The Ascot Carnival continues this Saturday where it is Northerly Stakes Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (15:37) OKTOBERFEST (RS1MW) 1200m
I’ll be in the corner of the Team Williams trained 4 Born To Try (Bet Now: $3.70). This filly won 2/3 to start her career, her last start seeing her win at Belmont over 1400m in impressive fashion from off the speed. Been given a little freshen up given the last run was September 4, and back to 1200m, so a little query with fitness levels, but she looks above average and form around her reads well.
6 Boomtastic (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Simon Miller trained filly who had a couple of months off prior to racing in a maiden at Northam where she landed outside the speed under Pike and looked to be going quite comfortably before being clicked up and put them away to win narrowly but impressively in solid time. Harder here, but her two runs prior, the form has been well and truly ticked off.
7 Warfish (Bet Now: $17.00) is a maiden still for Sean Casey, but the talent and ability she has showed to date suggests she’ll be winning sooner rather than later. She was a heavily backed fav in a Northam maiden last time out and was terrible, but interesting to note that the jock said post race that she wants further, which is what she gets here, and she does draw gate one.
Race 2. (16:18) WESTSPEED PLATINUM (RS0MW) 1200m
1 Shuwish (Bet Now: $3.80) on top for me. Jason Miller trains this mare, who hasn’t raced since the Autumn Carnival when a close up third to Cup Night in the Raconteur. Has trialled well leading up to her return to the races, she draws a soft gate and I think the big tick for her is that Pike takes the ride, and he has ridden her in both trials, so I think that’s a good lead.
2 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: $4.00) is a very consistent animal for Martin Allan but he’s only won one race from 12 outings. He ran over 1400m at Belmont last time out where he looked to have the run of the race and for mine, had his chance when beaten narrowly by Zero Demerits. He’s got the talent to win this, but his winning endeavour has been somewhat of a downfall.
7 Cold As Cold (Bet Now: $31.00) is a son of Frost Giant for Steve Wolfe that resumes. He hasn’t raced since April 17 when racing down the Pinjarra straight when back with cover before finishing off hard when third to Fire Maker. He can sprint well fresh and his trial last week at Lark Hill was more than encouraging to the eye. Interesting to see what the market does with him.
Race 3. (16:55) TABTOUCH-BETTER YOUR BET-RS1MW 1000m
In the corner of 8 Pretty Style (Bet Now: $3.50), who resumes for Lou Luciani. She had three runs in the Autumn to start her career, winning her first two in impressive fashion before running a narrow second to High Range, beaten narrowly after doing work on speed. Loved the way she has trialled leading in and she should get a lovely run in transit from the gate.
Good little test for
3 Prince Devoutly (Bet Now: $SP.00). He has won his past three but no place to hide now as he comes to town after three wins at the provincials, two coming at Pinjarra before getting the job done last time out at Bunbury. Good time to bring him to town given the vein of form he is in. Will need a bit of luck in the run from the tricky gate, but has the ability.
1 Spirit And Fire (Bet Now: $10.00) has to lump the big weight, but he does have a bit of class and will run well I reckon. He ran over 1000m at Belmont four weeks ago when back off the speed and chasing hard, but couldn’t quite get there when third to Some Sort in a bunched finish. At the time, Some Sort was the form horse in WA, so keen to see how he goes here.
Race 4. (17:42) GLENROY CHAFF (RS1MW) 1600m
I’ll take a punt on 7 Honorific (Bet Now: $26.00), formerly with Zach Taylor but is now with Adam Durrant. His recent racing has been at Carnarvon on the dirt, where he has been good without really jumping up and down about. Fascinating that he’s now with Durrant and we know he has a fab record with tried horses, plus has gate one, so keen to see how he goes.
2 Harry Thomas (Bet Now: $5.00) is another that hasn’t won for a long time, but is racing well and chipping away with several placings…just can’t quite crack it for a win. He ran at Belmont four weeks ago when near the speed and giving a good kick but had to settle for a narrow second to Jedaffair, who won again to tick the form off. He’ll run his usual honest race.
12 Vintage Stock (Bet Now: $11.00) is an Alan Matthews trained mare that is ready to tackle city grade again after racing at Northam last Monday where she had no luck at all and should have finished much closer when sixth to Sliced Bread. Run prior at Northam was quite good, she should get an economical run from the gate and be strong at the end. Knockout chance.
Race 5. (18:18) AMELIA PARK (BM72+) 1800m
1 Cockney Crew (Bet Now: $2.00) looks the winner. Four year old who was a stunning winner first up at the Belmont mile before racing at the same track/distance where I think he ran his race in the gates. He was fractious and worked up and I think that took away precious petrol tickets late in the race. Draws wide, so he won’t be long in the gates touch wood, and can bounce back into the winners list.
Up to 1800m looks a big tick for 2 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $20.00). He ran over the mile last Saturday where he was back near last in the run before peeling into clear air and finding the line strongly to run third to an in form Jedaffair. I reckon he’s on the Perth Cup trail and ticking over beautifully towards that race. 1800m short of his best, but is stepping up in trip now.
7 Dark Prospect (Bet Now: $35.00) is a fascinating runner. I was really keen on him running well in the Kalgoorlie Cup but he did too much work on speed without cover and was a beaten horse 600m out when down the track behind Spiritual Warrior. Like him back to 1800m and back in depth. The concern is what is left in the petrol tank after that gutbuster last time out.
Race 6. (19:00) SEACORP (BM66+) 1400m
I reckon class will get 4 Platoon (Bet Now: $6.50) home. Quality four year old for Neville Parnham who resumes. He hasn’t raced since the WA Derby when he just didn’t run the trip out and he was a tired horse at the end of a long prep. He did win the JC Roberts in such impressive fashion and I reckon 1600m will be his trip at a higher level. Trialled well leading in. Hoping class gets him home.
2 Regal Counsel (Bet Now: $5.00) has been up a long time for Peter Fernie but he’s continually racing well. He ran over 1400m at Kalgoorlie on Cup Day two weeks ago when he looked home when finding clear air, but found Palma Merenti too good on the day. 0/4 at Ascot, but he’s a much better horse now under Fernie and if he holds his form, he’ll take some beating.
12 One Short (Bet Now: $11.00) is a Snippetson gelding for Steve Wolfe that resumes. This gelding is first up, having not raced since July 13 at Belmont when down the track behind Stageman but at times was unlucky and definitely should have finished closer. Interesting he resumes without a trial, but first up at 1400m in town tells me he’s ready to run well fresh.
Race 7. (19:35) R S CRAWFORD STAKES 1000m
If she runs up to the trial, 8 Flirtini (Bet Now: $2.70) wins. Quality mare for Simon Miller that resumes, having not raced since the Belmont Guineas when pulling up with a poor post race recovery. She’s an absolute bomb when produced fresh and was a standout at the Lark Hill trials last week. Just needs to produce the change up speed she produced in the trial and she’ll win.
3 Stageman (Bet Now: $2.90) is suited back to 1000m. He ran over 1200m in the Birthday Stakes two weeks ago where I thought he ran a beauty in defeat behind Man Booker, and did show a good turn of foot, but the six furlongs at this level sees him out, so a fast run 1000m looks right up his alley, he’s hard fit, in form and on stats, he saves his best for Ascot. Likeable.
7 Electric Light (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Vital Equine mare for Adam Durrant that resumes. This girl is first up, having not raced since the Bolton Sprint during the Winter Carnival when fourth to Valour Road, where she had her chance after sitting just off the speed. Can sprint well fresh and has trialled well leading in. Would prefer her on wet ground, but she’s capable on a dry deck.
Race 8. (20:10) NORTHERLY STAKES 1400m
Pretty strong edition of the Northerly. Going the way of 7 The Velvet King (Bet Now: $5.00), who resumed last Saturday over this track/distance where the lack of race fitness beat him in the end when a narrow second to Cup Night. He’s yet to do a seven day back up in the past, but he’s a hard, tough horse who loves racing dirty, sitting on speed and doing work. Hard to beat.
Second up syndrome is the only knock with
2 Man Booker (Bet Now: $3.60). He resumed in the Birthday Stakes two weeks ago where he was last in the run before peeling wide and finishing off strongly to get up in the last couple of strides and produce a massive first up win. If he’s come on from that, he’ll win again. My query is second up syndrome with eyes towards the Railway.
Fitter and up to 1400m are two big ticks for 1 Great Shot (Bet Now: $10.00). He resumed in the Birthday Stakes from two weeks ago when leading and seemingly got an easy time of it. Gave a good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Man Booker. He looks the leader once again and now he has the run under the belt, he should be stronger at the end of the race.
Race 9. (20:45) SEPPELT WINES (BM72+) 1200m
10 Tinsnip (Bet Now: $3.90) is a high quality three year old that resumes. This bloke…I am still sick about the Karrakatta. Got a slice of $81 for him and he looked home when he hit the front, but had to settle for second to Dig Deep. Confirmed his quality with a dominant Sires Produce win. Has been given a good break and trialled well at Belmont in readiness for his return.
11 Carocapo (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Jim Taylor trained gelding resuming. He hasn’t raced since April 6 over 1400m here when midfield behind Skinnen Times, and had his chance, but he was a tired horse by the looks. Been given a good break and has had three trials in readiness for his return, plus draws well. Has early speed to take advantage of that and prove hard to beat.
9 Mia Dolce (Bet Now: $35.00) is an absolute beauty for Jayce Buckley and will look the winner for the most part. Pings the lids, jumps and runs. Did that fresh at Belmont but copped too much heat in front and tired late behind Miss West Coast. Hopefully won’t cop as much pressure this time around and she does have a tidy enough record at Ascot. She’ll give a bold sight I’m sure.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Seven Number 8 Flirtini
NEXT BEST: Race Five Number 1 Cockney Crew
LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Honorific
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 12
Leg Two: 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 7, 12
Leg Four: 3, 9, 10, 11, 12
$50 Investment = 62.50% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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