The Autumn Carnival in Perth continues this Saturday at Ascot where the feature race is the $400,000 Group l WATC Derby (2400m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (14:34) : Real Iced Tea Co Handicap (72+) 1600m:
Back Me: 8 Universal Law (Best Odds: $2.10) produced an amazing performance first up here a couple of week back. He got knocked around all over the shop, he was dipping and diving on the wet track yet still savaged the line. Clearly should have won, and now with Pike on from the inside gate…it’s hard seeing him get beat.
Big Danger: 4 Eurosun (Best Odds: $9.00) is a perennial tease, but he is racing well. He ran here last Saturday and just couldn’t quite finish it off behind Lunar Eclispe. Doubt he can win, but he is a must for exotics.
Roughie: 2 Woodbine (Best Odds: $34.00) is the best bred horse going around but he is just not firing at all really. He tried to lead all the way here a fortnight back and just wilted late. He does look the sole leader here and if he gets a cheap sectional here, he could run a cheeky race.
Race Two (15:09) : Red Shoe Society Handicap 1000m:
Back Me: 9 Captivated Point (Best Odds: $6.00) creates some interest. Steve Wolfe runner that just absolutely brained them on debut on his home track at Albany and ran smart time. Harder here, but you had to be impressed and that track had some give in it, so any rain won’t deter his prospects.
Roughie: 2 Mystic Maid (Best Odds: $5.00) is a handy filly that resumes. She was runner up in the Karrakatta last year and performed well during the Summer Carnival. No trials, but she has a touch of class and can sprint well fresh against this lot.
Big Danger: 1 Brisanto (Best Odds: $8.50) has been given a three week freshen up since sprouting wings to win over 1200m. Speed will be on for her here no doubt and despite carrying top weight, she is a leading contender.
Race Three (15:49) : Schweppes Handicap (72+) 1000m:
Back Me: 1 Military Reign (Best Odds: $2.50) was too nippy for them first up here over 1200m, beating home Group l mare Magnifisio. Rises big time in weight, but Pike remains and he really should just about take care of this lot.
Big Danger: 7 Hot Goods (Best Odds: $3.60) was touted as a star of WA racing but she has performed badly below her high standards in three runs this time in, all of which have come here, while her five wins were at Belmont. On her ability, she can win, but her record suggests otherwise. She goes in…but just.
Roughie: 3 King Closet (Best Odds: $26.00) comes through the feature sprint race on Albany Cup Day and was just left floundering a touch late behind Run Liam Run. Stable is having a really good run at the moment and if he can find his best form, he’d be very competitive here.
Race Four (16:29) : Western Australian Cup 3200m:
Back Me: 1 Tower Of Lonhro (Best Odds: $2.10) worked home strongly last time out in the Pinjarra Cup (2300m) to run a close up second to Zarantz. He looks as though he will eat up the two miles and is in the right stable.
Big Danger: 9 Saxy Grace (Best Odds: $8.00) is a stablemate of Tower Of Lonhro and also comes through the Pinjarra Cup where she got back and found the line nicely to run third. She lacks the class and talent of Tower Of Lonhro, but she has upside and should be strong late.
Roughie: This is the sort of race that 6 Kirov Boy (Best Odds: $16.00) can spring an upset in. He hasn’t had the race to suit at each three outings this prep, but if Danny Miller can get him rolling like usual, he is tough and will stay all day.
Race Five (17:09) : Sheila Gwynne Classic 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Magnifisio (Best Odds: $2.70) is a class mare for Jim Taylor that resumed here a couple of weeks back and tried hard when a close up second to Military Reign. She is a Group l winner and given the weights scale, she is well weighted.
Big Danger: 3 Cadenza (Best Odds: $9.00) ran third in that race mentioned above and her effort was pretty good given she was rising sharply in grade. Back to her own sex now and should take some beating I think.
Roughie: 8 Zonte (Best Odds: $26.00) was freshened up before running over 1100m here a couple of weeks back and sticking to her task quite well behind Aunty Zelma. She will love the step up in trip, has upside and will be strong late.
Race Six (17:48) : Auto Classic BMW WA Sires’ Produce Stakes 1400m:
Back Me: 1 Saul’s Special (Best Odds: $2.60) just got a touch too far back in the Karrakatta (1200m) but still worked home very strongly when running third to Whispering Brook. He will eat up the extra furlong and Pike jumps on, so he looks the way to go.
Big Danger: 8 Whispering Brook (Best Odds: $2.25) was just awesome in winning the Karrakatta, leading throughout and was quite dominant on the line. Maps very well again and looks the sole leader, so if she can pinch a cheap sectional, 1400m will be no issue.
Roughie: 3 Rising Sea (Best Odds: $21.00) ran last Wednesday over this track/distance where he got a long way back in the run and worked home strongly. Harder here, but he will run the trip out better than most and draws a soft gate.
Race Seven (18:25) : Schweppes WATC Derby 2400m:
Back Me: 1 Kia Ora Koutou (Best Odds: $2.15) looks ready now. He has needed the three runs to tune up for his Grand Final, the latest in the Melvista (2200m) a fortnight back when second to Who Dat Singa, closing off strongly against the tempo. Hopefully he won’t be far away from gate one and only bad luck will beat him.
Big Danger: 9 Arcadia Dream (Best Odds: $6.00) tried very hard last time out in the WA Oaks (2400m) but couldn’t overhaul stablemate First Impressions. Stable has a wonderful record in this race, especially horses who come here via the Oaks, and Pike chooses her.
Roughie: 6 Cappo D’Oro (Best Odds: $34.00) grinded away strongly in the Melvista when running third, beaten just under three lengths. Fred Kersley knows how to handle a stayer and this horse does have upside.
Race Eight (19:00) : Kai Constructions Handicap (1MW) 1200m:
Back Me: 11 Celebrity Dream (Best Odds: $3.20) is a class filly for Grant Williams who resumed here and didn’t get the best of luck when a close up third to Aunty Zelma. Draws to sit closer, fitter, stable firing…I don’t think she gets beat.
Big Danger: 8 Cool Passion (Best Odds: $2.70) is a handy galloper that resumes here. Hasn’t raced since late January when bolting up here and bleeding in one nostril. No trials and drawn wide, but there is just so much upside.
Roughie: 4 Key To Fame (Best Odds: $5.50) is a quality animal who resumes here for Simon Miller. He hasn’t raced since attempting to lead all the way in the WA Guineas when midfield to Man Booker. Loved his recent trial win and he can certainly sprint well fresh.
BEST BET: Race Eight Number 11 Celebrity Dream
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 1 Kia Ora Koutou
VALUE: Race Two Number 9 Captivated Point
Quaddie (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 1, 2
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 8
Leg Three: 1
Leg Four: 11
$50 Investment= 625% of the dividend if successful
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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