The Summer Carnival at Ascot continues this Saturday with an eight race card, highlighted by the $250,000 Group lll AJ Scahill Stakes (1400m). The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out nine metres for the entire circuit.
Race 1. (16:24) Heineken 3 Plate 1100m
6 Fairtrusive (Bet Now: $3.60) for me in the opener. Dan Morton trains this filly. Both career outings have come at this track/distance. Debuted with a sharp win at the midweeks before racing in the Crystal Slipper where she had no luck at all in the straight behind Nocelle. Provided she gets normal luck, I think she wins.
2 Fire And Rain (Bet Now: $3.40) has to rate highly. Ran second to Fairtrusive on debut at the midweeks before stepping back to the provincials at Bunbury where he dominated proceedings from the front and gave nothing else a look in. Draws to lead comfortably and with the two runs under the belt now, 1100m is no issue.
3 Generous Charlie (Bet Now: $4.80) is the pick of the first starters to my eye. Sean Casey trains this youngster. Has had two public trials, the latest coming over 1000m at Belmont where he bolted up by six lengths. He draws to get the suck run behind the speedy Fire And Rain and perhaps have last say. Definite threat off the trial and how he maps.
Race 2. (17:04) The Merrywell Plate 1100m
2 Illustrious Tycoon (Bet Now: $2.05) is an interesting runner and I’l take the gamble he is forward enough to run well fresh. He debuted over 1000m at Belmont in June where he showed brilliant early speed to lead and from there, it was painless as he careered away and ran really good time relative to the meeting, and the form has been great since. Sharp trial at Belmont suggests he is just about ready to go.
3 Saturia (Bet Now: $4.20) is a Paul Jordan trained filly who is on the seven day turnaround after resuming over 1000m here last Saturday where she had the box seat run which really isn’t her go so I can forgive her for the sixth to Ambiente. I think she’ll ping the lids and be up near the speed. If that eventuates, she’ll go close.
1 Cognac (Bet Now: $14.00) will love the drop in depth here. He is three weeks between runs for the Paul Jordan stable since contesting the Placid Ark Stakes where he sat on speed and tried very hard but just weakened out of it late behind Ocean Jewel. That form has been franked with Arrum Boy winning last Saturday. Good draw and inside gate are big ticks.
Race 3. (17:43) RS Crawford Stakes 1000m
Small field but ripping race. Landed with 1 Durendal (Bet Now: $2.05). He ran a mighty race in the Winterbottom behind Viddora. Had the box seat sit, peeled out, tried hard but just lacked the class, and he pulled up with a laceration. That’s the A Grade form for this, he should get a lovely run from the gate and looks the one to beat.
5 Volkhoff (Bet Now: $2.30) is three weeks between runs since resuming in the Jungle Mist where I thought she was fabulous in defeat, sitting wide no cover throughout and was only bloused very late in the piece by Celebrity Dream. Has more upside and does get a 2.5kg weight swing on Celebrity Dream from that race here.
Flip of the coin for third pick. Landed with 2 It’s It (Bet Now: $9.00) He comes through the Carbine Club where he attempted to lead all the way but just didn’t have the class behind Zuccheros. Think he leads these comfortably in the small field, ad as we know in these small fields, anything can happen, especially at this level.
Race 4. (18:20) Amelia Park Beef Handicap (72+) 1100m
9 Gee Boss (Bet Now: $2.80) for me. He resumed over the 1000m here a fortnight back where he did a bit of work from the wide gate to sit on speed and he tried hard but was no match late for the above average The River. That run should bring him right on from this and from the ideal draw, Parnham has plenty of options.
1 More Aces (Bet Now: $4.50) is a talented son of Zizou that resumes for the Jim Taylor yard. This bloke hasn’t raced since mid September when racing over 1200m at Belmont and placing behind subsequent Stakes winner Rebel King. Thought he trialled up very well at Belmont last week and gets in really well at the weights after the claim.
5 Sweet Ora (Bet Now: $5.50) is first up for Adam Durrant and I think she is a definite watch. Overall, she was very poor last prep, but she was a three year old filly taking on the older horse and didn’t really measure up. Been given a good break and I thought her trial at Lark Hill in late November was quite good to the eye.
Race 5. (18:57) Heiniger Handicap (72+ 1500m
4 See Me Sizzle (Bet Now: $5.00), with better racing manners, wins this. He ran over the mile here a fortnight back and gee his effort was huge considering he did a power of work to find the lead, then pulled his head off in the run. Still had the audacity to fight like he did and was only bloused late by A Touch Of Silver. Should get a soft lead here and with better manners, he wins. Provided that run hasn’t busted him.
6 Gunnago (Bet Now: $3.90) is the knockout chance. Jason Pateman trains this galloper and he is three weeks between runs since racing over 1400m here where he did a mountain of work, wide no cover on speed for the trip, yet still kept finding and was only narrowly beaten by Cruachan. If he gets cover here, he’ll take some beating.
3 Wrinkly (Bet Now: $4.60) is a horse in ripping form for Neville Parnham who is on the seven day back up after leading all the way to win here last Saturday in a race which carried less depth than what he faces here, but it was a tidy victory all the same. Don’t think he’ll want to get into a war with See Me Sizzle, because he won’t win that fight.
Race 6. (19:35) Tabtouch Handicap (1MW) 1400m
Taking a chance on 1 Sasso’s Circus (Bet Now: $16.00). This bloke resumes for the Adam Durrant team after a two run Winter prep at Belmont where he was legless on the heavy tracks. Been given a really good break and I thought he went very nicely in a recent Belmont trial win. Happy to have something on him each way.
3 Pinball Wizard (Bet Now: $2.80) is a son of Trade Fair that is absolutely low flying at the moment for the Williams stable. He hasn’t raced for around three weeks since getting such a lovely ride from Maddison Brown at Northam to score a dominant win, getting the box seat sit before angling clear and savaging the line to win. He can continue the picket fence.
6 Fire Detonator (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Sharon Miller trained gelding that is first up here. This bloke had a pretty solid Winter prep, highlighted by a win over 1400m at Belmont in what has turned out to be a decent form reference with several winners. The dreaded Bar Plates are on but we have seen recently they aren’t as big of a negative as what they are made out to be.
Race 7. (20:10) Seacorp AJ Scahill Stakes 1400m
If the rail 6 State Solicitor (Bet Now: $3.60) turns up, I think he wins. The stable have always stated he will be better over further than a sprinting trip and this is the first time he will beyond 1200m. He was a remarkable drifter in betting when running in the Winterbottom and the market got it spot on as he really struggled to pick up. Giving him another look.
2 Ulmann (Bet Now: $3.20) is the big improver back to this level. I think these days the mile is a stretch for him so I am happy to forgive his Railway failure where he got back and couldn’t really come on. He is an absolute bomb at 1400m and he can be a bit of a hot head so I like Brad Rawiller on board. Definite threat.
7 Zuccheros (Bet Now: $18.00) is the knockout chance. Adam Durrant trains this gelding and this bloke is also three weeks between runs since running the Carbine Club where he sat off a good speed before rounding them up and winning with a fair bit of ease on the line. Clearly harder here, but it’s hard to ignore the way he is going.
Race 8. (20:45) San Cisco Performing Perth Cup New Years Day Handicap (66+) 2200m
Sticking with 7 Dudemanbro (Bet Now: $5.00). Thought he did a really good job in the Jazari race here a fortnight back. Was off the bit a fair way out as is his normal pattern but he kept finding and was sound to the line when fourth. I’d like to see him roll forward because while he has no turn of foot, he will stay all day.
3 Star Value (Bet Now: $4.80) also comes through the Jazari race. Lee Newman gave the horse such a sweet ride off the pace and the ride really deserved the win but first go beyond 1800m, he just felt the pinch last few strides. Has that run under the belt now, so he should be better off and be stronger at the end of the race.
9 Saxapak (Bet Now: $23.00) is another that comes through the Jazari race. He had the box seat sit throughout under Autier and he tried really hard but given the hard speed, he just couldn’t finish off. If he gets a cold sit from the good draw here, I think he’ll be strong late and for mine could well be the overs in the race.
Best Bets & Quaddie Tips
BEST BET: Race Five Number 4 See Me Sizzle
NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 6 State Solicitor
VALUE: Race Six Number 1 Sasso’s Circus
Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):
Leg One: 2, 3, 4, 6
Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6
Leg Three: 2, 3, 6, 7
Leg Four: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9
$50 Investment= 13.02% of the dividend if successful
All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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