If she is to back up, can the all conquering Black Caviar record her 19th win from as many starts? Since her breathtaking performance in the TJ Smith last year, she’ll have to work for victory because Hay List is back and ready to rumble, Foxwedge loves the straight and has come on since the Spring, and Buffering plus Sister Madly can also give her a race, so the champion won’t have it all her own way.
Elsewhere, class filly Mosheen will be looking to maintain her undefeated Autumn with victory in the Vanity (1410m) against a very weak field with one or two exceptions. She should just win, even with the weight.
2011 Caufield Guineas winner and Cox Plate favourite Helmet will be resuming in the C S Hayes Stakes (1410m) against a superb bunch of colts and geldings.
The other highlight race is the Talindert Stakes (1100m) for the babies with Black Caviars sibling All Too Hard making it’s debut. Expect it to be very short in betting.
Race One: Talindert Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: Going for home track advantage with Little Red Corvette. Strong debut run behind Cambiaso. Spelled, resumed at the Valley where she led and hung on desperately to win. She’ll trim up better for that and as I always say, whenever there is a juvenile race down the straight, back the Flemington trained horses.
Don’t Back Me: All Too Hard is the sibling of Black Caviar, so people will expect it to go close to winning. But the breeding says have patience.
Big Danger: Liberty Rock made a long searching run on debut at Kyneton and did a good job to keep on keeping on. Always respect Peter Moody juveniles.
Roughie: At The Tap sat outside the speed and was ok in the Chairman’s behind Mama’s Choice. Has the experience under his belt now, and I think the $26 is good overs.
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Race Two: Gurner’s Lane Handicap 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Prepared to forgive Persian Stars run in the Werribee Cup. She had no luck and was never fully tested. Back to the bigger surroundings of Flemington, Bossy sticks and it’s a very plain race.
Don’t Back Me: Sidecar had to beat that lot last start and he did it well. He is sometimes hard to follow and he looks a bit short at $3.80.
Big Danger: Apres very rarely wins, but he appears to get his chance given there isn’t much pace here. Booking of Newitt is a key one.
Roughie: Cheviot Beach has been looking for this distance for a little while now and he strikes a winnable race from the plum barrier.
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Race Three: Festival Of Racing Handicap 1720m Form Guide
Back Me: Chasse needed to win one eventually and Symons gave him the perfect ride last start. He’ll get the perfect drop here and prove hard to beat again.
Don’t Back Me: Very rare that Oliver rides for Lloyd Williams, but that is the case with Fawkner. Just feel he might need this run under his belt.
Big Danger: Under The Hat was an immediate black booker after his beaut effort second up at Sandown. Rise in distance is perfect, we just hope he doesn’t get as far back as he did last start.
Roughie: Former Singapore galloper Ravages has had two Australian runs, with the best of those being last start at Sale when he sat on the pace and was nailed late by the handy Muirfield. Fitter, bigger track and the step up in trip appears to be ideal.
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Race Four: The Vanity 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: $1.85 for Mosheen is generous. She only needs to produce her effort at Caulfield to win again.
Don’t Back Me: Can’t say anything here because Mosheen is a good thing.
Big Danger: Notice Received picked them up in style last start at Sandown. A definite quinella/exacta chance.
Roughie: Angel Of Mercy has a turn of foot and the small field will enable her to have every chance of winning.
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Race Five: C S Hayes Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Star colt Helmet looks the winner here. Goes well fresh, drawn perfectly, trialled super under the lights at Cranbourne and again, given his record, he is weighted to win.
Don’t Back Me: That’s The One did finish off strongly first up behind Mosheen, but the query is always there that he might race flat second up after a big fresh run.
Big Danger: Wouldn’t say ‘big danger’, but the decision to back up with Decircles is a good one because he raced very flat last Saturday and the quick step up in journey is right up his alley.
Roughie: Taxi Driver won like a quality galloper at the Valley after sitting wide no cover yet powering away for a soft victory. Place chance.
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Race Six: Coolmore Lightning Stakes 1000m Form Guide
Back Me: Black Caviar.
Don’t Back Me: Can’t say anything here again.
Big Danger: $9 for Hay List does seem juicy, because if he is 100% right, we know he can at least give the champion mare a race and remember, she is coming back 400m in distance.
Roughie: Buffering handles the straight course well. Rodd will have him on the pace and he should fight on for a first four finish.
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Race Seven: Tab Sportsbet Handicap 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Big fan of Speediness. Did the job well enough in a $75,000 quality at Sale first up. Better ridden off the pace. If Bossy does that, then he’ll be hard to beat.
Don’t Back Me: Pago Rock only just found enough to beat Like An Eagle at Sandown when resuming. Like An Eagle spanked his rivals in the Hareeba at Mornington on Wednesday so the form is strong, but I wouldn’t take short odds about him.
Big Danger: Parthian had the right run and had to win last start, which he did. He’ll get a similar run here, and although there is a 2kg rise, he can do a repeat.
Roughie: Rockpecker was a bit unlucky in the same race that Speediness contested at Sale. Williams is back on, he’ll push forward and run a cheeky race.
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Race Eight: Heron Bridge Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Columbus has had no luck in his last starts, being caught wide no cover. He’ll get cover from the ideal gate here and he handles the straight course very well. Good value bet to end the afternoon.
Don’t Back Me: Bigelow has talent, and he was scratched from the Hareeba on Wednesday for this, but I feel he might be a touch flat second up. I’ll be happy to watch and see what he does.
Big Danger: Spirited Eagle is a quality gelding who can produce a run when resuming. Drawn to get the cheap run on the fence, he’ll be hard to beat with luck.
Roughie: I was taken by Rock Classics first up run behind Black Caviar at the Valley. Suspect he’ll have the ‘second up syndrome’ after such a long time off, but I’ll be interested to see what he does.
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