The Belmont Winter Carnival continues on Saturday where it is Belmont Newmarket Day. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (14:28) Fiona Lacey's Unmentionable Birthday Plate 1000m
Really good race for the three year olds but 2 Agent Pippa (Bet Now: $2.40) clearly looks the horse to beat. Very good filly who resumes for the Pearce team after a two run Autumn prep, with the second run resulting in a Gimcrack win. It’ll be really interesting to see how far she can get, and whether she gets to Melbourne, but I think she’s got the brilliance to beat these.
7 Flirtini (Bet Now: $3.30) is an Artie Schiller filly on debut for the Simon Miller team. This girl trialled like a bomb late last year before being spelled. Trialled at the end of July and looked very good in winning. Takes on a couple of above average types here but looks a real pro and the good lead is that Pike steers.
1 Fire And Rain (Bet Now: $4.80) is six weeks between runs for Paul Jordan since racing over this track/distance where he did a stack of work on speed and tried very hard when being outbobbed on the peg by Essential Spice. Likely gets the cart over via Agent Pippa and does have residual fitness on his side, so I’m sure he’ll make this a tough five furlongs.
Race 2. (15:04) Tabtouch Maiden 1400m
7 Kelly’s Secret (Bet Now: $4.60) on top and pretty confident he goes close. Resumed over 1300m here last Wednesday where he was out the back and seemingly doing nothing but once he was given a dig in the ribs and asked for the big effort, he really attacked the line late to run third. If there is no second up syndrome, he just about wins.
1 Patrocity (Bet Now: $1.80) looks well placed back to the maiden level after resuming in a Class One over 1200m here last Wednesday where he was on speed all the way and looked to travel well but was no match late for the brilliance of Crystal Spirit. Clearly not as much depth this time around and Pike takes over.
10 Bellflower (Bet Now: $35.00) could add some value to exotics. Just under a month between runs since racing over 1400m at Kalgoorlie where the pace was an absolute crawl and given she was back near last, she really had no chance of finishing over the top when fifth to Coolgardie Al. A more genuine tempo here, she can run much better.
Race 3. (15:44) Legrand Galaxy Handicap (1MW) 1600m
4 Freo (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the one. Daniel O’Connor trains this gelding, who is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he was given a very good ride and for the most part looked the winner but was bloused late by Battle Torque, who of course franked the form by winning last Saturday. Reads well for this.
7 Everymile A Memory (Bet Now: $4.00) is a Choisir mare for the Adam Durrant team who now has a win on the board for the prep and could well go on with it. Ran over the mile at Pinjarra last Thursday where she sat wide throughout but given the track was a bog, it was no disadvantage, and really her class came to the fore late. More depth, but has upside and Pike sticks.
2 Taxadermy (Bet Now: $6.50) can definitely bounce back if he strikes firmer footing. Ran over this track/distance last Wednesday on the bog where he loomed large but on the wet track, the wheels were spinning and he couldn’t lift his feet when fourth to Juicing Carrots. Gate one and Smith back on, this horse can definitely turn it around.
Race 4. (16:24) Vale Dale Gardener Handicap (1MW) 1200m
2 Big Caroline (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me. This girl is four weeks between runs after racing over 1200m here where she got well back off the pace but finished off hard late to run second to Count Tomoz Off. Tricky gate to overcome, but the booking of Pike is noteworthy and she’s a mare who thrives on a track with give in it.
This race is all about 3 Pym’s Royale (Bet Now: $2.70) and how he handles the metro level because if he can, he should prove hard to beat here. Dominant win in the Magic Millions at Kalgoorlie last time where he did a bit of work in the run, wanted to pull hard but his class came to the fore. Finds a very winnable city race and Pateman sticks.
4 Nashville Cat (Bet Now: $8.50) is on the quick back up for the Adam Durrant team after racing over 1300m here last Saturday where she was on speed throughout and gave a pretty decent kick under Knuckey but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Turbo Power. Like her back to 1200m and hopefully on firmer footing.
Race 5. (17:04) John Pope Handicap (66+) 2100m
11 Truly Belong (Bet Now: $2.90) gets the nod but you could go a number of ways here. I’ll go the way of the Durrant/Pike combo and this mare, who ran over 2000m last Thursday at Pinajrra where she worked home strongly late but was no match for the dominance of Prying Tom. Will be better on a firmer track, fitter and Pike remains on. Looks the safe option.
9 Jazari (Bet Now: $5.00) looks suited up to 2100m. He ran over the mile here last Saturday where some punters liked him at odds, backing him into nearly single figures after opening $51, and the bets were almost landed when a gutsy third to the in form Battle Torque. Back up in trip and with the hard run under the belt, he can win.
The step up in trip should hopefully suit 3 Juicing Carrots (Bet Now: $6.50). Was three weeks between runs when winning over the mile here last Saturday where he showed really good grit on speed despite being challenged. He is a winner at the trip and does have a stack of upside to the eye. Can definitely win.
Race 6. (17:40) Quayclean Handicap (66+) 1200m
I’ll take the chance on 10 Top Of The Class (Bet Now: $3.50), a talented mare who resumes for the Michael Lane team. This quality mare hasn’t raced since February when midfield in a strong mares race at Pinjarra won by Royal Missile. Inside draw, Pike on, trials have been good and the big tick is the dreaded bar plates are off.
Fitness levels are a bit unknown but have to respect 3 Great Again (Bet Now: $2.90). The Lindsey Smith trained gelding is six weeks between runs since scoring a third win on the bounce via a tough on speed win at this track/distance. He is a dynamite fresh horse and the claim for Tayla Stone definitely helps his cause.
7 Conseated (Bet Now: $21.00) is a daughter of Passenger resuming for the Simon Miller team. This girl attempted to lead all the way at this track/distance in mid June and tried hard but was no class for a future Group l horse in Enticing Star. Trialled up well last Monday here and she’s a mare who has a fab first up record.
Race 7. (18:15) Belmont Newmarket 1200m
Was on 7 Yeah Dardy (Bet Now: $6.50) when he won at decent odds last Wednesday and I think he can repeat the dose. The race last Wednesday over 1000m and he was given a lovely ride off the pace before angling clear and having last say. Just has to tick the 1200m box and I think he should do that from the inside draw.
9 Oliver’s Travels (Bet Now: $3.50) is a son of Saxon resuming for the Simon Miller yard. This bloke really came of age during the Summer/Autumn, ending the prep with a narrow second in the Bunbury Stakes. Very good fresh horse and looked sharp in a trial placing here last Monday. Pike on a good lead also.
Very interesting to see what 4 Dream Lifter (Bet Now: $31.00) does here. This horse was formerly with Paul Hunter but is now with Jim Taylor. His best would see him go quite close to beating these and his trial here last Monday was solid enough to the eye without really being fully extended. Tricky gate, but has class/quality.
Race 8. (18:55) Amelia Park Lodge Handicap (72+) 1000m
I’m going with 2 Epic Grey (Bet Now: $3.50) but it’s a tricky race to sort out with confidence. Resumed down the straight last Thursday at Pinjarra and tried hard but couldn’t quite get the win when second to Sharpbob. I think he can get the cart over via Sharpbob and if that eventuates, he’s the horse to beat for sure.
5 I Am Incredible (Bet Now: $8.50) comes through the Sharpbob race down the Pinjarra straight last Thursday where he had clear air for the most part and as such, he pulled very hard and had nothing left for the straight. I think with the gate here, he can be put to sleep on the rail and if he relaxes, he can bounce back.
There are a couple of horses who will get the suck run behind the speed, the first of which is 3 Snow Lord (Bet Now: $14.00), who is four weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance where he couldn’t quite let down on the bog track when fourth to Undisclosed. If the track is firmer, I think he comes right into play.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Six Number 10 Top Of The Class
NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Kelly’s Secret
LONG SHOT: Race Seven Number 7 Yeah Dardy
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 9, 11
Leg Two: 3, 10
Leg Three: 2, 3, 4, 7, 9
Leg Four: 2, 3, 5, 8
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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