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The Caulfield Carnival continues this Wednesday where it is Blue Sapphire Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (13:30) Ladbrokes Up For The Challenge Handicap (84) 2400m

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Back Me

7 Regal Monarch (Bet Now: $16.00) looks great each-way value for mine in the opener. Been following him since the start of the prep and he did put in a howler first up behind Special Missile. Trialled twice afterwards and ran at Warwick Farm where he got back and worked home well late in the piece behind Olympic Academy. Gets good weight relief and has the upside.

Danger

6 Sin To Win (Bet Now: $6.00) is a former kiwi for the Hayes/Dabernig team who had started to test the patience of punters but he got back in the good books with a tough win at Mornington last time out. Looked in a bit of trouble on the turn when headed but he kept finding under hard riding from Regan to get the win. Loses nothing with McEvoy taking over and I think up to 2400m is ideal.

Long Shot

3 Settler’s Stone (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Tassie raider who attempted to lead all the way in the Ansett Classic at Mornington and was given peach in front from Linda Meech, but the six year old just couldn’t quite finish it off well enough and had to settle for third to Swacadelic. Looks to map well here and Oliver takes over.

Race 2. (14:00) Hamilton Reid Handicap (78) 2000m

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Back Me

8 Sherlock Holmes (Bet Now: $6.00) is bursting to win a race and I think he gets his chance here. Team Williams trained six year old who ran over 2400m at Bendigo last Wednesday where he looked to be bolting in the run but just got held up at a crucial stage before eventually getting clear and grinding away strongly. Back to 2000m is the niggle, but gets really good weight relief and Mick Dee takes over.

Danger

13 Malmas (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Chris Waller stayer who can be hot and cold at times but I thought there was plenty of merit in his first up win over the mile on Benalla Cup Day. Sat back near last in a fast run affair before Symons presented him to the outside where he finished off with purpose late in the piece to win. Up to 2000m is ideal and Oliver rides.

Long Shot

5 The Thug (Bet Now: $17.00) got a well deserved win when racing over the 2000m at Mornington two back in leading all the way. Adopted the same tactics at the track/distance next start and just felt the pinch when fifth to Sin To Win. Doesn’t look to be much pressure on speed so I think Nolen can press forward here comfortably and take some beating.

Race 3. (14:35) Alannah Hill Plate (70) 1600m

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Back Me

Some promising types but I think the pick of them has to be the Aaron Purcell trained 4 Villermont (Bet Now: $2.25). He ran over the mile in a maiden on Benalla Cup Day where he started short odds and right up to that support with an absolute spank job of his rivals under Luke Nolen. He ran around four lengths quicker than the other two mile races on the same program, and that is a big tick for a young horse. Confident he can measure up.

Danger

5 Vin De Dance (Bet Now: $6.50) is the very interesting runner. Former kiwi making his Australian debut for the Baker/Forsman team after three runs back home to kick off his career and he was pretty good every time he stepped out, albeit in races which didn’t have much depth to them. The big tick here is that he maps well and Oliver steers.

Long Shot

12 Lilas (Bet Now: $18.00) is a filly trained by Robert Smerdon who has shown good promise in two career outings. Looked in a bit of trouble when resuming on the Geelong Synthetic but she found a way and savaged the line to win. Form out of that has been average but her recent Cranbourne trial was very good to the eye

Race 4. (15:10) Ladbrokes Odds Boost Exotic Handicap (84) 1400m

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Back Me

Hard to look outside 3 Steel Frost (Bet Now: $4.20). This horse has been a revelation since coming to the Will Clarken stable, winning three of three. Bolted up in first two runs back home in SA before racing at this track/distance on Underwood Day where he was given a sweet trip by Pannell, getting three wide cover before peeling and presenting at the right time to win. He can continue the picket fence here.

Danger

6 Wall Street Wolf (Bet Now: $6.50) is a bit of an enigma but he is putting together a nice little winning streak next to his name. Toughed it out to win a couple on the Geelong Synthetic but proved that was no fluke with a commanding performance against some nice types on Benalla Cup Day. Has measured up in town before. He can again.

Long Shot

14 Jalan Jalan (Bet Now: $17.00) is a talented mare for the Colin Little stable who hasn’t raced for a few weeks since racing over 1100m here where she was very unlucky in the straight and should have finished much closer behind Snitty Kitty. Ran well in the Tressady at this distance in the Autumn so the 1400m is no issue and with clear air, I think she’s a knockout chance.

Race 5. (15:45) Nick Johnstone Real Estate Ladies Day Vase 1600m

Back Me

2 Flying Jess (Bet Now: $4.80) just picks herself here doesn’t she. Quality mare for the John Moloney camp who did a great job I thought last time out in the Stocks to close off as well as she did against the pattern of the night when second to I Am A Star. That’s the main form for this I’d say, she maps well, Angland on…ticks a lot of boxes.

Danger

3 Hell Or Highwater (Bet Now: $3.80) sat outside I Am A Star in the Stocks and I think if Yendall had his time over again, he’d put a bit more pressure on that mare instead of allowing Melham to get such cheap fractions. Hell Or Highwater just didn’t have the zip to go with that mare but she stuck on really well in defeat. Expecting her to lead here and take some beating.

Long Shot

5 Happy Hannah (Bet Now: $15.00) has had two runs back now for the Hayes/Dabernig team and I think she has been quite good each time she has stepped out. Had little to no luck first up in the Let’s Elope before going to the Stocks where she was one of many on the night who just got back and couldn’t make sufficient ground in the run home. If they can run on here, I think she is a knockout hope at decent odds.

Race 6. (16:25) Catanach's Jewellers Blue Sapphire Stakes 1200m

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Back Me

Sticking fat with 2 Jukebox (Bet Now: $3.80) despite the gate. Two runs back from a spell have been very good. Resumed with a gutsy win in the Vain before going to the Danehill where he was far from disgraced in running a close up second to Catchy after doing the work on speed. Been freshened up and his trial last week was outstanding.

Danger

10 Crown Witness (Bet Now: $4.80) has to be given serious respect here. All you can do is win and that is what this girl has done, winning three from three, the latest being in the Quezette where she held out star filly Catchy. Been targeted towards this and possibly the Coolmore, and she looks spot on based on a trial win last week at Cranbourne.

Long Shot

Summer Passage (Bet Now: $8.00) looks to be at a good price seeings he is likely to go forward which was a massive advtange at Caulfield on Saturday. He comes through the Caulfield Guineas Prelude which the form held up in Saturday’s Guineas and with showers predicted later in the week the cut out of the ground will only help his chances.

Race 7. (17:05) italktravel Stakes 1200m

Back Me

Keen here on 8 Rich Charm (Bet Now: $3.90). This talented sprinter resumed over 1100m here on Underwood and gee, if you were on him, it was just an utter nightmare if you were on. Just had no luck getting a clear run and really, he should have won for mine when fourth to Badajoz. Not the greatest of second up records, but hard to ignore off what he did fresh.

Danger

3 Bassett (Bet Now: $11.00) trialled up nicely prior to resuming over 1100m here on Underwood Day and he was another that was very unlucky not to finish closer. Just got bailed away behind runners and was never really clear when finishing down the track behind Badajoz. Draws to get a sweet sit off the pace and goes well second up.

Long Shot

4 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $7.00) is an absolute beauty for the Neville Parnham team. He ran in the Gilgai down the Flemington straight last start where he was enormous in defeat. Pulled hard off the pace before getting the split and chasing hard, just missing out on picking up Keen Array. Meets that horse 3.5kg better here and likes Caulfield.

Race 8. (17:45) Thebigscreencompany.com.au Handicap (84) 1700m

Back Me

12 Tiamo Grace (Bet Now: $6.50) is a very good mare for Darren Weir who has been outstanding in both runs back from a break without much luck. Loomed to win the Heatherlie at Caulfield but just got chopped out when about to burst through and should have finished much closer behind Hell Or Highwater. Third up now, she should be ready and finds a winnable race.

Danger

14 Silvera (Bet Now: $3.30) is very short in betting for mine. Still, he goes in the numbers because he has been ultra impressive in two runs back from a break. Ridden a treat by Kah to win first up over 1400m on the Parks track before producing another beauty over the Flemington mile where she took care of an average lot. Harder here, but draws the paint and being third up, she should be ready fitness wise.

Long Shot

7 Anaheim (Bet Now: $5.50) was given a lovely ride by Zac Spain to win over 1800m here two back before racing in the Benalla Cup where nothing really went right for him and for mine he was a forgive behind Lord Fandango, who of course franked the form in the Herbert Power. Back to 1700m and Bowman on are two massive ticks.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Three Number 4 Villermont

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 8 Rich Charm

VALUE: Race One Number 7 Regal Monarch

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3, 5

Leg Two: 2, 6, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11

Leg Four: 7, 11, 12, 14

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