17/4/2021 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, The Showdown day

A strong nine race card has been assembled for Caulfield on Saturday where it is VOBIS Day, headlined by The Showdown (1200m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

The Showdown 🏆: View the Field and Odds for The Showdown

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9 Johandough (Bet Now: $12.00 TOP ODDS) has done nothing wrong this time in, winning 2/2. She’s very one paced so I dare say the only way she can win is if she makes this a truly run 2000m. Bit of an ordinary ride from Williams last time out, but thankfully the horse got him out of trouble and she had enough in the locker. She’ll land on speed and give a sight.

2 Mahamedeis (Bet Now: $1.90 TOP ODDS) looks back on track. Jury was out after a plain Albury Cup effort, but he bounced back to positive form with an eye catching finale at this track/distance in the Easter Cup behind Hang Man. Just has to hold that form and I think he’ll take a power of beating here.

1 Moonlight Maid (Bet Now: $9.50 TOP ODDS) is three weeks between runs for Mitch Freedman since contesting the Golden Mile at Bendigo. She had her chance and to the eye, she was plain, but I didn’t she was that bad in defeat behind Ironclad. Perhaps she is looking for more ground? But she’s running out of chances.

Second up syndrome is the only real knock with 8 Spring Choice (Bet Now: $4.80 TOP ODDS). He resumed at Sandown a few weeks ago, his first run since June 2019, and he worked to the line strongly from off the speed when a close up second to Shandy. His form back then, gee it reads well for a race like this. Just depends if he’ll come on from that first up run or does he need a flat one for a third up bounce back.

11 Vongole (Bet Now: $7.50 TOP ODDS) is racing well at the moment without winning. If you were on his back two weeks back here, apologies for bringing up the nightmare. He was lucky to stay on his feet and not fall. Wide gate should ensure he gets clear air from the outset and with better luck, he can take this out.

Blackbooking horses out of poor rating races is fraught with danger, but I do feel that 18 Kent Street (Bet Now: $14.00 TOP ODDS) is racing well for Peter Chow. Whether this is a final run to get ready for Warrnambool I’m not sure but he is bursting to win one. Last run was at this track/distance and no doubt with clear air he wins. He’ll take beating with clear air.

I was convinced that 3 Beau Rossa (Bet Now: $1.80 TOP ODDS) was just a sprinter, but he made a fool of me at Sandown over 1300m last start. He made a mess of them, winning by seven, and it could have been double digits if Jamie Kah got stuck in. Continued a great strike rate Will Clarken has in Melbourne and I dare say that trend only continues here.

13 Ripper Rita (Bet Now: $8.50 TOP ODDS) is racing well for Greg Eurell. Heading towards the SA Oaks maybe? Both runs back from a break have been quite strong. Resumed with a dominant maiden win at Pakenham before racing at this track/distance in what was a real sit/sprint, so he wasn’t suited, but liked the way she closed off. Is she wanting further? I’d say yes, but think she’s going well enough to overcome it.

7 French Moon (Bet Now: $34.00 TOP ODDS) is a Symon Wilde trained three year old that comes straight to town after winning on debut over the mile on Stawell Cup Day. Hard to get a guide on the win because he was on speed/fence, which was dynamite for the meeting, but to counter that, he did a power of work early and was entitled to knock up, so there was merit to the win. Keen to see how he goes.

I think this is the perfect set up for 6 Galaxy Raider (Bet Now: $6.00 TOP ODDS). Small field, can be within range on the turn and launch late. Enormous in defeat fresh in the Victoria Handicap, charging home from the back behind Mr Quickie. He can settle much closer in the run and provided there is improvement, which you would assume is there, he’ll take beating.

I like 2 So Si Bon (Bet Now: $3.70 TOP ODDS) back to this level. Probably just found out a touch last start in the Doncaster Prelude, but I will say the track pattern was probably not in his corner, so I’m forgiving of that effort. Two time winner at this track/distance and was a sharp winner of this race last year.

3 Iconoclasm (Bet Now: $10.00 TOP ODDS) has a good record at the mile, especially in these kind of races. I thought he was far from disgraced in the Victoria Handicap two weeks ago and was good late without threatening behind Mr Quickie. Now getting to his suitable distance, he can run a much improved race.

10 Vowmaster (Bet Now: $6.00) hasn’t really set the world on sire since being electric in his opening two career outings, but I think he’s starting to get back to positive form. Such a negative ride from Walker here two weeks ago and left him with far too much to do when closing off late without threatening. I think he’s back on track and can take this out.

1 Shelby Cobra (Bet Now: $7.50) is a quality animal that resumes for Michael Moroney. He kicked off his career in the Spring and came a long way in a short time, highlighted by an electric win at Flemington during Cup Week. Jumpouts leading in have been strong…1100m is short of his best, but he has class.

8 Forever Free (Bet Now: $21.00) is an honest filly for the Ellerton/Zahra camp that will give a sight. That was the case here a fortnight ago but unfortunately from the wide gate, she was sitting deep in the run and felt the pinch late. Think if she can land on speed she’ll run a cheeky race. Last bit will test.

1 Finance Tycoon (Bet Now: $4.20) comes here with fresh legs and I think is the one to beat on overall form. He ran a beauty in the Blue Diamond I thought when fourth to Artorius and we know that form was a big tick during the Sydney Carnival. Fast run 1200m is no drama and he has the runs on the board.

If this was 1000m or 1100m, I’d declare 2 Starry Legend (Bet Now: $4.00). My only niggle with him is running a strong 1200m, but he’s got the right racing pattern to give himself every chance by sitting on speed, which is what he has done in both career outings and each time he has been dominant. If he can see out the 1200m, he’s the likely winner. Just prefer to watch than back.

5 Rusheen (Bet Now: $61.00) is three weeks between runs for Tony Noonan since racing in the Gold Rush at Bendigo. He was never really a winning threat to Starry Legend but I liked the way he finished his race off. That was 1000m and he does look as if the 1200m will be okay for him. Knockout chance.

10 Alfa Oro (Bet Now: $4.20) can be quite dangerous here. Resumed in the Sword Of Mercy race from two weeks back here. Market wanted to take a set against him given he was fresh in what was going to be a brutally run affair. He ran well without winning, finishing third. He’ll come on from that and is hard to beat.

9 Sisstar (Bet Now: $9.50) is a Team McEvoy trained mare that is a real short course specialist. Resumed in the 955 Final on William Reid Night at the Valley and was a very impressive winner under Matty Cartwright, breaking the track record in the process. She can be hit and miss but her best is clearly good enough.

7 Rubisaki (Bet Now: $12.00) is the biggest query of the meeting. We know how good she is and go back to last season, outside Loving Gaby, she was the best three year old filly in Australia. Had a two run Spring prep and failed to fire each time. Spelled, given a good break, couple of trials…huge market watch.

6 Felicia (Bet Now: $4.80) is a quality mare that resumes, with eyes towards the Sangster I dare say. She really came of age in the Spring, highlighted by a win at this track/distance in the How Now. Very genuine horse that puts herself on speed and gives her all, which should be the case once again here.

3 How Womantic (Bet Now: $3.60) looks to be back on track. Market liked her a few weeks ago in the Hareeba and she looked the winner when presented on the turn. Just couldn’t quite finish it off and was nabbed late by Laverrod. That was her first run in several weeks so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

7 Broadawayandforth (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Mitch Freedman trained mare that looks to be going well. Resumed in the Sword Of Mercy race from a fortnight ago here and while to the eye, it was just a run, her late splits were sharp relative to the meeting. Interesting with the stable throughout the career, they go 9% with first up runners. That jumps to 17% second up, and this mare does have a good second up record.

Looks a suitable race for the Freedman mare 10 Lunakorn (Bet Now: $4.80). Bit unlucky fresh in the Mannerism at Caulfield behind Rich Hips. She then went to the Matron at Flemington and just got too far back in an on pace domination won by Sovereign Reward. Better suited here and off the resumption, think she wins.

14 Good And Proper (Bet Now: $4.80) is three weeks between runs since contesting the Gold Bracelet at Bendigo. She was back near last in the run in what was a very slowly run race and she did a remarkable job to get as close as she did. She would have won in another stride. Hard to beat off that effort.

3 Great Duchess (Bet Now: $12.00) is a Greg Eurell trained mare that resumes. This girl had a two run Summer prep and she was pretty ordinary for the most part, the latest run seeing her finish down the track behind Probabeel. Recent jumpout was a sharp piece of work, and we know her best is good enough.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 3 Beau Rossa

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 6 Felicia

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 9 Johandough

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 2

Leg Two: 5, 7, 9, 10

Leg Three: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7

Leg Four: 3, 10, 14, 17

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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