18/4/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, The Showdown day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday, where it is VOBIS Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

The Showdown 🏆: View the Field for The Showdown

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6 Jumbo Ozaki (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS) is yet to miss a placing in nine career outings. Danny O’Brien trains this gelding, who was enormous in defeat three weeks ago at Bendigo when wide no cover for the trip yet kept finding and was very good behind Big Night Out. Does he want 1600m now? Perhaps, but he’s got a touch of class on his side.

4 Simply Optimistic (Bet Now: $5.00 TOP ODDS) should take a power of beating here. Kiwi gelding that resumed three weeks ago at Bendigo and really, it was pretty much another barrier trial for him. Just had no luck at all in the straight when seemingly bolting for a run and should have finished much closer. Had trialled well leading in so have to give him another chance.

10 Villa Sarchi (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is ready to win now. Caught the eye at Bendigo behind Beautiful Flyer before backing up a week later at this track/distance and was one of the runs of the day from the back when second to impressive winner Buffalo River. Has taken a while to get to peak fitness IMO and now he has it, think he goes close.

1 Twitchy Frank (Bet Now: $2.70 TOP ODDS) won this race last year and looks on track to repeat the dose. Had just under two months off prior to racing in the Bendigo Bracelet three weeks ago where she attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when third to Snogging. Fitter, has class and should take some beating off an identical set up to last year.

6 Clarice Cliffs (Bet Now: $2.60 TOP ODDS) is a Greg Eurell mare who is knocking on the door to take one out. Comes through the Bendigo Bracelet from three weeks ago where she was given a 12/10 steer by McNeil and did everything bar win. Just found one too good, just, in Snogging. Bursting to win a race and gets a good chance here I feel.

10 Marcada (Bet Now: $26.00 TOP ODDS) looks the knockout chance here. Gavin Bedgegood trains this filly, who rises significantly in grade/depth but the run at Cranbourne last start was full of merit given she was making her run out wide, and that night, if you were trying to swoop out wide, you were running quicksand, so the run was good. Both stable and jockey Dwayne Dunn have always talked her up as a good horse. Think she can run a race here at odds.

4 Ashlor (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) ran a beauty in this race last year and looks on track to repeat the dose. Ran over 1000m here a fortnight back when on speed in a high pressure contest. He could have turned it up but kept finding and was only bloused late by the flying Diamond Effort. Back up to 1200m is a massive tick and if he gets on speed without spending too many petrol tickets, he’ll look the winner for a long way.

2 Pippie (Bet Now: $1.95 TOP ODDS) is the one to beat on form. Brilliant sustained speed saw her win the Oakleigh Plate first up before going to the William Reid where she took cover behind Loving Gaby and Bivouac. Tried hard and battled away really well in defeat behind Loving Gaby. Back to this level, she’ll jump, run and prove very hard to get past.

12 Street Icon (Bet Now: $21.00 TOP ODDS) is flying for Kevin Corstens, albeit in easier races than this. Ran over 1000m at Sandown last time out when off the speed and spotting those in front a few lengths at the top of the straight, but loved the way she knuckled down to get there in the final couple of strides. 1200m should suit and does have a good finale on her when she gets conditions to suit.

1 Mr Quickie (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS) has been really poorly placed in two runs this prep but finally he finds the right race. I say poorly placed, but to be fair, the rub of the green hasn’t gone his way each time. First up in the All Star Mile, never really got a chance to let down properly. Then went to the Doncaster and again, no real clear air in the straight. Out to a more ideal trip now, third up, hard fit and is the class runner.

4 Declares War (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS) is on the quick back up for Matt Cumani after racing over 2100m last Wednesday at Sandown. Thought it was a very good ride from Tommy Stockdale and did everything bar win, but had to settle for second to The Black Leopard. Hard fit, McNeil on from a good draw, he’s the key and perhaps only threat to Mr Quickie.

10 Big Brew (Bet Now: $16.00 TOP ODDS) is racing as if 2000m will suit. Good late over the mile at the Valley two back before having a month off and racing at 1600m again, this time at Sandown, when on speed, and trying hard when second to Astraeus. Gets to the 2000m, which is what he was looking for after the Valley I think. Not sure he wins, but include in exotics.

5 Kubrick (Bet Now: $7.50) is one of the better gambles of the weekend across Australia IMO on the proviso the track is a Good4. On face value, you can assume he’s been terrible this time in. But after his Carbine Club effort at Randwick, it well and truly confirmed that he is legless on wet ground, so with fine weather forecast, the track should be good and his form on dry ground is lengths better than these.

1 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Danny O’Brien trained five year old that didn’t handle the wet track first up at Flemington behind Wild Planet before going to the Bendigo Mile where he was well supported at odds and the bets were almost landed, but he just found one better in Hellova Street. Third up, hard fit now and is a leading chance.

10 Benitoite (Bet Now: $6.50) is going well for Clinton McDonald. Far from disgraced in the Coolmore Classic before going to this track/distance two weeks ago where I thought Olly rode a rare poor race on the mare. Did far too much work in the run to get on speed and had nothing left for the straight. What upside does she have left? Not sure, but form around her reads well.

15. Archipeta Beach (Bet Now: $5.50) was an impressive winner on debut albeit at Geelong but this race doesn’t look to deep so it does look decent form. The form from the Geelong race has stacked up since and on exposed form she is the horse to beat in a difficult race to dissect.

13 Chrome Angel (Bet Now: $7.50) is a Street Boss filly for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that had jumped out well prior to her debut in a strong 2YO maiden at Bendigo but despite the jumpout work, she started $25+. Got a lovely run of the speed and what was most impressive is that she copped a bump in looking for a split and she took the gap, dashing late to win well. Has to be respected.

3 Galactic Fury (Bet Now: $31.00) is a definite watch here. Maher/Eustace trained juvenile that had a busy first prep in the Spring, and ran well in some tidy races without winning. Recent jumpout looked more than encouraging to the eye and the overall form around doesn’t read too bad for this. On that, he’s a contender here for sure.

Going to give 3 Malibu Style (Bet Now: $26.00) another chance. Was keen on him running well when he resumed here two weeks ago over 1000m but was four wide on a hot speed and was a beaten horse at the top of the straight. To his credit, he stuck on really well behind Diamond Effort. Takes good improvement from that run and like him up to 1100m.

7 Runson (Bet Now: $13.00) is racing with good endeavour at the moment. Loved the way he toughed it out on speed to win the Matrice on Adelaide Cup Day two back before going to the Hareeba when attempting to lead all the way and looking home, only to be bloused near the peg by Diamond Effort. Looks the leader again and should prove hard to run down.

15 Coruscate (Bet Now: $9.00) is a James Cummings trained five year old who should have plenty more left up the sleeve. Had a break between runs prior to racing at Bendigo three weeks ago where he got into a sweet spot just off the speed before angling wider and showing a good turn of foot to win well. Has upside and should prove hard to beat again.

10 Knowles (Bet Now: $4.60) has returned in really good order for Jason Warren. Ran sharp time in beating an average lot first up at Ballarat but proved that was no one off with a strong second in a fast run 1100m race won by the in form Ancestry. Should be hard fit now and provided that race hasn’t busted her. she’s right in this.

14 Felicia (Bet Now: $4.80) is the big watch here. Talented filly that is now with Dean Binaisse. Hasn’t raced since her 2YO season back in the early Summer of 2018/19 where she put together two very impressive wins and at the time was talked up as a potential Blue Diamond candidate. Has obviously had her problems but is back racing and her recent jumpout saw her win in solid enough time.

15 Screenager (Bet Now: $27.00) is one I’d be including in multiples. Disappointed in two NSW runs to start the prep before coming back to Melbourne and contesting the Ancestry race from a fortnight ago here where she was okay from the back despite never being a winning threat. Gets firmer ground and her form from the Spring…any hint of that here and she’ll go close.

Leaning towards 3 Ocular (Bet Now: $5.00) in the get out. Ridden upside down first up at the Valley in a total forgive behind Overkill before going to Sandown where he was ridden very cold and launched late to just miss out on picking up Golden Gorge. Third up at 1600m looks ideal and gets run of the race you would assume from the good barrier.

12 Affair To Remember (Bet Now: $4.40) is a filly who I have always had time for. Chased a very hot speed in a game resumption, finishing third to Talented. Then raced at Sandown again when getting back and under a lovely ride from Michael Poy, took narrow splits and burst through late to win. Tricky gate again, but gets Olly to steer.

11 Don’ttelltheboss (Bet Now: $10.00) looks as if she’ll be suited up to the mile. Ran over 1400m here two weeks ago where she was back near last in the run on a day where being near the pace was an advantage. Loved the way she finished her race off behind Oasis Girl. Yet to be proven at the trip but is racing as if it will suit her. Giving her chance in a good race.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Mr Quickie

NEXT BEST: Race One Number 6 Jumbo Ozaki

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 5 Kubrick

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 3, 10, 13, 15

Leg Two: 1, 3, 7, 14, 15

Leg Three: 2, 10, 14, 15

Leg Four: 1, 3, 8, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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