17/10/2018 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Caulfield, Blue Sapphire Stakes day

The Caulfield Cup Carnival continues on Wednesday where it is Blue Sapphire Day. The weather forecast is for showers, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

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6 Opposition (Bet Now: $4.50) for me. I think the trip away, getting back to Melbourne could spark him into action. Forget his run in the Metropolitan last time given the tempo was stop/start and he was out the back, seemingly with no hope. Severe drop in depth this time around and has run well in Melbourne before.

5 Steel Prince (Bet Now: $2.70) is a Darren Weir trained stayer who is starting to turn the corner, winning his past two. He slogged it out best to win two back at Bendigo before going to Mornington where he did work in the run but was even more impressive in winning. Rises in depth here, but hard fit and in form.

Convinced that 4 Azuro (Bet Now: $8.50) is flying but is just struggling to find the right race. I thought that was the case last time on the Parks track at Morphettville but he couldn’t quite get past the in form Valac. Hopefully a more even level playing field this time around and the extra trip should suit him.

7 Junipal (Bet Now: $8.00) looks a progressive three year old for Darren Weir who ran well two back on Benalla Cup Day behind Mirette before racing on the bog at Donald and admittedly he beat scrubs, but it was the manner in which he won that was impressive, winning by ten. Always respect the Weir horses up in grade.

2 Cloak (Bet Now: $8.00) is the class of the field and at his best he would go awfully close. He hasn’t raced since the Dulcify at Randwick where he was tardy away and that pretty much put pay to his chances behind Mickey Blue Eyes. If he jumps, he should lead, and the run prior behind Aramayo was a beauty and that form reads well.

8 Gheedaa (Bet Now: $10.00) looks a nice filly for the Hayes/Dabernig team who resumed with an electric win from the back on the Geelong Synthetic before going to Kilmore where the tempo was hot and she was chasing a fair way from home but class got her there in the end and proved too good. Harder here, but I think the mile will be okay and can’t knock a winner.

7 Fifty Stars (Bet Now: $2.70 BOOKIES ODDS) should be putting them away I think. Very promising galloper for Darren Weir who resumed in a hot open handicap on Benalla Cup Day and his run was absolutely outstanding after doing work in the run, beaten by Sheriff John Stone. If that run hasn’t busted him, I think he’ll take care of these and go on to better things.

I’m wary of 8 So Far Sokool (Bet Now: $10.00). Stable is flying and I reckon this girl could definitely improve out of sight. Resumed on Moir night at the Valley and was just okay without being great behind Moonlover. Second up last prep she absolutely bolted up in the Bendigo Guineas and if she gets a good speed here, she’ll be dangerous.

6 Fastnet Latina (Bet Now: $23.00) is a quality animal for Archie Alexander who was 70 weeks between runs when resuming on Benalla Cup Day where he just looked in need of the run but was solid enough in defeat behind Sheriff John Stone. He looks to have come back well and up to 1400m with the run under the belt, he’s likeable.

Keen to see 2 Take It Intern (Bet Now: $4.00). He made his Australian debut over 1400m here where he was somewhat run off his legs early but balanced and 250m out he was there to win but just ran out of puff late when fourth to Cliff’s Edge. Up to 1700m with the fitness under the belt looks an ideal recipe and this field clearly has not as much depth.

The likely wet track does leave me with some reservations about 1 A Shin Rock (Bet Now: $6.00), but hard to knock his form this time in. Thought it was a ripping ride from Clayton Douglas that got the win last time at the Flemington midweeks. He got stuck in a fair way out and lifted the horse home. He’ll improve off that…just needs a dry track.

5 Romancer (Bet Now: $13.00) looks to be ticking over beautifully for Darren Weir to win a race. Is it here though? Not sure. Thought there was merit in his Bairnsdale Cup run last time behind Our Bottino without luck, which is pretty much what happened the start prior in the Tatura Cup. Just give him clear air to see what he’s got under the hood.

1 Written By (Bet Now: $1.65) is a deserving favourite but gee I think red figures is rock bottom and I couldn’t take him at the odds on offer at the moment. Resumed over 1000m here just under a month back and I thought the win was tradesman like, nothing brilliant. I reckon a hard 1200m is the query, but on form, has to be respected.

2 Encryption (Bet Now: $4.60) is a James Cummings trained colt who was terrible here two back in the McNeil behind Native Soldier before racing down the straight in the Danehill where he turned his form right around and produced an unbelievable finale to win. Closed off well in a jump out a couple of weeks back so he appears on track.

The forgotten horse is clearly 3 Performer (Bet Now: $9.00). If he ran to anywhere near his best, I think he’d go close. I think you just have to put a line through his two runs this time in given they have been on wet tracks, seriously wet tracks. Freshened up, trialled well against the older horses…weather is the key. If we get soft5/soft 6 at worse, he’s in the game.

1 I Am A Star (Bet Now: $3.90) is indeed a star and she looks well placed once again. Won her second straight Stocks Stakes on Moir night, sitting on speed throughout and never really looking like getting beat with the run she had. Think this looks ideal for this mare en route to potentially the Myer Classic and will get a good run near the speed.

I reckon 2 Oregon’s Day (Bet Now: $3.60) is due to just about do something. She was very good late in the Sir Rupert Clarke behind Jungle Cat. Never really looked likely but I liked the way she finished her race off. Up to the mile is a big tick for her and at her best, she can certainly win this. Just needs the right run in transit.

5 Kenedna (Bet Now: $15.00) is a mare who looks to be going okay for Darren Weir. She comes through the Stocks at the Valley where there was a nibble or two for her at longer odds and while she didn’t win, I thought she ran okay in defeat behind I Am A Star. Not sure she can turn the tables, but the bigger track should help.

Back Me: I think the safe play here is 3 Trekking (Bet Now: $3.20). He is just a beauty for James Cummings with the horse really turning the corner since being gelded. He was a strong winner of the Testa Rossa at this track/distance and despite getting held up early, he finished best and won impressively. I think he can continue the picket fence.

12 Addictive Nature (Bet Now: $3.00) is a former Bjorn Baker trained galloper that is now with Darren Weir. Can the master work his magic with this horse? He has had a Group l boom on him since day one and he didn’t live up to that when racing in Sydney. Now with Weir, I find him a fascinating runner here fresh.

Very wary of 1 Age Of Fire (Bet Now: $34.00), a former Te Akau racing three year old now four and is now with Darren Weir. He was one of the better three year olds when trained in NZ before coming to Sydney in the Autumn where he didn’t measure up in two runs. Now with Weir, he’s a big watch first up here.

Keen to see 2 Danon Roman (Bet Now: $3.90) at 2000m. Former Japanese galloper for Anthony Freedman who has been quite good in two Australians, both over 1700m behind the above average Furrion. That form reads very well for this and his best efforts when in Japan were at this trip, and he’ll welcome the drop in depth.

If he puts it all together, 3 Lucky For All (Bet Now: $2.20) should be winning, but he’s starting to wear the patience of punters. Should have won first up at the Valley when wanting to duck in before racing over 1800m here and again he wanted to duck in when surging and cost himself dearly. He’s the best horse in the race by a mile. Just has to put it together.

7 Netherfield (Bet Now: $16.00) could be an improver. Mick Price trains this five year old, who was beaten a pimple by Royal Music two back at Morphettville before racing there again in the Tokyo City Cup where he was outclassed behind Moss ‘N’ Dale, who franked the form in Sydney. Gate one, Olly on, back up to 2000m, he can improve big time.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 7 Fifty Stars

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 7 Junipal

LONG SHOT: Race One Number 6 Opposition

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 2, 3

Leg Two: 1, 2, 5, 7

Leg Three: 1, 3, 8, 12

Leg Four: 1, 2, 3, 7, 11

$50 Investment= 20.83% of the dividend if successful

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