18/12/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Moonee Valley

Eight races will be run and won under the lights at Moonee Valley this Friday evening. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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Bit to play out here with several runners dual accepted at the time of writing. As it stands, I’m with 1 Japery (Bet Now: $3.00), who is second up here for Patrick Payne. Resumed over 1000m at Wangaratta against the older horses and was much too good for them in a fast run race, the time being inside standard time comfortably. If she can get a decent cart into the race, think she’s the one to beat.

2 Esta La Roca (Bet Now: $3.40) does have the right racing pattern to take this out. Completely unwanted late in betting when resuming over 955m here but he produced good sustained speed from near the front and was too good for his rivals. Back to his own age now…1000m is a little query, but the inside gate and 3kg claim helps.

8 Zooming Zebra (Bet Now: $12.00) looks big odds here given the form around her from the Spring. Gave them a spanking to win fresh at Echuca before three starts which saw her finish behind Bella Nipotina, Tydeus and September Run respectively…how well does that read for this? Just want to see a market push and if there is one, I’d be happy to speck at the price.

Looks a race in two and at the better odds, I’m going the way of 3 Nikau Spur (Bet Now: $3.90). Well supported when making his Australian debut at Bendigo. On face value, he was disappointing, but just think he wanted more ground being one paced and grinding away, so rising to the mile I do like and overall, this race is rather thin.

5 Supreme Thunder (Bet Now: $1.65) is a deserving favourite, but could I get him as short as $1.70/thereabouts? No way. He’s progressive and will win his share of races over time. Just very raw and new still, as was the case last time out at this track/distance when second to Seb Song. Gets gate one and Winkers applied. Can clearly win, but couldn’t touch at the odds.

He’s not a long shot as such, but 4 Get In The Queue (Bet Now: $4.40) is third pick in a very thin maiden. Sat on speed last time out at Kilmore in a maiden and he fought on strongly, only getting the staggers late when a close up second to Adonis Rock. Should roll forward from the gate and give a sight, especially if he can get control.

Bit surprised that 5 Redissent (Bet Now: $6.00) isn’t closer to favourite. He’s got a few convictions next to his name, but gee his maiden win on Werribee Cup Day was quite dominant and the form out of that has already been ticked off. McNeil sticks, he draws gate one and $6.50/thereabouts, happily can back him each way.

3 Tycoon Bec (Bet Now: $1.95) looks a talented mare for Matt Cumani but gee she’s short enough. Market found her on debut at Kyneton and it was spot on. Sat on speed and booted clear late for a rather dominant win in okay time relative to the meeting. Gets the claim for Will Price, should land near the speed and prove hard to beat. Just way too short.

1 Bossdom (Bet Now: $11.00) looks suited up in trip. He was 1450m back to 1400m last time out at Werribee and worked home okay without really threatening behind Brazen Song. The rise to the 1523m I do like for him and gets in well after the claim. Just a matter of where he gets to in the run from a tricky barrier.

3 Real Feeling (Bet Now: $2.25) is clearly on top for me. Warren/Krongold trained filly that jumped out quite sharply prior to her resumption at Wodonga where she was heavily backed and although was helped by the track pattern, even allowing for that, she spanked them and was most impressive. If she can build on that, she’s the one to beat.

7 Malicorne (Bet Now: $6.50) is a talented filly for Matt Laurie that resumes. This girl hasn’t raced since the Spring when outclassed and probably at the end of her prep when down the track in the Jim Moloney behind subsequent Thousand Guineas winner Odeum. Draws soft for her return and she has good form around her from last prep, plus a recent jumpout was quite encouraging.

11 My Best Effort (Bet Now: $14.00) is a daughter of Brazen Beau for Chris Waller that is first up. She is resuming after breaking her maiden status at Bendigo back on October 17 on heavy ground under a lovely ride from Brad Rawiller. Liked her recent jumpout and anything Lane is riding at the moment has to be respected.

12 Almadrava (Bet Now: $4.80) will need luck in the run from the draw, but think she has returned in good order. Resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago where she drew inside there as well. Just didn’t get the breaks when she needed them behind Esta La Roca. Lane is riding in fab form at the moment and if she can hold up from the gate, she’ll be strong late.

10 Glenferrie Girl (Bet Now: $3.60) has done little wrong in recent runs for the Adam Chambers team. Last three runs have come at Warrnambool, bolting up two back before bumping into Paul’s Regret last start, who of course won last Saturday at Flemington. Has the early toe to land on speed and prove hard to run down.

A must include for the Quaddie is 4 Black Opal (Bet Now: $7.00) for John Moloney. He comes through the Esta La Roca 955m from a fortnight ago and just forget he went around. Was wide no cover for the trip from the wide gate and that early burn just told late. Draws soft this time around and gets a significant jockey upgrade.

The one on the up here is clearly 9 Wellsford (Bet Now: $4.20) and the 3000m should be no issue for him. Ran in a 2600m maiden at Cranbourne last time out where he looked a good thing on paper and duly saluted under Jack Martin, who remains on for this race. He’ll stay all day and is on an upward spiral compared to most here.

Think Mick Kent has found a lovely race for his progressive stayer 3 Pissaro (Bet Now: $4.00). To me he looks like a horse that will just keep batting away all day and the 3000m set up looks ideal. Toughed it out best to win over 2500m at the Valley under a lovely ride from Williams. This race is on the thin side and reckon he’s got upside despite being a six year old at start 43.

2 Alienated (Bet Now: $11.00) is a beauty for Cliff Murray and his track/distance stats do read quite well. He comes through the Jericho Cup where he did a good job in defeat after doing plenty of work in the run when fourth to Count Zero. Saves his best for the MV 3000m and gets Michael Poy to steer, who is riding very well at the moment.

Pretty keen here on 12 Sayumi (Bet Now: $2.80). Took her a little while to break the maiden tag, but the arrogance of her first up maiden win here was very impressive. The margin was narrow, but she won with plenty in reserve and relative to the meeting, her time was sharp. If she can naturally improve off that, think she’s clearly the one to beat.

11 Fixated (Bet Now: $3.40) looks the only real threat IMO. He was an enigma once upon a time but is putting it together now with a couple of wins on the bounce, the latest coming under the lights at the Valley where he was on speed and given a peach steer in front by Williams. Tricky draw, but if he can cross, he’ll be dangerous.

7 Shezawitness (Bet Now: $6.50) is third pick, but a distant third pick. Resumed in what looked a really winnable race for her at Warrnambool, but I thought she was most disappointing and really failed to fire a shot behind Uptown Lola. Better than that and I think back on firmer footing helps. Her best is good enough but rather see her do it first.

I’ve been hot on 5 Knowles (Bet Now: $7.50) winning a race for a few runs now. I’ll butter up again with her. She was wide and mostly without cover at Cranbourne last time out. Despite that, she kept finding the line and was good in defeat when third to Power Boom. She’s a mare who can unleash a powerful burst when cuddled and this set up looks perfect.

7 Quesadilla (Bet Now: $3.80) has looked city class for a little while and she gets a great chance to confirm that here. Resumed at Mornington where she was backed late and the market got it right. She spanked them and was far too good under Alex Bryan. Daniel Moor takes over, should land near the speed and prove hard to beat.

6 Power Boom (Bet Now: $9.00) is a talented mare for Glenn Thornton that won that race mentioned above and she was impressive. Sat back, wide with cover, before peeling wider and she really attacked the line hard late to get up and win. Has run well at the Valley and with upside to come, think she has to be respected.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 3 Real Feeling

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 12 Sayumi

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 5 Knowles

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 2, 4, 10, 12

Leg Two: 2, 3, 5, 9, 11

Leg Three: 11, 12

Leg Four: 5, 6, 7, 8

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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