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The Winter Carnival at Brisbane warms up this Saturday at Eagle Farm, headlined by the Daybreak Lover (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.

Ascot Handicap 🏆: View the Field and Odds for the Ascot Handicap

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Race 1. (11:38) Members' Cocktail Night Hcp 1400m

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3 Green Shadows (Bet Now: $3.80) comes straight to town for the Ryan/Alexiou camp after debuting with a strong win over 1300m at Goulburn. It wasn’t the strongest race going around but he knuckled down nicely late when the race was there to be run and he was too good. He has winning form, upside, in a good camp, hard to beat.

Danger

5 Tyresa (Bet Now: $2.70) is a filly with upside and progression. The inside gate was used to advantage two weeks ago here and the end result was a strong win, though I could argue that the runner up Hang Five should have won with normal luck. I do think that form is strong though and this girl has good upside to come.

Long Shot

6 Honkytonk Diva (Bet Now: $4.60) is a handy juvenile for Kelly Schweida that was far from disgraced in the Aquis Jewel behind She’sgottheboom before going to the Gold Coast again where she looked a good thing on paper and duly bolted up. Back at this level, she’s in the mix.

Race 2. (12:13) Sky Racing (bm85) 1815m

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5 Namazu (Bet Now: $3.10) is a quality animal for Ricky Vale that I am confident can measure up here. He has been beating up average horses in recent runs, but it’s the arrogance of the wins that have impressed me, and how strong he has been late. 1800m here no issue, lands on the bunny and will take beating.

Danger

7 Reggiewood (Bet Now: $2.50) should love getting back on top of the ground. Impressive win two back on the Kenso track before going to Canterbury where he found a Heavy 157 and just couldn’t pick his feet up. Back to firmer footing, and with the claim for KWT, he can bounce back.

Long Shot

4 Group Think (Bet Now: $16.00) is three weeks between runs for Michelle Payne, with his last run coming over the mile at Eagle Farm where he just ground to the line without really threatening behind Slow Hands. He’s racing like he wants more ground and he gets that here. Knockout hope.

Race 3. (12:48) Stradbroke Ball (bm78) 2400m

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1 Street Dancer (Bet Now: $2.50) looks like he will eat up 2400m. David Vandyke trained gelding that ran over 2000m at the Doomben midweeks and really, he was absolutely trucking in the run. Just a matter of Maloney pushing the button and once he did, it was race over. Off that, 2400m is fine, upside, in the right camp…hard to beat.

Danger

6 Lunasnit (Bet Now: $4.80) is racing like the rise to 2400m will suit for Barry Lockwood. Ran a fortnight back over 2200m here and was good late from the back behind impressive winner Ostermeier. Has run well at this track/distance before from three runs back and off her two subsequent runs, the rise back in trip should be ideal.

Long Shot

5 Rations (Bet Now: $4.80) has been up a little while but continues to race at a pretty solid level for Barry Baldwin. Last couple of runs have come over 1800m here, winning two back at the midweeks before racing two weeks ago where he ran well but was no match for a handy three year old in Edmonton. Like him up in trip, hard fit, in form…likeable.

Race 4. (13:23) Happy Easter From The Brc Hcp 1000m

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I’m with 7 Mikki Rose (Bet Now: $9.50). This filly has had two career outings, debuting at the Sunny Coast and bumped into a potential star, Nettuno. Raced there again, found firmer footing and she was impressive from off the speed, giving them a galloping lesson. She’ll be strong late off a good speed and has recent winning form.

Danger

4 Glamborgini (Bet Now: $2.45) has done little wrong in two starts. Debuted with an electric win at the Gold Coast before backing up a week later in the Aquis Jewel and she tried hard, but was no match for She’sgottheboom. Four weeks between runs and back to 1000m, with the claim, she appeals.

Long Shot

3 Allude (Bet Now: $6.50) is a quality colt for Chris Munce that resumes. He debuted with a strong third in the BJ McLachlan before going to the Gold Nugget at the Gold Coast and ran a solid third. Given a break and has trialled well leading in, plus draws soft. Market will tell you if he’s ready.

Race 5. (13:58) Cascade (bm80) 1500m

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11 Festival Prince (Bet Now: $2.40) is knocking on the door to win. Good late fresh at the Gold Coast behind surprise winner High Cost. He then raced over 1400m here where he was hailed as the winner, only to be nabbed late by Bullfinch in a driving go. He’s racing like 1500m suits and has good upside to come.

Danger

2 Bullfinch (Bet Now: $4.60) has the runs on the board to give this a shake. Definite pass mark fresh behind War Eternal at Rosehill. He then ran over 1400m here two weeks ago when given a peach by Larry Cassidy and drove hard late to get the win, just, over Festival Prince. Hard fit and up in trip, he appeals.

Long Shot

4 Enterprise Prince (Bet Now: $8.00) is third up from a break and should be at peak fitness. Resumed with a narrow second to Confessed before racing here two weeks back where he got back in the run and failed to come on behind Bullfinch. 1500m is a query, but his best is good enough to be dangerous at odds.

Race 6. (14:37) Stradbroke High Tea (bm72) 1600m

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5 Sienna’s Choice (Bet Now: $4.40) on top for me in a tricky race. She ran last Saturday at Doomben and I thought she was excellent from near last on the turn behind Baanone, keeping in mind fence in run was red hot for the meeting. Hard fit, up to the mile, bigger track…like her here.

Danger

3 Gave Us Up (Bet Now: $7.50) should be suited up in trip. Ran over 1350m at Doomben three weeks ago and was solid late without threatening behind impressive winner Fifteen Rounds. Few runs prior, he ran a beauty at this level over the mile so with that in mind, he commands respect.

Long Shot

13 Balmaurice (Bet Now: $8.00) deserves another chance. I’m very forgiving of his effort at Doomben fresh. They rode him far too warm and he was a beaten horse at the top of the straight when down the track behind Sensationalisation. With a conservative steer, he’ll be more effective.

Race 7. (15:22) Daybreak Lover 1400m

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8 Green Belt (Bet Now: $2.80) is a very promising animal for the Price/Kent team that resumes. 2/2 to start his career during the Summer, spanking them on debut at Cranbourne before copping serious heat on speed at Sandown and entitled to knock right up but he found plenty late to win. Jumpouts have been good. Hard to beat if he can overcome the wide draw.

Danger

1 Release The Beans (Bet Now: $3.80) should eat up the extra 200m. Rob Heathcoate trained three year old that resumed two weeks ago over 1200m here where he got a fair way back in the run but worked to the line quite strongly late when third to Enterprise Pomme. If he can sit closer in the run, which he can, he’ll take beating.

Long Shot

Back to 1400m and firmer footing I like for 2 Flying Crazy (Bet Now: $8.50). Dominant win two back in the Canberra Guineas before going to the Carbine Club at Randwick where he struggled in the going behind a Group l horse, Straight Arron. Back in trip and back on top of the ground are two big ticks. Just not sure where he gets to from the draw.

Race 8. (16:02) Ascot Hcp 1000m

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Back Me

1 Zoustyle (Bet Now: $3.30) is a 1000m specialist and can produce sustained speed from the front. He is first up here, having not raced since Boxing Day when failing to run out the six furlongs in the Falvelon when fifth to Roheryn. Like him fresh at 1000m and he could explode here, making a real statement for the Carnival.

Danger

12 Simply Fly (Bet Now: $26.00) has an awful racing pattern but he can let rip when he gets conditions to suit. Resumed over this track/distance two weeks ago where he got back to near last in the run and was never really a threat but liked the way he finished his race off behind Delexo. He’ll get back but be charging late.

Long Shot

10 Je Suis Belle (Bet Now: $15.00) is a talented mare for Mark Currie that has been given a mini freshen up, having not raced since March 6 when on speed and sticking on okay when third to the in form Boomtown Lass. Sharp trial win at Toowoomba to get ready and has a liking for Eagle Farm.

Race 9. (16:38) Tab Stradbroke Calcutta (bm80) 1200m

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4 On The Lead (Bet Now: $5.50) is two weeks between runs after racing at this track/distance. He got a fair way back in the run and was never really a threat but liked the way he finished his race off behind Delexo. Like him from the inside gate and hopefully can settle a pair or two closer in the run.

Danger

2 Tramonto (Bet Now: $5.00) will put herself on speed and look to give her all. Ran over this track/distance two weeks ago when near the speed and boxing on pretty well in defeat when a close up third to the very much in form mare Boomtown Lass. I reckon with a more conservative steer, he’ll be more effective.

Long Shot

6 Rhythmic Pulse (Bet Now: $16.00) is on the back up for Grant Allard after racing last Saturday at Doomben when back in the run and closing off okay without threatening behind impressive winner More Sundays. Good second up record and I think is dangerous if he can use the inside gate.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Three Number 1 Street Dancer

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Namazu

LONG SHOT: Race Four Number 7 Mikki Rose

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 2, 3, 5, 11, 13

Leg Two: 1, 2, 4, 8

Leg Three: 1, 8, 10, 12

Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 6, 12

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