Racing returns to Ascot in Perth this Saturday, where it is Northerly Stakes Day. The weather is ovcercast, the track is good (3) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One: Myer Fashion Trophy 1000m:
Back Me: Trial form and race day form is inconclusive, so I can’t really provide a tip here.
Big Danger: Inconclusive.
Race Two: Crown Perth Trophy (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: Really interesting to see Lucky Street (Best Odds: $1.75) take on the older horses here first up. He was the best two year old Perth had to offer last season, highlighted by his brilliant win in the Karrakatta Plate. Two trials leading in for two wins, he looks ready and he strikes a winnable race fresh.
Big Danger: Liberty’s Gem (Best Odds: $3.40) is another talented youngster that returns to the track for his four year old year. He was last seen in the Belmont Guineas when sixth to Tradesman. He looked sharp in winning a 1000m trial at Belmont, and actually went quicker than Lucky Street so it wouldn’t surprise me if he beat the top tip.
Roughie: Dueton (Best Odds: $9.00) ran a cheeky race at odds last week over the 1000m at Belmont, running on well late to finish a close third to Madassa. Slightly harder here, but again draws to get the nice run on the back of the speed and he could repeat the dose from last Saturday.
Race Three: The Merrywell Handicap (60+) 1200m:
Back Me: Grant Williams holds the key here because either of his runners will be winning. The tougher one appears to be Joyful Hope (Best Odds: $3.70), so I’ll go her way. She ran over 1300m at Northam last start and led all the way for quite a dominant win, and the time was sharp. Back to 1200m looks ideal and she should get over to sit on pace without too much drama.
Big Danger: Silverstream (Best Odds: $1.75) is a classy mare that resumed over 1000m three weeks back and produced an outstanding turn of foot from last to win with ridiculous ease. The speed set up by her stablemate and top tip will suit her perfectly and Pike elects to ride her, which is a good lead.
Roughie: Feint Dancer (Best Odds: $41.00) resumed during the Kalgoorlie Carnival and was very impressive in winning a race there over 1100m, sitting off the pace and letting down strongly late. Second up last time in she ran over this track/distance and had no luck, so don’t be worried by her numerical figures second up from a spell. She is in this race as a knockout hope.
Race Four: Crown Metrapol Handicap 1500m:
Back Me: Very interested to see Kia Ora Koutou (Best Odds: $2.40) here. He is a star stayer who is my pick for the Victoria Derby after blitzing the older horses last start over 2200m. Back to 1500m against his own age, so I don’t know what to make of him here, whether this is a barrier trial for the Derby? If he is fit enough, he’ll beat them.
Big Danger: London Line (Best Odds: $6.00) ran second to Kia Ora Koutou over 1400m seven weeks back where he wasn’t suited by the slow tempo, but still found the line with purpose. The 42 day break is a slight worry and at 1500m, but he draws well and should get every chance.
Roughie: See Me Sizzle (Best Odds: $6.50) ran second to the top tip over the mile at Belmont, where he was slightly held up early on in the straight, which did cost him a slight margin but not victory. He actually meets the horse 0.5kg worse off, but will be suited back in trip compared to the top tip.
Race Five: Northerly Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: You’d be mad to tip against Black Heart Bart (Best Odds: $2.25). He was superb when resuming in the Birthday Stakes, sitting behind the speed before peeling and letting down hard to just cling on. Enormous upside with this horse and he is just so well suited at the weights. Should be winning once again.
Big Danger: Fuchsia Bandana (Best Odds: $3.80) was a touch unlucky not to have beaten the top tip in that race given he was behind the leader and got held up at stages in the straight. He just missed out in winning in what was a pleasing return. I just see more upside with the top tip, but nonetheless, this horse should run well again.
Roughie: Bass Strait (Best Odds: $26.00) resumes for Neville Parnahm after just a two run prep in the Winter, where he really failed to fire a shot. Recent Belmont trial behind Lucky Street was very encouraging, and we know on his day, he is a serious horse, so watch market moves.
Race Six: Crown Sports Bar Handicap (60+) 1800m:
Back Me: The Forgotten One (Best Odds: $2.60) is a progressive stayer for Adam Durrant who has won his past two starts in impressive fashion, the latest being over the mile at Belmont. Month between runs, but he is in the right stable and this race isn’t overly strong.
Big Danger: Planets Align (Best Odds: $4.40) was very good in his debut win at Northam over the mile. He sat outside the lead throughout before Pike gave him a squeeze and the horse responded quite well to win impressively. Harder here, but enormous upside and looks hard to beat.
Roughie: The drop in class should suit Daneclicked (Best Odds: $41.00), who ran fifth to rising star Kia Ora Koutou last start over 2200m at Belmont, beaten 6.5L. Much easier here and isn’t badly treated at the weights after the claim.
Race Seven: Crown Perth-Belgravia Stakes 1200m:
Back Me: Gee this is a hot, hot race. Jingtang (Best Odds: $17.00) really caught my eye on debut at Northam. The son of Starcraft sat outside the leader before quickly putting it away and then showing a lovely turn of foot to win quite impressively. He should get the gun run from gate one and will love a fast run 1200m based on his breeding.
Big Danger: Blackwood (Best Odds: $5.00) had four runs during the Autumn/Winter and looked like a star in winning all four, all by a space. Wasn’t asked to do much in a recent barrier trial behind Liberty’s Gem, and though drawn wide, he is very classy and should take some beating.
Roughie: The horse that will be suited by a hot tempo is Dark Love (Best Odds: $31.00). She was a real eye catcher on debut behind Bombs Away before racing quite greenly behind Three Votes, beaten seven lengths. Fast tempo will suit this daughter of More Than Ready and she will relish the rise to 1200m.
Race Eight: Crown Bet Handicap (72+) 1400m:
Back Me: Battle Hero (Best Odds: $5.00) has been excellent in two runs back from a break, resulting in two wins, the latest coming over this distance at Belmont when on speed throughout and fighting on well for the win. Drawn wide, but promising apprentice on and he looks the one to beat.
Big Danger: Hazzabeel (Best Odds: $2.30) resumed in the Birthday Stakes and was given a plain ride from Paul Harvey when sitting wide no cover for the entire trip when fifth to Black Heart Bart. Lucy Warwick is on and she rides the horse well. This horse has the potential to be a Railway contender, so he needs to win here to be considered a prospect in that race.
Roughie: Highly Secret (Best Odds: $12.00) is a talented mare that resumes for Grant Williams and is a stablemate of the top tip. Best form is over further, but her recent Lark Hill trial was pretty good, Pike is on and she can produce a run fresh.
BEST BET: Race Five Number 1 Black Heart Bart
NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 1 Battle Hero
VALUE: Race Seven Number 13 Dark Love
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 10, 11, 13
Leg Three: 3, 5, 6, 7, 11, 12, 13
Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13
$50 Investment= 14.88% of the dividend if successful.
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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