The Group l races in Sydney are done and dusted for 2015, but there is still quality racing to be run and won at Randwick this Saturday, with several blacktype races. The weather is fine, the track is good (3) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (13:00) : City Tattersall’s Club Victory Vein Plate 1000m:
Back Me: Going with the Godolphin youngster Morton’s Fork (Best Odds: $4.80). He trialled here on September 21 and looked pretty sharp in winning that respective barrier trial, and his last 600m was quick. Draws well and the stable have had an electric start to the season with their youngsters.
Roughie: Isthmian (Best Odds: $5.00) is on debut for Kris Lees and she should be respected after dominating her rivals in her lone public appearance, coming at Wyong. Stable have to be always respected and they are having a decent run of late with their first starters.
Big Danger: Miss Amajardan (Best Odds: $10.00) is a Port Macquarie trained filly who showed great early speed to lead all the way to win the Romantic Dream at Armidale, spanking her rivals and running very slick time for the distance. The time was good compared to other times that afternoon and Jenny Graham doesn’t send them to town for a holiday.
Race Two (13:40) : City Tattersalls Club Spring Handicap (72) 1600m:
Back Me: Montauk (Best Odds: $3.80) is on the quick back up after racing here last Saturday where he got no luck at all at vital stages when a close up fifth to Cana. Step up to the mile is ideal and we know the remarkable strike rate Chris Waller has when he quickly backs up his runners.
Big Danger: The brilliance of Bowman got Encosta Line (Best Odds: $6.00) home over 1550m at Canterbury last Wednesday. He was touted as a Group l horse in the Winter, so the stable does have an opinion of him. Now that he has won a race, he could go right on with it.
Roughie: Schopenhauer (Best Odds: $10.00) was having just his second run for Craig Ritchie when working to the line pretty well late when fourth to impressive winner Ambience. Interesting to see he is still nominated for the Derby, so if he was to head that way, he needs to win this race, and on his last start, he could very well do that.
Race Three (14:15) : Bartier Perry Lawyers Handicap (92) 1600m:
Back Me: Good Project (Best Odds: $2.80) could not have been ridden any better by Avdulla last Saturday in the race mentioned above, but he couldn’t quite get the job done and had to settle for a tiring third. He gets some weight relief now, and the likely wet track will suit him perfectly.
Big Danger: Testashadow (Best Odds: $9.00) was excellent in defeat last Saturday in that race mentioned above when working home well from the back to finish fifth, beaten just a tick under three lengths. The quick back should suit, gate one and now is on the minimum.
Roughie: Orion Love (Best Odds: $11.00) was excellent in the Angst last Saturday when making up solid ground late to run fourth to Casino Dancer. That was her first run in over a month and she was very good IMO. Did run well second up earlier on in the prep, she likes give in the ground and only rises half a kilo despite dropping in class.
Race Four (14:55) : TAB Highway Handicap (Class 2) 1200m:
Back Me: I like the incentive and idea of this race, but it needs ironing out, but that is for another day. We need to find the winner, and I think that will come thanks to the Greg Bennett trained Invienna (Best Odds: $4.80). She scored a dominant win first up at Scone before going to Gosford, where she was an alarming drifter in betting and that proved correct when she ran a close second to Grand Cross. Bennett is a genius when it comes to placing horses, and this girl looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Onemoregypsy (Best Odds: $17.00) resumes here for Kurt Goldman after a somewhat frustrating Autumn prep, which ended with a close second to Le Cavalier during the Wagga Cup Carnival. Recent trial here behind Invitations was very good and she is another that looks well placed.
Roughie: Eccitare (Best Odds: $21.00) scored a dominant win first up at Mudgee before stepping up a fair bit in grade at Muswellbrook and worked home well late when running fourth to Mad About You. Randwick 1200m should suit and he is bred to handle a potential wet track, plus he gets right down in the weights after the claim for Regan Bayliss.
Race Five (15:30) : City Tattersalls Club Handicap (83) 1400m:
Back Me: Going to take a chance with the Paul Messara trained Tarangower (Best Odds: $6.50). He hasn’t raced since Anzac Day over the mile here when finishing down the track behind Darci’s Magic. He has had two trials on his home track at Scone and has looked outstanding. He is a first up winner and has run well on the track previously.
Big Danger: Moral Victory (Best Odds: $5.50) was back in the care of Tim Martin and he produced a ripper when resuming at Rosehill, running third to Sure And Fast. The trial prior was just fair, so I am not sure what to make of his run looking back, but on face value it was strong. He has placed in two second up runs, and loves racing at 1400m.
Roughie: Perfect Weapon (Best Odds: $26.00) also comes through that Sure And Fast race where he charged home from near last to run sixth despite being completely unwanted in betting. He hasn’t won for a long time, but this race isn’t overly strong, and if the speed is on, he could charge late.
Race Six (16:05) : City Tattersalls Club Brian Crowley Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: I’m going for some value in the shape of Hellbent (Best Odds: $2.25). He was awesome when resuming at Rosehill a couple of weeks back, sitting on speed throughout before kicking clear and winning with a fair bit of ease, and the time was the fastest of three 1200m races run that afternoon, including Sure And Fast, who is a live chance in the Lightning. He is very promising and has a stack of upside, plus he now drops 2.5kg in weight.
Big Danger: Flippant (Best Odds: $6.00) is a Stakes winner who resumes here for Team Snowden. She raced twice towards the end of the Autumn when winning at Scone before taking care of them at Doomben, and on both occasions she beat Harlem River, who smashed them after Doomben and ran well last weekend at Caulfield. Recent trial by Flippant was very good and she flies fresh.
Roughie: Alart (Best Odds: $15.00) is a ripper for Pat Farrell who comes off a last start win at Stakes level when getting the job done narrowly in the Reginald Allen, beating home a beauty in Flamboyant Lass. Back to 1200m is perfect for her, she loves a wet track, rock hard fit and just tries her heart out.
Race Seven (16:45) : City Tattersall’s Club Lightning 1100m:
Back Me: Cracking race here. I’ll lean towards Craftiness (Best Odds: $3.10). He resumed in the Concorde here and stuck on very well when a close second to Shiraz before going to Caulfield and running 15 lengths quicker than normal speed early on and felt the pinch late when fifth to Sabatini. Third up now, so he should be ready fitness wise and this looks a very winnable race.
Big Danger: Sure And Fast (Best Odds: $9.00) was unwanted in betting when resuming at Rosehill, but the Provincial Championship winner produced a lovely turn of foot to show his class in winning impressively despite carrying 60kg. Tumbles down to 54kg now and is an absolute swimmer plus he was excellent in defeat second up last time in.
Roughie: The interesting runner here is the Country Championship winner Artlee (Best Odds: $12.00), who hasn’t raced since scoring a dominant win in that race here during the Championships. He is a ripper and he looked very good in a recent barrier trial at Scone. He will be better over slightly further, but he is well above average and has a lethal turn of foot.
Race Eight (17:25) : City Tattersall’s Club Cup 2400m:
Back Me: Looks a two horse race between The Offer (Best Odds: $6.50) and Beaten Up. With the likelihood of a wet track, I’ll lean towards The Offer. He has been outstanding in all three runs this time in, starting off with a dominant win in the Rowley Mile before a fifth to Beyond Thankful in the Wyong Cup and then repeated that identical result in the Newcastle Cup, where I thought he was a little unlucky. He is the class runner and he is a Group l winner at this track on a soft track.
Big Danger: Beaten Up (Best Odds: $2.60) was excellent in the Metropolitan when working home strongly to finish second to impressive winner Magic Hurricane. He is a bit of a suspect on wet ground, but he is one of the in form gallopers engaged here and he should take some beating.
Roughie: La Amistad (Best Odds: $15.00) could be an improver moving back to Sydney. Her three runs in Melbourne this time in haven’t been too bad, including last start in the Bart Cummings when working home okay late to finish ninth to fellow mare Let’s Make A Deal. She won this race last year and like her famous older sister, she loves a wet track.
Race Nine (18:00) : City Tattersalls Club Nivison 1200m:
Back Me: Going for the Queensland mare Miss Cover Girl (Best Odds: $8.00). Just forget she went around first up at Doomben when she got too far back when third to Architect, beaten five lengths. She won here during the Championships and she is unbeaten in two runs on wet tracks, with one of those wins being here. Hard to beat.
Big Danger: Sultry Feeling (Best Odds: $7.00) worked home very strongly last time out when a close up third to She’s Clean in the Tibbie, beaten just over a length. That mare ran well here last weekend, and Sultry Feeling did look sharp in a recent Warwick Farm trial. She has a booming finish on her and loves give in the ground.
Roughie: Kristy Lee (Best Odds: $16.00) resumes here off a freshen up. She last ran here in the Toy Show when sixth to stablemate Amicus, who then won a Group ll at Flemington. She has placed in five of seven first up runs and her recent trial here behind Swift Lady was really eye catching. Look for her to charge late, if the speed is on, which it should be.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 1 The Offer
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 6 Good Project
VALUE: Race Nine Number 5 Kristy Lee
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 2, 4, 5, 9, 10
Leg Two: 2, 4, 6, 11, 12
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 6
Leg Four: 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
$50 Investment = 6.94% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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