Racing returns to Randwick this Saturday for a bumper program, highlighted by the feature event of the Sydney Summer, the Group ll Villiers Stakes (1600m). The weather is fine, the track is heavy (9) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
[crownbetoffer]
Race One (12:40) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2 1200m
Back Me: See no reason to jump off 15 Isla Tristana (Bet Now: $2.90). The record of three year old fillies in terms of runners/winners isn’t great, but she bucked that trend with a brilliant win in an 1100m Rosehill Highway two weeks back, aided by an absolute peach from Tim Clark who saved ground near the inside and grabbed Absolute Ripper near the line. Draws to be out of trouble, which will suit her better, and she’ll be strong late.
Big Danger: 14 Don’t Doubt Her (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Scone based filly trained by Rod Northam who was due to race in a blacktype event last week at Eagle Farm but was scratched and instead runs here. She finished down the track in a Rosehill Highway behind Delightful Feeling before going back to her home track where she ran a game second to Bakslap, who failed due to the track conditions yesterday. This filly is bred to swim and has to be respected.
Long Shot: 4 Deny Allcharges (Bet Now: $15.00) resumed in that Isla Tristana race and despite starting long odds, I thought the son of Charge Forward was very good when running fourth, beaten 2.5L. Go back to last prep and he had some pretty solid form against quality horses, and after that fresh effort, I think he is right in this race up to his ears at a price.
Race Two (13:20) : Ainsworth Game Technology Handicap (85) 1600m
Back Me: 5 Redoutable Heart (Bet Now: $3.30) ran over 1500m at Rosehill two weeks ago where he was given a 12/10 from Blake Shinn where he was just off the speed and tracking up the right horses before easing off those at the top of the straight and though he took his time to wear down Sir Plush, he did late and drew clear. He’ll love the step up to the mile here at Randwick and being third up, he should just about be ready fitness wise.
Big Danger: 10 Unbiased (Bet Now: $5.50) is on the seven day turnaround after racing over 1500m last Saturday at Rosehill where I thought he was really poor behind Hogamany, but he was back in the ruck in a race where the front few dominated and nothing out the back could make ground on those near the speed. Forgive him for that, and on his previous outing, he is right in this.
Long Shot: The cushion in the track should really suit 13 More Than Fabulous (Bet Now: $5.00), who ran behind Redoutable Heart in that race mentioned above and his effort was very good considering he was back in the ruck and it was a race dominated by those near the speed. Meets that horse 3kg better off here and has upside, plus loves a track with give in it.
Race Three (13:55) : Inglis Nursery 1000m
Back Me: 8 She Will Reign (Bet Now: $1.95) is a well bred filly or Darby Racing and Gary Portelli who created a big impression in her debut win last Saturday over 1000m at Kembla Grange, running absolutely low flying time and clocking 32 flat for her final 600m, which really is saved for top class horses. That is just something you have to take note of and if she brings that here, she probably wins.
Big Danger: 1 Vinland (Bet Now: $4.80) is the big watch here. I was keen on him when he debuted in the Merson Cooper (1000m) on Zipping Classic Day but he just got too far back in the run but made up a stack of ground late to run fifth to Arctic Angel. Freshened up and trialled brilliantly at Rosehill last week, and ran slashing time. Just needs to overcome the gate to be right in the mix.
Long Shot: 6 Serena Bay (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Sebring filly that has done everything right in her career to date, winning two from two, the latest coming three weeks back at Rosehill in the Golden Gift where she led at a strong tempo and fended them off late for a narrow but decisive victory. Trained on the track and she’ll be out of trouble on speed. Major threat.
Race Four (14:30) : Segenhoe Cup (85) 1200m
Back Me: 8 Upscale (Bet Now: $5.50) is a mare in really good touch at the moment for the in form Kris Lees yard. She has won her past two starts, both of which have come over the 1100m at Rosehill. The latest of those came off a freshen up three weeks back where she was pretty much gifted the race. She got to the front and Avdulla was allowed to stack them up, and at the Rosehill 1100m on a firm track, that’s game over. More speed here, but she showed the start prior she can take a sit and still respond positively.
Big Danger: 15 Kinshachi (Bet Now: $3.70) comes here off the back of a strong first up win a tick under three weeks back at Canterbury when ridden a treat by Avdulla, getting the 1/1 before angling clear and though taking time to wind up, she eventually wore down the leader Navua Mist. Has enormous upside, Melham steers and she gets through the heavy going.
Long Shot: 11 Queen Of Wands (Bet Now: $34.00) was somewhat of an iron filly during the Autumn, which saw her run in several stakes races, and to an extent she ran well, but she raced liked a tired horse towards the end of the Brisbane Winter. She has had two trials leading up to her return to the track, but both trials have been run in fast time, so she’s had a good grounding for her first up assignment.
Race Five (15:05) : Fugen Christmas Cup 2400m
Back Me: The way this track is, I have to put 3 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $4.20) on top. Not many missed his run last time out over 2000m at Rosehill where he got a long way back in the run and finished off with real purpose to run fourth to Malice, beaten two lengths. On race morning in a radio interview, trainer Joe Pride did say that the horse is flying, but he just needs rain. He gets it here, and his 2400m/Randwick 2400m/wet track stats are outstanding.
Big Danger: 7 Soviet Courage (Bet Now: $4.80) had been struggling for form this time in until Schofield jumped back on the horse and he kept up his unbeaten run on the Chris Waller trained galloper in tact with a strong win, aided by a hot speed in front of him. Schofield remains on, drops big time in weight and does race well at Randwick. Ticks alot of boxes.
Long Shot: 12 Spanish Stride (Bet Now: $26.00) rises big time in depth, but he has upside and scope to be a knockout chance. If you backed him last time out over 2100m at Hawkesbury, you’d be disgusted with his effort given he started odds on and plodded away for third to Cambage, but he was back in the small field and they absolutely crawled in front, so he really had no chance. Yet to place in five runs at Randwick, but he has contested some strong races and wasn’t beaten far. Great chance at odds IMO.
Race Six (15:40) : Inglis Sprint 1100m
Back Me: 7 Manuel (Bet Now: $4.80) should have won when resuming down the straight on Cup Day but just had no luck at a vital stage when fourth to Speedeor, who has won again since. Tony McEvoy then sent the colt for an easy kill a Geelong and easy kill is an understatement, winning by ten lengths. He beat nothing and the form around that race has been poor since, but he has always shown class/quality and the time was 1.5 seconds quicker than the other 1100m race that meeting. Trial since has been outstanding and he is a potential Stakes class horse.
Big Danger: 1 Flash Fibian (Bet Now: $13.00) was far from disgraced in his first three runs this time in, all in Stakes grade, before dropping back to benchmark grade and aided by a lovely steer from Tye Angland, the Kembla Grange galloper burst through a gap and held on strongly to win. Form out of that race has been very good via Gibraltar Girl, Lubiton and Baltic Whisper. Given his record, the set weights scenario really suits him and he’ll be strong at the end of 1100m.
Long Shot: 6 Magnetar (Bet Now: $15.00) is the hard fit/in form galloper so I will give him a chance here in a tricky race. He ran over the short course at Sandown last time out where he sat outside the speed in a slowly run event and chased hard the entire way but couldn’t reel in impressive winner Magnatti. There is nothing special about him but he gives his all and rates highly.
Race Seven (16:20) : Inglis Villiers Stakes 1600m
Back Me: Going with a real roughie here in 14 Sense Of Occasion (Bet Now: $31.00). This gelding is quite talented for Kris Lees and really came of age during the spring, highlighted by a win in the Premiers Cup (1900m) and strong efforts in the Newcastle Cup and Metropolitan. Loved his trial win last week at Gosford where he was pushed somewhat but extended beautifully. He draws a soft gate, Melham rides, he’s a two time first up winner and the Randwick will suit him perfectly.
Big Danger: 11 Hazzabeel (Bet Now: $10.00) produced a lethal finishing burst to win the Kilmore Cup (1600m) two back at good odds before going to the Festival a fortnight back over 1500m at Rosehill where he didn’t appear to quite handle the circuit and racing between runners but once he balanced up, he finished hard to just miss out on picking up Sweet Redemption. Back up to the mile will really suit and he does have upside left.
Long Shot: 10 Big Memory (Bet Now: $18.00) is a classy animal that resumes here for Tony McEvoy after a pretty solid Spring, where he placed in two of his three starts, the latest being a close up second in the Herbert Power. Though pushed out, I didn’t mind his trial effort at Rosehill last week behind Fabrizio and he has a fab record when produced fresh at the mile.
Race Eight (17:00) : Green Options Racing Razor Sharp Handicap 1200m
Back Me: 11 His Majesty (Bet Now: $2.70) ran over 1400m here in early October and I thought his effort in defeat was enormous. He sat off a hot speed before Avdulla eased him out and cuddled and cuddled and cuddled. Looked the winner but then came Group l winner Thunder Fantasy to knock him. I think we now know he is a sprinter, the break between runs, hot speed here and the trials…yeah he looks a great chance.
Big Danger: 8 Inz’n’Out (Bet Now: $7.50) isn’t one of my horses. Don’t think he is anyone’s really given how badly he has let punters down in the past, but the scratchings and wet track brings him into the mix. He comes through the Starlight where he sat back in the run and finished off okay late in the piece when fourth to Kuro. Meets that horse 2kg better off here and remains on the minimum. He’ll prove hard to hold out for sure.
Long Shot: If there is a horse to watch on a bog track, it could be 7 Brook Road (Bet Now: $9.00), who comes through the Starlight where she had a nice sit just off the speed and just plugged away behind Kuro. She is lethal on a track with give in it, as well as at 1200m. She can give this a shake if she brings her best.
Race Nine (17:40) : JLT & QBE Supporting Surf Lifesaving Handicap (78) 1400m
Back Me: 13 Zaunkonig (Bet Now: $4.60) took on a pretty solid field when resuming at Beaumont-Newcastle two weeks ago and aided by a lovely on speed steer from Travis Wolfgram, the son of Northern Meteor kicked on very strongly when challenged to score a narrow but impressive victory. Got some really solid form behind him from the Winter and he only has upside leading into this.
Big Danger: 12 Snitzel Knight (Bet Now: $7.50) was ridden a treat by apprentice Blake McDougall to get the job done a tick over two weeks back at Gosford where he sat back in the run before peeling wide and finishing his race off strongly to get the job done. Got some really solid wet track form in the city from last prep, he has upside and looks to be drawn the right part of the track.
Long Shot: 8 Quick Defence (Bet Now: $9.50) is a handy galloper trained by Chris Waller who ran over 1500m at Rosehill a fortnight back where I thought he was solid against the tempo behind stablemate Redoutable Heart in a race where the front few really dominated, so for his chances, where he was near last in the run, he had no hope. Should be a more genuine tempo here and I think the bigger track will only be ideal.
BEST BET: Race Six Number 7 Manuel
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 8 She Will Reign
VALUE: Race Seven Number 14 Sense Of Occasion
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 7
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 7, 10, 11, 14, 18
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 11, 13
Leg Four: 11, 12, 13, 15
$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful
We recommend BET365 for all Quadrella punters. Sign-up at Bet365.com.au via this link for a $200 BONUS!
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
| Bookmaker | Why Bet | Sign Up | Full Review |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Back Yourself with Ladbrokes! | Join | Review |
|
Back a Winner with Neds! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to swiftbet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
|
Sign up to Unibet and start betting in minutes! | Join | Review |
