17/10/2020 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Northerly Stakes day

The Ascot Carnival warms up this Saturday with a nine race program, headlined by the Northerly Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out five metres for the entire circuit.

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I think 1 Bollinger Boy (Bet Now: $6.50) can make it back to back wins. Wasn’t much of a field he gets two weeks ago at Kalgoorlie, but it was the turn of foot he had to produce that was impressive, producing some of the best late splits of the meeting, which for a stayer is a big tick. In his corner, just, but not a great deal of confidence.

7 Xan Bio (Bet Now: $6.50) is a lightly raced more who is building up a decent enough record and I think can measure up here. Solid enough two back at Belmont before dropping back to provincial grade at Northam and was an impressive winner. Now her confidence is up, she could well go on with it and finds a winnable race.

The rise back up to a staying trip should suit 6 Vintage Stock (Bet Now: $11.00). She came back to the mile at Northam last time out and stuck to the task pretty well in defeat when third. Now back up in trip, she can be more effective, especially from a kind draw to do no work. Effective enough to win? I’d say no, but one for exotics.

Want to give 4 Indian Chant (Bet Now: $9.50) another chance. The Fernie camp tried to get him to measure up to a Hannans during the Kalgoorlie Carnival but he wasn’t quite able to do so. This looks more his level and at his best, he is certainly capable of beating these, so leaning his way but I’d watch the market flucs.

2 Rewrite The Stars (Bet Now: $2.20) is a Universal Ruler mare for the McAuliffe camp that resumes. She put together a good sequence of runs when last in work, establishing herself as a city class horse. Gets the claim for Azzopardi and has trialled well leading in, so think she has to be respected against this lot.

6 Tajmali (Bet Now: $8.00) gets one last chance. Peter Fernie trained mare that has had two runs back from a break and I think on face value, you’d have to mark her down as disappointing. The key might well be finding firmer footing, which she should get here, and potentially control things from the front. Hard to beat if that eventuates.

9 Friday Knight (Bet Now: $5.00) looks one of the best on the program. Team Gangemi trained three year old that looks very progressive and the big ticks for him here are the rise to 1200m and Blinkers first time. He ran over 1000m at Belmont three weeks ago and produced excellent late splits when fourth. If he can use gate one, gee he will take some beating here.

6 Secret Plan (Bet Now: $2.20) will need luck from the gate but gee it was an impressive debut win at Belmont when back near last in the run before peeling wider and producing a brilliant turn of foot to get the job done. Will need luck again, but potentially could be a very good horse, so will be interesting to see what the market does.

1 Sassy Trader (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Trade Fair thee year old that resumes. This Team Casey trained youngster raced twice in his first prep and created a good impression in both runs, suggesting he could well be a Carnival contender. Trialled well leading in and Blinkers on first up signals intent to me. Leading contender.

Good test for 8 Notorious One (Bet Now: $1.85), but I think he’s well and truly up to this and making it 3/3 to start his career. Both wins to date have come in relatively weak races at Belmont, but it’s the manner in which he has won that has been impressive and each time he has looked like a horse that would get better with time. Happy to be with him here.

Think back on firmer footing will really help the cause of 6 Playing Marika (Bet Now: $12.00), who found a wet track at Belmont last time out and didn’t exactly ping when asked for the big effort when down the track behind Arnie’s Boy. Should get a dry deck this time around and is a two time winner at Ascot. Key threat for sure.

5 Midnight Blue (Bet Now: $11.00) is a talented son of So You Think for Team Williams that resumes. This stayer hasn’t raced since his 3YO season when trying to measure up in a Derby but failed to do so. Given a good break, has had two trials to get ready and the 3kg claim helps. Looking for him to get back and find the line strongly.

1 Special Choice (Bet Now: $4.60) on top. Team Williams trained mare that looked a near good thing when she raced at Kalgoorlie two weeks ago and under a lovely steer from Johnston-Porter, the mare wore them down late and was too good. Tricky draw, but gets the 3kg claim and you’d like to think that third up, she’s got improvement to come.

3 Point Taken (Bet Now: $14.00) is on the seven day back up for the Jim Taylor stable after racing here last Saturday in a strong race. She seemed to have her chance but was far from disgraced in defeat behind Dom To Shoot. This looks a more winnable race for her and Azzopardi sticks. She can take this out for sure.

Great to see 4 Heaven’s Gift (Bet Now: $8.50) back at the races. Holly Locke trained mare that came a long way in a short space of time in her first prep, graduating from a Bunbury maiden to going within a neck of winning the WA Oaks. Whatever she does here, she will improve on, but she does have class/quality.

Jump and run please 2 Condor Heroes (Bet Now: $2.80). Five weeks between runs since resuming over 1000m at Belmont where he was near a brutal speed and tried very hard, but couldn’t quite fend off the very promising Long Beach. Has had a few weeks t recover from that gut buster and I hope they jump and let him run here.

3 Battle Storm (Bet Now: $3.60) is back in WA and back with Team Williams. Had a one run stunt in Victoria, which came at Caulfield when far from disgraced in defeat behind Gododdin. Resumes without a trial but prior to heading to Melbourne, he was touted as a potential Winterbottom horse, so really keen to see how he resumes.

9 Elite Street (Bet Now: $14.00) is a Street Boss gelding for the Dan Morton camp that resumes. This four year old is first up, having not raced since July 27 at Belmont over 1200m when making it four on the bounce, but the signs were there that he was a tired horse, so like he has been given a break and keen to see how he measures up.

I have this as a race in two. Leaning the way of 9 Laverrod (Bet Now: $5.50), a quality four year old for the Casey stable that resumes and I do hope they train him as a sprinter and not a miler. They tried to stretch him out in trip last prep, but it took away his great leg speed. Trial indicates he’s been trained as a sprinter and looks to get a perfect sit off a brutal speed.

2 Valour Road (Bet Now: $4.50) is the other winning chance I feel. Simon Miller trained gelding that likely has eyes towards another crack at the Winterbottom. Pretty solid prep last time in during the Spring/Summer, including a Stakes win. Looked sharp in a trial win and another that maps to get a perfect run in transit.

The best version of 1 Man Booker (Bet Now: $12.00) is certainly capable. He’s been a grand campaigner for Dan Morton for a number of years but this prep will probably be the guide as to whether or not he’s got the zest for racing still. Trial behind Valour Road was decent enough and the speed on in front, he’ll be strong late.

I think 2 Free Trade (Bet Now: $13.00) can bounce back here. Michael Lane trained gelding that bounced back to his brilliant best two back in the Idyllic Prince before going to the Black Heart Bart where on face value, he was terrible, but was found to be slow to recover post race, so clearly an excuse. Fab record at Ascot and maps perfect.

10 Red Can Man (Bet Now: $9.00) can bounce back here on a firmer track. He resumed in the Black Heart Bart where he was near the speed throughout and battled away very well in defeat behind Stageman, but that was the first time he found wet ground and he wasn’t as effective. Back on a dry track, he can win this for sure.

9 Cup Night (Bet Now: $7.50) would have been clear top pick had he drew inside. Just think he might get too far back from the wide draw, but I reckon he’s a leading chance for the Railway. Resumed in the Black Heart Bart and I thought 250m out, he was the winner, but Stageman kicked very hard and was too good. He’ll get back and launch late.

3 Position Of Power (Bet Now: $3.80) could potentially lead these for fun and if that eventuates, I think he’ll take some real catching here. On face value, touch disappointing three weeks ago at Belmont behind Spillinova, but he’s better than that for sure and here, he looks like he could get a good time of it in front and prove hard to run down.

2 Moschard (Bet Now: $3.70) finds a very winnable race here for the Peter Fernie stable. This guy contested the Hannans during the Kalgoorlie Carnival when back in the run and never really a winning threat, but loved the way he made up ground late behind Money Matters. If he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.

1 Mystery Miss (Bet Now: $11.00) is an Animal Kingdom mare that resumes for the Adam Durrant stable. This girl hasn’t raced since May 9 over 2100m here when down the track and looking a tired horse behind Utgard Loki. Trial was decent enough to get ready and she can pull out a decent run fresh, so watch the market.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 9 Friday Knight

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 9 Laverrod

LONG SHOT: Race Eight Number 2 Free Trade

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 9, 10

Leg Two: 2, 9

Leg Three: 2, 6, 9, 10

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 6

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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