19/1/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Morphettville

Eight races will be run and won at Morphettville this Saturday, with the meeting being a twilight program. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out twelve metres from the 1200m-Winning Post; Out nine metres for the remainder.

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3 Outpost (Bet Now: $3.00) is the only one outside the fav who has shown anything at the trials. That trial was back in October last year where he won it by four lengths, leading all the way and showing good sustained speed. Hasn’t been sighted since, the tongue control bit goes on…I think the market will tell you, but he seems to have the right racing pattern based on the trial win.

6 Sizzlefly (Bet Now: $1.75) is a daughter of Sizzling on debut for Phillip Stokes. This girl comes her off the back of a trial win over 800m at this track where she settled back off the pace before being presented wider under Todd Pannell and under light riding, she picked up nicely and won the trial narrowly but impressively. Stable is going well with their youngsters, so giving her respect.

4 Sowpods (Bet Now: $12.00) looks an outside chance to snare a trifecta spot. He trialled behind Outpost last year and ran a well beaten third, but wasn’t asked for much. Tipped out and then trialled behind Sizzlefly where he beat one home but wasn’t under that much pressure in the straight. He’s probably the value in the race, but would need to improve a touch to be winning.

1 Sir Garfield (Bet Now: $5.00) on top but there are a few ways you could go here. Gordon Richards trains this gelding, who ran over this track/distance last time where he did a bit of work to find the front and was there to be run down in the straight but found plenty late, proved too good and ran decent splits late in winning. Think he’ll be even better with a bunny to chase.

3 Surreal Image (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Team Jolly trained gelding who had been bursting to win a maiden for some time but it finally came on the board last start at Strathalbyn where he led all the way and bolted in. Did he beat much? Probably not, but has run well in town before, should be up near the front and running his usual honest race. Just lacks the class of a couple of these.

4 Yankee Eyes (Bet Now: $3.20) is the real unknown. Tough effort two back at this track/distance when beaten narrowly by Shark In The Water before having a month off and racing over 1200m at Gawler against the older horses. Strange set up, but surprisingly she was well backed and found little in the straight behind Tiara Star. Back up in trip and back to her own age are the ticks. Just depends what is left in the tank.

4 Kabini (Bet Now: $2.80) is a Barry Brook trained mare who was well supported when racing at Gawler (Metro) a fortnight ago, her first run in three weeks. She had the 1/1 sit and looked in a very dangerous spot on the turn but she couldn’t quite finish it off. She should improve off that and her best is certainly good enough to beat these. Key threat.

I thought I’d be six feet underground before I saw 2 Alaskan Jade (Bet Now: $3.60) string together wins. But that is indeed what she did to start the prep, winning two races on the bounce in impressive fashion before a fast finishing third to Over And Above at Gawler. The small field should ensure she isn’t far off and she reproduces the finale she’s unleashed this time in, she’ll look the winner.

3 Non Paear (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Chris Diplock trained mare who scored a fab win first up at the Valley, aided by a peach from Chris Caserta. The mare then raced at the Valley again and tired late behind Miss Norway. Been kept on ice since and her Stony Creek trial win was pretty good to the eye. If she can land on speed without doing too much work, she’ll be dangerous.

8 Vietti (Bet Now: $1.75) should put these away I think. Bob of the head beat her first up here before going to an 1100m maiden at Gawler (Metro) where she looked an absolute moral and won accordingly, leading all the way under Jamie Kah to bolt in. 1200m is no issue, she’s third up now so fitness levels should be nearly at peak and this isn’t the strongest 64 going around.

1 Jackpot Johnny (Bet Now: $10.00) is on the seven day back up for the Francis/Kent stable after racing at Gawler (Metro) last Saturday where he got back in the run and I think on the day those on speed were advantaged so he didn’t do too bad of a job to get as close as he did. He can sit much closer in the run from the inside gate and for mine is a definite threat.

6 Two Odd Sox (Bet Now: $6.50) is absolutely bursting to win a race but he continually keeps finding one or two better. He’s finished second at his past four, the latest coming a fortnight ago over 1200m at Gawler (Metro) when surging but just missing out on picking up Gougers. He’ll win one of these races sooner rather than later…just don’t think it’ll be with me on but concede he’s a threat.

5 Barood (Bet Now: $4.40) is just so reliable so I’ll go his way. He was freshened up prior to racing here on Boxing Day where he settled off a fast speed and tried hard but had no answers late for the well backed Stragun, who ran poorly last Saturday, so the form looks suspect, but this bloke always tries hard, should land on speed and give a stack of cheek, looking the winner at some stage I’m sure.

I think the key to 2 Zalmona (Bet Now: $1.95) is keeping him on the fresh side, and that is indeed what he is here. Hasn’t raced for four weeks since contesting the Christmas Handicap where he ran a game third to Princess Of Queens, but was nowhere near as sharp as what he was the start prior when bolting up, fresh. They should go quick so he’ll get back and have last look.

3 Sirbible (Bet Now: $10.00) is a ripping sprinter who resumes for David Tootell. His best is probably behind him but overall, this isn’t the strongest of races and he could easily improve against these. Really good horse fresh, should lead them up and his recent trial here was pretty good to the eye. Last 100m will be the test but he’ll give a great sight I’m sure in front.

3 Royal Rumble…(Bet Now: $2.05) gee he deserves to win a race and I think he gets his chance. Has been around the mark in each run this time in but has kept finding one or two better, the latest at Gawler (Metro) when nabbed near the peg by an in form Strategc Demand. Returns to his home track and is 1/1 at the track/distance, so perhaps up in trip will suit.

1 Balf’s Choice (Bet Now: $3.80) scored a sharp win over the mile here two back before going to the Lord Stakes at Caulfield on Boxing Day where he settled last in the run and didn’t come on at all behind So Si Bon. Returns back home and drops a fair bit in grade. The little query is the trip because he’s yet to be proven beyond the mile. Does have class on his side.

He’s probably being aimed at being a jumper, but third up, 4 Little White Cloud (Bet Now: $41.00) should just about be ready to show something positive. Ran in the Strategic Demand race at Gawler and tried hard but they were just too sharp for him. If this turns into a 600m dash for cash, he’s got no chance, but if it’s a tough 1800m, I think he could well be a knockout at odds.

7 Busker’s Ballad (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Ryan Balfour trained gelding who is working up to a win. Got a mile out of his ground last start at Gawler (Metro) over 2100m but made up really good ground in the straight behind dominant winner Good Idea. He’s got the poor racing pattern of getting back and setting himself a task but clearly has a decent engine under the hood. Just needs to sit closer in the run.

5 Crimson Tears (Bet Now: $2.10) is a Darren Weir trained mare who certainly looks one of the hardest to beat. Close up third at the Valley behind Oceanex before backing up a week later at Caulfield where she ran second to Supre, with the slow tempo not helping her racing pattern. The distance looks ideal…just depends how far back she gets from the sticky gate.

8 Converging (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Matt Cumani trained mare who should run well. Brilliant win from the back to win two starts ago at Warrnambool before going to Flemington where she was outclassed but far from disgraced behind Five Kingdoms. Significant drop in depth here for mine and the $8/thereabouts does seem overs considering the Weir mare is near odds on.

Big track and 1600m looks the ideal set up for 8 Marina (Bet Now: $8.00) to bounce back into the winners list. He has been progressing really nicely I think this prep for John Hickmott and a win isn’t far away, and I’m hoping it’s here. Ran over 1500m at Gawler (Metro) a fortnight ago where he did a good job from off the pace when fourth to the low flying Table Of Wisdom. This looks a perfect race for him.

2 Naseeb (Bet Now: $3.30) is a progressive son of More Than Ready for Sue Murphy who was backed with confidence when racing over this track/distance three weeks ago and under a lovely ride in front from Raquel Clark, he proved too good and won again despite doing a bit wrong. He’s not the finished product, there’s improvement to come, but he’s in winning form and has to be respected.

4 Canford (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Ryan Balfour trained gelding who bolted in first up at Strathalbyn, teasing that he’d be in for a very good campaign. Then he produced a shocker at Gawler (Metro) last time, settling just off the pace and failing to come on in a really disappointing effort. He’s better than that, so I think a third up bounce back should be expected.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 8 Vietti

NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 4 Kabini

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 8 Marina

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 6

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 4

Leg Three: 2, 5, 6, 7, 8

Leg Four: 2, 4, 6, 8, 12

$50 Investment= 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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