He was accepted to run at Kyneton in a maiden but instead went to the Super Impose at Flemington and he absolutely bolted in, charging to the line and through it like a real Derby prospect. Has to be rated as one of the leading chances here.
4 Creator (Bet Now: $19.00 TOP ODDS) is suited over a trip I feel so he’s a threat here. He was very good fresh in the Exford at Flemington before remaining at 1400m in the Guineas Prelude where he was no hope behind Alligator Blood. He showed in the Winter Carnival in Brisbane that a longer trip is what he wants, so up to 2000m I like and overall, this race is lacking any serious depth.
6 Miroku (Bet Now: $17.00 TOP ODDS) is a Phillip Stokes trained three year old who ran over 1500m at Mornington last Thursday where he was off speed and a bit keen in the run before presenting wider and showing good change up speed to get the win. He’s racing as if further will suit and gets gate one to use. Just hope he doesn’t pull hard in the run if the tempo becomes a crawl.
Race 5. (14:35) Alinghi Stakes 1100m
2 Humma Humma (Bet Now: $5.50) is an absolute beauty for John McArdle. Had been trialling up well prior to resuming over 955m at the Valley on Moir night where she sat off a fast speed and unleashed a brilliant finishing burst out wide to get the win. Has a fab record at Caulfield and for mine, she does seem much better suited at 1000m/1100m compared to 1200m.
1 Demerara (Bet Now: $5.50) is a dynamite fresh horse and with five weeks between runs, she has fresh legs. She resumed in the Bobbie Lewis down the Flemington straight where she had her chance but was far from disgraced behind Zoutori, who of course ran super in the Gilgai, so that form reads well and back to Mares grade, she appeals as a serous winning chance.
8 Victory Kingdom (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Hayes/Dabernig trained mare that can be a bit hit and miss but her best is good enough to run well here. She ran over this track/distance on Underwood Day and found the line nicely from off the pace to run third to Prophet’s Thumb. I think sprinting is her go in life because she can get keen in the run when stepping up in trip, so she’s a leading chance.
Race 6. (15:10) Ethereal Stakes 2000m
In the corner of 13 Contrition (Bet Now: $12.00). The Price/Kent stable trains this filly, who comes here off the back of a maiden win at Kyneton, which is hardly glowing form, but it was the manner in which she won. She had the race won 600m out when bolting behind the speed and when clear, she put them away and won by a space. I think she can measure up here.
4 Snapdancer (Bet Now: $7.50) looks a talented filly. She pushed hard all the way two back in the Exford at Flemington before going to the Guineas Prelude where she was near the speed and fought on well when fourth to Acting. Didn’t go to the Thousand Guineas and instead runs here, which looks her level, and with the little break between runs, she’ll take some beating.
10 Atame (Bet Now: $41.00) is a Danny O’Brien trained filly that was really well supported when racing in a 1600m maiden at Ballarat a couple of Wednesdays back and the bets were landed as she led all the way under a lovely front running steer from Olly, who lifted her late when she was starting to get wobbly feet. Form around her does read well and I don’t see 2000m being an issue for her.
Race 7. (15:45) Caulfield Sprint 1000m
He’s poorly weighted is 9 God Of Thunder (Bet Now: $4.00), but the set up is perfect for him here. He’s flying for Team Hawkes. Did too much work two back at Rosehill before stepping back to 955m at the Valley on Moir night when beating all bar the good mare Humma Humma. He draws to park behind what looks like will be a strong tempo and be good late with hard fitness under the belt.
5 Intuition (Bet Now: $13.00) is a son of Street Cry resuming for James Cummings. He had a pretty consistent Autumn/Winter prep, chipping away and being around the mark in pretty much whatever race he contested. Hasn’t raced since the Brisbane Winter Carnival and has trialled up well on a couple of occasions in readiness for his return to the races. Keen to see how he goes.
3 Tactical Advantage (Bet Now: $8.50) is the class runner of the field and is a proven weight carrier. I thought he’d run a decent race in the Moir first up and on face value, you’d have to mark him down as disappointing, but bear in mind Nature Strip got a cheap furlong in front and those behind really had no chance. Back to this level, class will carry him a long way.
Race 8. (16:30) Moonga Stakes 1400m
1 Land Of Plenty (Bet Now: $5.50) looks in for a good prep. Not sure he wins here, but he’s one for multiples I’d suggest because he has trialled well leading in, the latest seeing him close off strongly to run second at Warwick Farm in a 1200m trial. He is a Group l talent, but been a little while since he has produced that, so keen to see what he does here against some nice gallopers given he is better suited over a bit further.
2 Royal Meeting (Bet Now: $3.10) is such a fascinating runner. High class four year old for Saeed Bin Suroor who is 2/2 in his career to date, but bear in mind his two runs came as a 2YO, the second and last run being October 28 last year when winning a Group l and beating a couple of high class animals. If he was anywhere near that sort of form, he’d be winning. But he’s an obvious market/yard watch.
3 Moss ‘N’ Dale (Bet Now: $26.00) is an interesting runner. The Gelagotis team trains this veteran, who hasn’t raced since the Premiers Cup during the Brisbane Winter Carnival where he was well beaten and perhaps at the end of a prep and was looking for the paddock behind The Candy Man. He is a pure wet tracker, so conditions probably don’t suit, but his recent trial win at Cranbourne was pretty sharp.
Race 9. (17:15) Caulfield Cup 2400m
The Hayes/Dabernig team forked out some big coin to get 11 Constantinople (Bet Now: $7.00). This is the start or attempting to get a return. He is a big dope it seems but considering Cape Of Good Hope is the second stringer behind this horse, does that mean Constantinople is going to smash these? His form reads pretty well. Just needs to put it all together on race day.
If he can run out a strong 2400m, 3 Mer De Glace (Bet Now: $8.00) does look the one to beat. The Japanese have a good record in this race and this bloke is flying, winning 5/5 in 2019 and the big key to him is spacing his runs. He’s lethal with fresh legs. Thought it was a 12/10 ride from Kawada that got him home last time out in the Kokura Kinen, but the horses around him are very good, so respecting that form to an extent and recent history.
2 Mirage Dancer (Bet Now: $17.00) is the x factor I feel. He’s now with the Busuttin/Young team and from all reports has settled into Australian life nicely. Not harshly treated at the weights and will go into the Caulfield Cup as a live chance for sure. His last run at Goodwood, he was well held by Desert Encounter, but that horse on Sunday won a Group l in Canada so the form is sharp and from the gate, Melham has a few options.
Race 10. (17:50) Tristarc Stakes 1400m
1 Invincibella (Bet Now: $9.00) ran a game second in this race last year and I think she can go one better in 2019. You can’t really get much of a guide on her resumption in the Golden Pendant because it was pretty much a barrier trial, but she did parade like she would need the run and that’s how it panned out. That form was ticked off last Saturday, she’s fitter, back on a track she likes and I think she’ll only run well.
11 Angelic Ruler (Bet Now: $6.00) has come back in super order for the Pearce team. She was really good late fresh here behind Manicure before going to the Blazer where the tempo was clearly against her but loved the way she found the line late behind Haut Brion Her. Third up, so she should just about be at peak fitness, and if she can sit closer in the run, she’ll be very dangerous.
The Ellerton/Zahra stable looks to have 2 Aristia (Bet Now: $16.00) back on track. This mare has been excellent in two runs back from a spell. Good late fresh here behind Manicure before going to the Blazer where she was no hope given the tempo of the race but loved the way she found the line late. Though may want 2000m, but does have class and that will carry her a fair way.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 9 God Of Thunder
NEXT BEST: Race Four Number 3 Warning
LONG SHOT: Race Ten Number 1 Invincibella
Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):
Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 11, 12
Leg Four: 1, 2, 7, 11, 14
$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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