16/3/2019 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, Natasha Stakes day

The Ascot Autumn Carnival continues this Saturday where we will see a couple of features with an eye towards the Oaks and Derby. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.

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13 Amelia’s Contraire (Bet Now: $4.20) is the interesting one. Daughter of Hinchinbrook for the Simon Miller stable that debuted last Wednesday over 1100m at Bunbury where she was a hard odds on pop and despite getting held up late, she wasn’t really going like a winner and was disappointing behind Dig Deep. Bigger track and with the run under the belt, she can be a sharp improver.

2 Downforce (Bet Now: $4.40) is a Snippetson colt debuting for the Neville Parnham stable. This bloke has only had the one start, which came in October at Belmont when a solid third to Amarillo Rose, beaten over a length. That form has been good so far and his recent trial win was good, and the time was solid relative to the morning. Soft gate, he’s a threat for sure.

1 Tinsnip (Bet Now: $4.60) is a handy enough looking gelding for Adam Durrant that is first up. Thought he showed real potential in his first prep, with the trials suggesting he was above average. Just didn’t quite produce it on raceday but showed enough to warrant following him into the future. Trial win last week at Lark Hill was sharp to the eye and stable is in form.

5 Cup Night (Bet Now: $4.80) is a Bernie Miller trained gelding that resumes. This three year old hasn’t raced since the Summer Carnival where he finished last in the Lee Steere behind The Velvet King. Looked very sharp in a Belmont trial win last week and if there’s any sort of positive market push for him here, I want to be more so in his corner because he is above average at his best.

1 Kelly’s Callisto (Bet Now: $5.00) is a Planet Five gelding resuming for Adam Durrant. He hasn’t raced since resuming back on December 15 here when running a game fourth to the above average filly Angelic Ruler. Tipped out after that and trialled well enough at Lark Hill. Market will be the guide but he’s got enough quality to win this, and doesn’t mind getting into a fight.

I think 2 Fairview (Bet Now: $12.00) can bounce back here. Sean Casey trains this filly, who is on the seven day back up after racing here where she wasn’t suited by the soft, borderline heavy track, when down the track behind Double Bubble. She’ll be much better suited on firmer footing and her form prior does read so well for this. Just hoping she’s overcome last Saturday.

1 Express Flirt (Bet Now: $2.15) is a Lou Luciani trained gelding that is a couple of weeks between runs after racing over the mile here where he was a little unlucky, but overall, I thought he had his chance when clear, running a close up third to Bella’s Idol, who bolted in last Saturday to frank the form. He’s hard fit/in form and will be strong late if he gets conditions to suit here.

3 Rebel Knight (Bet Now: $2.30) is going great guns at the moment. 2/2 this time in, the latest coming over 1400m here when near the speed and outgunning his rivals in a pretty good effort, burning the candle at both ends with the 60kg. Has to take on the older horses this time around but 1600m no issue IMO and hopefully can land on speed without doing too much work, proving hard to run down.

2 The Escort (Bet Now: $15.00) looks suited up to the mile. He ran over 1400m here last time where he sat back in a slowly run affair and was never really a winning threat but he kept coming and was far from disgraced in defeat behind Chesten Flyer. Yet to really run a bad race this time in and though a query at the mile, the way he’s racing at the moment, he should be fine.

1 Saracino (Bet Now: $3.80) is a talented stayer for Chris Gangemi who is having his first full prep for the stable. Had one run for them during the Carnival last year in the Prince Of Wales when disappointing behind Dainty Tess. Has had the full prep now and he looked very sharp in a trial win at Belmont last Tuesday. Hopefully the market agrees that he’s come back in good order.

6 Electric Light (Bet Now: $2.80) is an above average daughter of Vital Equine for the Adam Durrant stable that resumes. This four year old has had nine career starts for seven wins and a placing, most of which happened during the Winter last year against moderate opposition but she did it impressively. Trialled well at Lark Hill a few weeks ago and hard to knock a mare with her record.

8 Seeker (Bet Now: $14.00) is a hard fit/in form sprinter for the Lou Luciani stable. He ran over this track/distance two weeks ago where he was given a lovely sit just off the speed from Whiting and he loomed large to win when he hit the front but was bloused late. Bit more depth and drawn wide this time around, so not sure I could back him to win, but I think he goes in multiples.

Fitter and up in trip could see some sharp improvement from the Chris Gangemi trained 7 Supposition (Bet Now: $26.00). Pulled up with heat stress first up down the Pinjarra straight behind Captain Stirling before racing over 1000m here where he was just run off his legs but okay late behind Fabergino. Up to 1200m, third up, he should just about be ready, and this isn’t a strong race. Hopefully parks off a hot speed and gets a look in the straight.

4 Macroy (Bet Now: $4.50) is a Bruce Watkins trained mare who is in career best form at the moment. Sat wide with cover at this track/distance last time where I thought Witten gave the mare every chance in the run and in the end, it was only the bob of the head that beat her, with Santiago Gal getting the verdict. Now she’s had the 1200m run under the belt, she’ll be better off.

It’ll be interesting to see what the tactics are with the Jim Taylor trained 1 More Aces (Bet Now: $9.50). He comes through the Santiago Gal race mentioned above where he was given the box seat sit by McNaught and for mine had every chance to win but was no match for the first two. Effort was still sound and once again draws well, so he’s a chance in this kind of race.

Have to give 2 Assetro (Bet Now: $6.50) another chance. To the eye, the 1000 Guineas run behind Adornment was plain, but bear in mind they absolutely crawled in front and for a filly that was out the back, she really had no hope of running on well enough. Hopefully a true staying contest this time around, because she does seem like a horse frying out for more ground.

1 Adornment (Bet Now: $2.50) looks a filly of some promise for the Williams camp. Had the perfect run behind the speed in the 1000 Guineas and when Pike got her into clear air, it was game over and she won with a touch of class/authority, albeit slightly aided by the slow sectionals. But she seems to have a bit of upside left in the tank and is bred to handle 2000m+.

11 Dark Choice (Bet Now: $4.80) is still a maiden for Team Williams but she does look quite promising. Comes through the 1000 Guineas where she was one of many not suited by the slow tempo but she kept coming and was quite game in defeat behind stablemate Adornment. Looks a real Oaks candidate, got a stack of upside left…too soon? Perhaps, but hard to ignore the stable.

If it’s indeed a sit/sprint, then 1 Regal Power (Bet Now: $2.00) is the horse to beat. 12/10 steer from Pike got him home in the Lex Piper last time, getting the perfect sit just off the speed before waiting as long as possible to push the button. Hand was forced when Fred Dag loomed and headed, but Pike lifted him late. 1800m a query, especially if the speed is on, but he’s got the A1 form.

3 Platoon (Bet Now: $20.00) looks a knockout chance for the Neville Parnham stable. This bloke comes through the Lex Piper where he was back in the run in a race which was suited to those near the speed, so he really had no chance of picking up Regal Power but his finale was more than sound. Up to 1800m should suit, can sit closer in the run from the draw…$21 looks clear overs.

From a Derby perspective, I’d continue to have eyes on the Roy Rogers trained 7 Classic Jack (Bet Now: $101.00). He comes through the Lex Piper where he just didn’t have the speed in the legs to go with them when the sprint went on. 2000m+ is when you’ll see the best of him, but if they overdo it in front, he will be a horse that will be strong at the end of a slogging 1800m.

5 Special Delivery (Bet Now: $5.00) will do me. Mark Bairstow trains this galloper, who comes back to 1400m after racing over the mile here last Saturday where he sat back near last in a slowly run race and by the time he got going before the turn, the leader Rockon Tommy put the foot down and those behind had no chance. Form prior to that was good so give him another chance.

11 Arctic Stream (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Ross Price trained stayer that resumes. This bloke hasn’t raced since December 1 over 2100m here where he got a mile back off the pace but wormed home strongly to run second to a handy stayer in The Big Show. Resumes without a trial and drawn wide, but Pike booked looks a good lead. Just want to see what the market does and how he parades.

I reckon 8 Touch Of Silver (Bet Now: $6.00) is racing in okay form. He’s had two runs back from a spell and has finished sixth each time, the latest coming a few weeks back here when back and never really in the hunt but did make up ground very late in the piece behind Debellatio. He should just about be ready fitness wise and this race, overall, doesn’t appear to be strong.

BEST BET: Race Four Number 1 Saracino

NEXT BEST: Race Two Number 5 Cup Night

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 7 Supposition

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7, 10

Leg Two: 1, 2, 8, 11

Leg Three: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Four: 3, 5, 8, 11, 12

$50 Investment = 12.50% of the dividend if successful

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