17/9/2016 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Naturalism Stakes day

A bumper ten race card has been set down for Caulfield this Saturday, with the highlight being the Naturalism Stakes (2000m), with the winner getting a free ticket into the Caulfield Cup. The weather is overcast, the track is soft (6) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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Race One (12:00) : November Relaunch @ Glasshouse Handicap (78) 1200m:

Back Me: If he brings his best, then I think 15 Chase The Horizon (Bet Now: $5.50) is a really good bet here. He ran in a similar race here three weeks back and just had no luck at all behind Lord Barrington, being tardy to begin with and not really getting his chance. Looked sharp in a Sandown jump out and if he brings his best here, I think he just wins.
Big Danger: 13 Saint Valorem (Bet Now: $4.80) ran at Geelong last time out in what looked a pretty hot benchmark race and aided by a lovely ride from Brian Higgins, he presented at the right time and sprinted sharply for a good win. Last time he was at Caulfield he was a length off a handy one in Nudierudie.
Roughie: 14 Benchi Pegasus (Bet Now: $26.00) isn’t one of my horses, but this is the sort of race where he could fire. He sat wide throughout last start at Sandown and worked home okay late behind Tapestry Vision. He draws to sit three wide with cover and if that eventuates, he can figure for sure at a price.

Race Two (12:30) : Telstra Phoneworlds Supports The Alfred Foundation Plate 1100m:

Back Me: Going to give 4 Blue Tycoon (Bet Now: $6.50) another chance here. He resumed here in the McNeil where he sat on speed and faded late behind Defcon, but I think with this horse, leading isn’t his go. He is better when he has something to chase, and if that eventuates here, based on what I saw at the jump outs prior, he’ll take some beating.
Big Danger: 8 Invincible Joy (Bet Now: $16.00) looked very sharp at the jump outs here prior to resuming on the Geelong Synthetic where he won and ran time before taking on the older horses and was far from disgraced behind a handy one in Tuscany Hero. Back on his home track and hard fit. Major threat.
Roughie: 1 Dalradian (Bet Now: $15.00) was an alarming drifter in betting when resuming at Sandown on August 31 where he got back in the run and closed off okay late in the piece behind Barthelona. Gets a slight weight pull here but does draw much better and Rawiller is back on, and he rides the horse well.

Race Three (13:05) : PFD Food Services Supports Lasallian Foundation Plate 1400m:

Back Me: 2 Serenely Discreet (Bet Now: $6.00) looked to trial very well prior to resuming on the Parks track a fortnight back where she had a nice run near the speed and got the split late to dash through and win, beating home Arrow Lane, who came out and won seven days later, so the form, though inferior, has held up. Stable doesn’t bring them over for a holiday. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: 1 Najmaat (Bet Now: $6.00) is a big improver I think. She ran down the straight last Saturday at Flemington and was okay without setting the world on fire behind Kentucky Miss, who has really good form. Third up now, so she should be ready fitness wise, she draws well and strikes a winnable race
Roughie: 6 Clockwork Orange (Bet Now: $8.50) is a regally bred filly who is starting to put it together now, winning her last two, albeit on Synthetic tracks at Pakenham and Geelong, but on both occasions she beat olders and that isn’t easy to do so early in the new season so she gets a tick there for me and the run prior to those wins came in a Stakes race in SA behind Viddora and Ocean Embers, a race which has turned out to be hot from a form reference.

Race Four (13:40) : MRC Foundation Handicap (90) 1400m:

Back Me: 2 Miss Gunpowder (Bet Now: $5.50) was heavily supported when resuming on the Parks track three weeks ago but was given an awful ride from the apprentice and she just couldn’t finish off after bungling the start and being hunted forward to sit wide no cover. The winner of that race has won again, so the form has held up, but this mare is better than that grade, and this grade too, if she runs to her best.
Big Danger: 4 Antelucan (Bet Now: $8.00) was well backed when resuming over this track/distance three weeks ago and the money was right to an extent. She ran well but gave away an impossible start behind Vibrant Rouge, who is hard fit and in form. Antelucan has a really good second up record and if she can sit closer, she is a live threat.
Roughie: 5 Clemency (Bet Now: $7.50) only had a two run winter prep but won them both in gritty and determined fashion. Looked okay in a trial at Pakenham and also last Tuesday in a Sandown jump out. She has a really good fresh record and should take some beating.

Race Five (14:15) : Ladbrokes Supports National Jockeys Trust Plate 1600m:

Back Me: If you backed 7 Rocketeer (Bet Now: $5.50) a fortnight back at the Valley…nobody would begrudge you if you’re still having nightmares. Should have won by a space but got too far back in the run and then was hopelessly bailed away at a crucial stage. Home track now and up to the mile will be perfect. Stablemate Tarzino won this race last year en route to the Derby…I think this bloke will go close to emulating that.
Big Danger: 6 Odeon (Bet Now: $12.00) ran some really good races at Flemington during the middle part of Winter before going to a maiden at Geelong where he was ridden on speed and won by a space with a touch of quality and arrogance. Needed to get the maiden win out of the way and he did it emphatically. He can go right on with it.
Roughie: 1 Cobbmore (Bet Now: $19.00) was heavily backed to win a fortnight back at Geelong and despite being a fair way off them on the turn, he produced a brilliant finishing burst to get the job done and prove he is up to this level, perhaps more. Really good test here given he is taking on some quality animals, but there is a lot to like about him.

Race Six (14:55) : Ladbrokes Odds Boost Stakes 1200m:

Back Me: 4 Secret Agenda (Bet Now: $3.20) for me here in a really good race. She might not have won during the Autumn but she ran some solid races in high quality events. Jump outs have been very good to the eye and though she’ll improve off this, I think her brilliance could well be enough.
Big Danger: 2 Miss Promiscuity (Bet Now: $3.80) looks the well weighted runner here given she is rated 102 yet is only 2kg over the minimum. She resumed over 1100m here where she sat on speed and fought on well behind Redzel. Back to her own sex now, Dunn steers…ticks plenty of boxes for me.
Roughie: 3 Vibrant Rouge (Bet Now: $14.00) deserves a crack at more blacktype after racing so consistently during the Winter, which saw her finally break her drought under Mick Kent three weeks ago over 1400m here, aided by a lovely steer from Beau Mertens. Nolen jumps on now from a good gate, she’s hard fit, in form…ticks enough boxes.

Race Seven (15:35) : Fight Cancer Foundation Testa Rossa Stakes 1200m:

Back Me: 9 The Virginian (Bet Now: $4.60) comes to Melbourne with a big repuation. His first prep saw him win twice, run sixth in a Gold Coast Guineas and then ending the prep with a third to Under The Louvre and Black Heart Bart in the Stradbroke, and both of those horses have come back in fab order. Trial win was sharp, before he looked outstanding in a trial behind Buffering last Wednesday, savaging the line under a hold. He can handle these.
Big Danger: 1 Hucklebuck (Bet Now: $7.50) is the clear class runner here who resumes for Phillip Stokes. He took on the best of the best in the Autumn, with the highlight being a placing in the CF Orr behind Suavito. Looked outstanding in a recent trial back at Morphettville and appears forward to run a very good race fresh.
Roughie: 8 Taddei Tondo (Bet Now: $18.00) is going much better than what his form reads. Caught wide no cover here two back behind Voodoo Lad in the Regal Roller before having no luck at all behind that horse at the Valley when hopelessly bailed away in a pocket. If he gets normal luck here, he’ll run a race at odds.

Race Eight (16:15) : Bendigo Bank East Malvern MRC Foundation Cup 2000m:

Back Me: 16 Second Bullet (Bet Now: $12.00) resumed in the Heatherlie (1700m) here and was one of only a handful to make significant ground on the leader and eventual winner Great Esteem. Jump out prior was very good and he will only improve with the fitness and the step up to 2000m. Rates highly.
Big Danger: 15 Gabella (Bet Now: $11.00) is on the back up after racing last Saturday over 1700m at Flemington where she was tardy to begin with yet worked home with real purpose to run fourth to the in form Royal Rapture. Both her runs this time in have been super, which followed an impressive jump out. This is a rise in depth, but she looks very likeable up to 2000m.
Roughie: 10 Berisha (Bet Now: $41.00) is already in the Caulfield Cup after winning the Mornington Cup in the Autumn but don’t discount him here. He ran in the Heatherlie behind Great Esteem here last time out and worked home okay late. He has since trialled last week at Cranbourne and gee I thought he went well. Certainly capable of knocking this field off.

Race Nine (16:55) : Sheen Group Handicap 1400m:

Back Me: There was plenty to like about the first up win of 2 He’s Our Rokkii (Bet Now: $2.80) at this track/distance three weeks back. He sat a touch worse than midfield in the run in a race with not much tempo but he produced a sharp turn of foot to nail Prince Of Brooklyn, who failed with excuses last week. He has enormous upside and looks a potential Group l horse. With that being the case, he should take a stack of beating.
Big Danger: 9 Jungle Edge (Bet Now: $8.00) has to be respected here. He was well backed to win that race mentioned above where he attempted to lead all the way and did give a strong kick but the class out wide got the better of him late. He’ll roll forward once again and does meet He’s Our Rokki 1kg better at the weights.
Roughie: 1 Iggimacool (Bet Now: $12.00) resumed off a freshen up in the Fruit Supply at the Valley where like most near the fence, she was luckless in the straight behind the seemingly impressive winner Voodoo Lad. She looks a mare who will head towards something like the Matriarch on Stakes Day, so whatever she does here she will improve on, but she has class and quality.

Race Ten (17:25) : Mortimer Petroleum Gold Nugget 1700m:

Back Me: Waddle your finger and hope for the best here. I’ve landed with 4 Tarquin (Bet Now: $7.50) but with no confidence. He resumed in the He’s Our Rokkii race mentioned above where I think the slow tempo was really against him and he lacked the turn of foot. Up to 1700m suits, should be a genuine tempo here, stable is flying and he has upside.
Big Danger: Was really good to see 1 Foundry (Bet Now: $10.00) resume and put together a very good performance at the Valley when third to Mihany at the Valley where he sat near the speed and fought on. He has the potential to beat these for sure, just needs luck from the tricky gate.
Roughie: The very interesting runner is 11 Count Of Limonade (Bet Now: $67.00). He hasn’t raced for 12 months since finishing down the track in the 2015 edition of this race behind Freshwater Storm. Been given a very good break, and he is in the Weir stable. Can he weave the magic wand? Really good form on wet tracks, draws well for a form rider…big watch.

Quaddie Tips (Races Seven Through To Ten):

Leg One: 9

Leg Two: 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16

Leg Three: 1, 2, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 4, 5, 11, 18

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