Nine races will be run and won at Rosehill this Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is soft (6) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (11:25) ATC Handicap 1400m
I think there is a bit to like about 4 Pedicel (Bet Now: $3.90). The Hayes/Dabernig stable train this filly, who was solid in betting when debuting over 1100m at Canterbury and like in the trials, she was niggled at before the turn but she kept finding and was strong to the line. She’ll have no issue with seven furlongs and has upside.
I’ve underestimated 1 Ronstar (Bet Now: $2.10) in both career outings but I won’t be this time. He is a beauty. Does it from the front and fights really hard, as we have seen in his two starts here, both resulting in wins. He has looked in trouble each time but when asked for more, he found. 1400m the little query, but hard to knock him.
5 Toulouse (Bet Now: $6.50) is a David Payne trained youngster that is first up here. This bloke tried to qualify for the Slipper in a couple of key lead ups but was just outclassed. This looks more his level and his two trials leading in have been solid enough. Also resuming at 1400m, which I think is a big tick for this horse.
Race 2. (12:00) Ascot Restaurant Sale Handicap (80) 1400m
8 Sweet Victory (Bet Now: $4.50) on top for me. Mark Newnham trains this quality filly, who did the work in the run but proved too good two back at Hawkesbury before racing at the Warwick Farm midweeks where she was heavily backed and despite not really handling the surface, she proved too good. Hopefully firmer footing this time around and back to 1400m will suit.
1 Gresham (Bet Now: $2.50) is a talented type for Chris Waller who is starting to put it all together now. Bolted up two back at Canterbury before racing at the 1500m here two weeks ago where he was gifted a rather soft lead and he made them pay with a dominant all the way triumph. Back 100m in trip no issue, hard fit and in form.
6 Sparky Lad (Bet Now: $11.00) isn’t one of mine but with the race cut down a bit by scratchings, I think he comes into play as a long shot threat. Wasn’t too bad behind Gresham in an on pace dominated affair while he was out the back. Run prior behind the older horses was solid…couldn’t back him to win but happy to chuck him in exotics.
Race 3. (12:35) TAB HIghway Handicap (Class 3) 1500m
12 Haames (Bet Now: $11.00) looks a good each way gamble I think. He ran in the Radiant Choice Highway here a fortnight back and I thought his effort for a three year old was very good. Closed off really well nearer the inside to run third. The extra 100m will suit him ideally and if he can sit closer in the run, he’ll take some beating.
4 Dia De Reyes (Bet Now: $4.50) is four weeks between runs for the Matty Dunn team since scoring a dominant Highway win over 1200m here, aided by a lovely steer from J Mac. The win had merit to it given he was first up over an unsuitable trip and he beat Coup De Main and Bocelli, two horses who I think can be Country Championship horses next year. Up to 1500m a tick and is a second up winner.
If you’re a fan of 5 Central Witness (Bet Now: $8.00), I think you’ll be hoping for the track to remain with genuine give because he is a bomb when he gets his toe in. Really good run last time out at Randwick behind Bastia in a benchmark 85. Drops to Highway grade here, so I would have thought that reads well for here.
Race 4. (13:10) #theraces Handicap (75) 1500m
2 So Splendid (Bet Now: $3.10) on top for me in a nightmare race. Chris Waller trains this mare, who can be a bit tricky to follow at times, but I always give a tick to horses who end a prep on a winning note and that is what she did when bolting up over 1800m at Sandown. Two trials leading in have been encouraging and first up at 1500m tells me there is intent to run well.
3 La Chica Bella…(Bet Now: $3.70) she’s going well but has she got that winning killer instinct? We’ll find out here. Ran over 1400m here a fortnight back and I thought she had her chance to win when third to Princess Posh. You could say disappointing but she wasn’t beaten far and did try hard. I think this is D-Day for her.
5 Royal Stamp (Bet Now: $15.00) is a Marc Conners trained filly who has come back quite well I think. Both runs this prep have come in weaker races at Kembla Grange but she has caught the eye each time, firstly behind Fireman Sam I Am before a close up fourth to Red Hanno. Not sure she wins, but she can add value to exotics.
Race 5. (13:45) Winter Racing Handicap (77) 1800m
I reckon if 15 Hemmerle (Bet Now: $8.00) handles the wet track, he just about wins this. Loved his effort in the Highway at here a fortnight back. Radiant Choice controlled things beautifully from the front and had it won a fair way out, but Hemmerle really closed off well. Being by Lucas Cranach, up to 1800m looks perfect and there should be a good speed.
1 Vaucluse Bay (Bet Now: $5.50) has had two runs back from a spell for Chris Waller and I think he has been really good in both runs. Resumed with a narrow second to Monasterio at Warwick Farm before being wide no cover in a game effort when third to Bastia over the mile at Randwick. Third up at 1800m, he looks ready to fire.
13 Walk The Streets (Bet Now: $7.50) is crying out for a trip and she gets to it here. Ran over 1550m at Canterbury last Wednesday and didn’t like the bog surface at all. She was gone on the turn but whacked and in the end wasn’t too bad behind Braces in running fourth. Third up now, so she should be close to hard fit and is looking for this kind of trip.
Race 6. (14:25) Kensei Handicap 2000m
8 Lovani (Bet Now: $11.00) if we get a genuine wet track, looks the one to beat. Brad Widdup has done a really good job with this mare since taking over from Robert Smerdon. She ran in the Premiers Cup last time out at Doomben where she did work in the run and I thought her effort was more than sound behind Rising Red. Good record at the trip and she thrives on rain affected ground. The one for me.
7 Dagny (Bet Now: $3.50) is having her first crack at ten furlongs but the way she is racing at the moment, she’ll have no issue with the journey. Narrow margin when winning over 1800m here a fortnight back but it was dominant. Held up for the most part but the last 150m she burst through and proved too good. She has the turn of foot and upside.
I’ve got no idea what to make of 4 Nurse Kitchen (Bet Now: $4.80). Excellent run for the new stable in the Dark Jewel before being heavily backed in the Lord Mayors Cup at Doomben and she just didn’t handle the track at all. Looked as if she’d be tailed off on the turn but she picked up and was good late. 2000m with give in the track looks a perfect set up.
Race 7. (15:05) Rosehill Bowling Club Handicap (95) 1400m
2 Invinzabeel (Bet Now: $4.80) resumed in the Sir Bacchus race here two weeks back and his effort was very good. Not really known as a first up horse but gee he showed a good turn of foot and only was gunned down late. Goes much better second up and if he produces natural improvement from that resumption, he’ll take some beating.
9 Flow (Bet Now: $3.20) is a talented gelding that resumes for James Cummings and Godolphin. This bloke had a mixed Summer prep where he showed glimpses of blacktype talent but for the most part just didn’t put it together on a consistent basis. Good fresh record and I like what I have seen from him at the two trials.
1 Dark Eyes (Bet Now: $15.00) is a son of Snitzel that resumes for the WaterBott team. This bloke hasn’t raced since Magic Millions Day in the staying race when down the track behind Tumultuous. Horses have really struggled to recover from that afternoon so no surprise he’s dodged the Autumn. Been given a good break, two trials have been solid enough and he’s an unknown.
Race 8. (15:45) Half Yearly Membership Sprint (89) 1100m
14 Albumin (Bet Now: $3.70) has been a bludger for some time but the freshen up and keeping him to sprint races is the key it would seem. Electric win four weeks back at Rosehill over 1100m, getting the lovely sit just off the pace before getting the split and his class came to the fore late. Can he put a couple of wins together? I’ll watch rather than back.
6 Ozark (Bet Now: $7.50) comes through the Top Striker race here a fortnight ago. He got a fair way back after a tardy beginning but did rail up to be a threat in the straight. Didn’t have much room and probably should have finished closer behind the Greg Hickman runner. Should get a lovely run off a hot speed and launch.
If the track remains to have genuine give, 10 Ziggy Willie (Bet Now: $34.00) comes right into play. He is an absolute swimmer but his recent form on top of the ground has been quite good. Latest run came during the Scone Carnival when working home to run fourth to Akasaki. Been freshened up and his tick over trial at Warwick Farm looked pretty good to the eye.
Race 9. (16:25) Sydney's West App Handicap (80) 1300m
4 Manolo Blahniq (Bet Now: $4.80) on top provided the track does dry up to around a Soft 5/6. He needs it dry-ish to be a threat, which is why he was a late scratching from the Golden Topaz at Swan Hill last Friday. Resumed over 1100m here and worked home okay near the inside behind Albumin but 1100m isn’t his go. 1200-1400 is so he gets his chance I think.
3 The Avenger (Bet Now: $7.00) is a Chris Waller trained son of Smart Missile who is putting together a pretty good little record. Unwanted in betting when resuming at the Canterbury midweeks but under hard riding from Magorrian, he proved too good for them. Bit more depth here, but his form from last prep does read very well.
9 Shock Alert (Bet Now: $12.00) is the interesting one. The tactics first up were to be ridden with cover from the gate, but they elected to go forward and he ran well without winning when fourth to The Avenger, beaten just under two lengths. Don’t see much early speed here, so I think he can roll to the front and give a sight.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Nine Number 4 Manolo Blahniq
NEXT BEST: Race One Number 4 Pedicel
LONG SHOT: Race Three Number 12 Haames
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 1, 4, 7, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 9
Leg Three: 1, 2, 6, 10, 14
Leg Four: 3, 4
$50 Investment= 31.25% of the dividend if successful
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