18/4/2022 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Warwick Farm, Easter Monday races

Warwick Farm will play host to an eight event Easter Monday program this week. The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Tavi L’Amour (Bet Now: $2.60) on top in the opener. John O’Shea trained filly that resumes, having not raced since the Spring when racing in a couple of strong maidens, where she got back and found the line pretty well without threatening. Given a good break, have loved the way she’s trialled and I do think she finds a very thin race.

1 Mystic Mermaid (Bet Now: $4.20) can improver on a firmer footing for Chris Waller. She resumed on a Heavy274 at Newcastle and like most that meeting, struggled to pick the feet up so a total forgive when third. Back onto better conditions, upside to come in a leading camp, she can bounce back.

2 Desi Girl (Bet Now: $15.00) should appreciate a rise in trip. Chris Waller trains this filly, who debuted over 1300m at Newcastle and stuck to the task quite well when third, racing like she wants more ground, which she gets here. Might want 1600m+, but suspect she’ll be strong late.

Market will be fascinating with 5 Taurasi (Bet Now: $3.80), who resumes for Joe Pride. Hasn’t raced since his debut in the Kindergarten last year when fourth to Paulele, which clearly reads well for this. His trials have been nothing sharp, but Blinkers on, not worn in the trials, and hard in the market, tells me he’s done something at home with them on that has impressed.

6 Fearnought (Bet Now: $3.10) is a beautifully bred filly for Chris Waller that resumes. Was around the mark in her first prep without winning, but the form around does read quite well. Just one soft trial leading in and bred in the purple, I’d assume they will aim at potential blacktype if the form warrants it.

3 Frizelle (Bet Now: $10.00) is a Vancouver filly on debut and I think watch the market with her. The breeding would suggest she will be better over slightly further, but has trialled well leading in and drawn soft with W Pike to steer, I think she’ll be quite strong at the end and is at good odds.

14 Ultra (Bet Now: $4.40) is worth an each way ticket. This filly resumed over 900m at Newcastle where she was chasing from the outset and loved the way she picked up late, just missing out on the win when a narrow second to Selhurst Park. Fitter and up to 1100m from the inside gate, she appeals as a leading contender.

5 Celtic Harp (Bet Now: $3.50) is a John O’Shea trained three year old that resumes. Was formerly with Chris Waller and did run positive races when last in work in some races where the form out of them has been strong. One soft trial leading in but J Mac booked fresh says to me there is intent to resume a winner for new connections.

4 Captain Kenny (Bet Now: $10.00) has home track advantage and these runners on the home track at Warwick Farm should always be respected. He was smashed in betting when debuting at Gosford back in October when near the speed and just battled late. Given a good break, has trialled well leading in…if he remains double figures, I’ll have a speck.

2 Cuban Royale (Bet Now: $4.60) on top in a tricky race. Team Price trained gelding that resumed over 1000m here in what was more or less a trial for him, but I liked the way he finished his race off behind Athelric. Tick over trial was strong, he likes the conditions and up to 1300m, small field, he’ll run well.

3 Cafe Royal (Bet Now: $2.40) is a key threat. Nathan Doyle traisn this talented mare, who knuckled down strongly to win at the midweeks at Canterbury, really surging the final few strides to nab them on the peg. Good record at Warwick Farm and loves getting her toe in. Key chance.

7 Two Up (Bet Now: $4.40) is a beauty for David Atkins but he is finding it hard to win. Ran as brave as ever at Rosehill three weeks ago in a Midway but was clearly no match for Tampering. He’s finding it hard to win, but is around the mark and finds a winnable race I suspect.

12 Camino Real (Bet Now: $2.70) gets the nod. James Cummings trained filly that hasn’t raced since her resumption at Wyong on February where she looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted in a dominant display. Trials since have been strong, gets J Mac to steer and has good change up speed. She’ll do me.

11 Vivid Flash (Bet Now: $4.00) is a filly with talent for Chris Waller. Ran on a complete bog at Canterbury at the midweeks and she tried hard. Was hailed as the winner but was bloused late by American President. Drawn wide, but that’s no issue at this start and she’s hard fit/in form.

9 I Am Brazen (Bet Now: $8.00) deserves another chance. She raced against the older horses at Canterbury and like most that meeting, couldn’t pick her feet up on the bog and finished well and truly down the track. Form prior was sound so on a firmer deck (assuming), have to give her another look.

3 Athelric (Bet Now: $3.00) is a three year old with good talent. Just found a bit sharp fresh over 900m at Newcastle before going to 1000m at Warwick Farm where he gave them a spanking under Bowman, bolting up in solid time. He showed promise in the Spring…is he fulfilling that potential now? Time will tell.

8 Satin Ribbons (Bet Now: $3.40) is a sharp filly for Team Snowden that resumes. She did a really good job in the Spring, winning her first two runs for the prep before a game second to Dragonstone at Kembla on Gong Day. Trials leading in have been quite sharp, she’ll land on speed and prove hard to to beat.

2 Broken Arrows (Bet Now: $26.00) will be the first runner for David Pfieffer since returning. This horse is a very capable galloper and will love a firmer track. He hated the mud at Randwick last time and be forgiving of the effort behind Gravina. His best is good enough to be dangerous.

14 Democracy Manifest (Bet Now: $2.05) is a very interesting runner. Formerly with Kody Nestor, this gelding now finds himself with Chris Waller. Talented horse, but I am stunned he is favourite. Two runs last prep, bolting up in a maiden fresh at Dubbo before a game second at Port Macquarie. With all the scratchings, he becomes top pick, a clear top pick, but not a betting proposition at the shorts.

9 Assiduity (Bet Now: $2.80) is the only other winning chance. Heavily backed when resuming in a Hawkesbury maiden and he justified the weight of money with a spank job all the way win over 1100m. Seems to handle wet ground okay, he’ll land on speed and has the right racing pattern.

8 Witness Collector (Bet Now: $17.00) brings with him some okay-ish country from, but he could sneak a first four spot. Ran in the feature sprint race on Orange Cup Day and wasn’t too bad in defeat behind a handy horse in Quiet Riot. Like him up to 1200m and should be strong late.

Lottery to close out the card. Specking 13 Outlook (Bet Now: $7.50) each way. Resumes for Brad Widdup and although she is a 2000m+ mare, her trials leading in have been quite strong and first up at 1600m tells me this isn’t a prep run like resuming at 1200m. It’s a trip, on this ground, she can win, and Pike steers.

10 Whodat (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing in really good form at the moment for Matty Dunn. Put together a couple of sharp wins at Newcastle before going to Canterbury where he got a mile back in the run but liked his finale behind Philipsburg. Bigger track and closer in the run, he’ll take beating.

11 Fill Of Fun (Bet Now: $11.00) will love returning to this grade. She has been kept on ice since being thrown in the deep end at Stakes grade, being outclassed in the Aspiration and Epona. Back to 72 grade for her and with the claim for Schiller, I think her best is certainly good enough.

BEST BET: Race One Number 6 Tavi L’Amour

NEXT BEST: Race Six Number 3 Athelric

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 13 Outlook

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 5, 11, 12, 14

Leg Two: 3, 8

Leg Three: 2, 8, 9, 14

Leg Four: 1, 7, 10, 11, 13

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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