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The Ascot Carnival continues this Saturday with a nine race card, with a key race being the Ascot Cup and the RJ Peters Stakes (1500m), with the winner assured a start in the Railway next Saturday. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out ten metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (15:48) Mira Clinic Handicap (1MW) 2150m

Back Me

Love the way that 6 Sentimental Gift (Bet Now: $2.50) is progressing and confident she can take this out. Sat last in a small field last start at Bunbury before peeling wider, getting into her work and her staying prowess came to the fore, drawing clear late to win again and continue a very good prep. Harder this time around, but she’s heading in the right direction and the trip will be no issue.

Danger

5 Vintage Stock (Bet Now: $11.00) is a bit unknown at this trip, but she’s giving the impression that she’ll be suited at 2000m+. Ran over 1800m here last time out when given a lovely ride just off the speed before chiming in on the turn and in a driving go, she finished best to score, suggesting that more ground will suit, which is what she gets here, and finds a winnable race.

Long Shot

1 Go Crying (Bet Now: $9.50) is flying for Steve Wolfe. Just a matter of where he gets to from the wide gate. He ran over 1800m here two weeks ago where he got a fair way back in the run from the wide barrier and the leader had stolen a march, but Go Crying picked up very strongly late to just miss out on the win. The trip should be fine…just hope he can sit more closer in the run.

Race 2. (16:24) Sightseeing Pass Australia Handicap (72+) 1000m

Back Me

Going with 4 Undisclosed (Bet Now: $11.00), who resumes for Colin Webster. This mare is first up, having not raced since June 29 when back off the speed before chiming in and looming large but couldn’t finish it off behind Free Trade, who was one of the form gallopers in WA during the Winter, so that form reads well, and this girl does love dry ground and a fast run 1000m, both elements she gets here.

Danger

11 Wanna Be Good (Bet Now: $7.50) is a talented animal for Lindsey Smith who on paper has been struggling at his past few, there have been excuses. Tricky gates, sitting wide in the run and slow tempos haven’t helped him at his past couple, but when you break it down, they have had merit to them. Gets a much better barrier this time around and gets really good weight relief.

Long Shot

Not entirely dropping off 2 Night Voyage (Bet Now: $13.00). He comes through the Massimo race from two weeks ago over 1200m here when on speed and he was a beaten horse at the top of the straight in a very disappointing performance, but I think he was ridden upside down. Better ridden cold I suggest, so if that can eventuate here, he can run a much improved race.

Race 3. (17:04) Fine Wine Wholesalers Handicap (72+) 1400m

Back Me

1 Royal Command (Bet Now: $2.70) may want further, but I’m hoping that the run under the belt has sharpened him up. He resumed at this track/distance two weeks ago when off the speed and held up at times but loved the way he found the line late behind Platoon, who is flying this time in. Has that fitness on his side now, and though better suited over a bit further, he has class/quality.

Danger

7 Mankind (Bet Now: $7.00) is the interesting runner. He’s been well placed in recent runs and the stable have been rewarded with some pretty good performances, resuming two weeks ago over 1100m here and finishing hard, right over the top of his rivals for a fab first up win. Jumps straight to 1400m, which is a little query, but hard to knock what he did fresh.

Long Shot

6 Sir Mambo (Bet Now: $6.00) is an absolute beauty for the Martin Allan stable. This gelding has won his past two, both over 1200m here when on speed and kicking strongly when asked to get the job done. The depth of those races were nowhere near as strong as what he faces here, but gets right down in the weights, has a good gate and McNaught remains on.

Race 4. (17:47) Westspeed Platinum Series Heat (0MW) 1400m

Back Me

Have to butter up with 2 Not To Be Mist (Bet Now: $2.20). He carried the hopes of a nation in the get out on Cup Day last Tuesday, with Pike on…but it ended up being a nightmare finish to the day. He was building momentum and about to burst through, win…but the gaps closed and he pretty much went around like it was a barrier trial. Clear air this time around and he wins.

Danger

9 Lacevinsky (Bet Now: $9.50) is a son of Playing God for Simon Miller that ran at this track/distance two weeks ago where he was on speed and looked to give a decent kick under Carbery, but couldn’t quite finish it off when beaten narrowly by a hard fit and in form Sir Mambo. Bit more depth this time around, but does have upside and the right racing pattern.

Long Shot

1 Dickoletto (Bet Now: $6.50) had trialled up in solid fashion prior to resuming at this track/distance on Cup Day in the race mentioned above where Not To Be Mist had no luck at all, the race won by Ebony Magi. This guy sat outside the speed and looked to travel, giving a good kick when asked but was bloused late. Has to contend with more depth but draws well and Parnham takes over.

Race 5. (18:25) RJ Peters Stakes 1500m

Back Me

7 Platoon (Bet Now: $2.80) has to be respected. He does boast a win over Regal Power, so that form does read well for here. He is 2/2 this time in, both in easier races, the latest coming two weeks ago over 1400m here when wide no cover and pulling yet still finished over the top and produced one of the wins of the day. If he can relax better in the run and get cover, he’ll be hard to beat.

Danger

3 Mississippi Delta (Bet Now: $2.60) i a key threat for me. Talented mare for the Williams camp that hasn’t raced since the Perth Cup when running a game fourth to Star Exhibit after sitting wide no cover for the trip in a very game effort. Has had five trials to prepare for her return, so fitness certainly won’t be an issue for her and she does have a touch of class/quality on her side.

Long Shot

9 Tamasa (Bet Now: $11.00) is a very interesting runner. Lindsey Smith could have put this horse into a much easier race, but the fact he’s racing here in search of a Railway start tells me he must be showing something decent at home to keep persisting. His best is clearly good enough to run well, but in three WA runs this time in, the latest coming in September 28, have been just fair. That’s the knock.

Race 6. (19:02) Ascot Gold Cup 1800m

Back Me

9 Friar Fox (Bet Now: $6.50) looks suited up to 1800m. Justine Erkelens trains this mare, who had a little freshen up prior to racing in the Northam Cup where the tempo was clearly against her but liked the way she found the line late in the piece behind the flying Tellem We’re Comin. Up to 1800m and fitter, from the gate, I think she’s a good each way gamble.

Danger

Back up to 1800m looks a tick for 4 Forceful (Bet Now: $2.35). He came back to the mile last Saturday here and under a lovely steer from Pike, he surged over the concluding stages and was too good for Harry Thomas. Run prior at this track/distance behind Cockney Crew was a beauty and that form looks pretty good for a race like this. He’s a leading contender.

Long Shot

7 Dark Musket (Bet Now: $31.00) looks on track for the Perth Cup. In the form guide, it says he ran last over 2200m here last time out but the tempo was an absolute crawl and those from the back had zero chance, including Dark Musket. Back in trip is a negative, but the tempo should be more genuine and his efforts prior to last were quite good for this assignment.

Race 7. (19:37) WA Champion Fillies Stakes 1600m

Back Me

4 Tuscan Queen (Bet Now: $2.15) gets the nod, just. Several of these come through the Burgess Queen from Cup Day over 1400m here where she was one of a couple that had to chase the tearaway leader and she did that, but Kay Cee had the drop on those in front and finished over the top to beat Tuscan Queen. Tempo won’t be as brutal this time around I don’t think so happy to be in her corner.

Danger

There was no fluke in the win of 2 Kay Cee (Bet Now: $3.70) in the Burgess Queen. The run two back behind Boomtastic was a beauty which ensured she was hard in the market last Tuesday and she got the A1 run in transit, finishing best in a tight go to beat Tuscan Queen. She’s racing as if 1600m will suit her. The only knock on her is what do they do from the wide gate.

Long Shot

10 Cambist (Bet Now: $67.00) has been pretty good in two runs back from a break for the Robyn Lockwood stable. Big win first up over 1200m here before going to the Burgess Queen when back off a fast speed and was never really in the hunt but worked home okay late in the piece nearer the inside. 1600m should be fine for her and can go forward from the wide gate.

Race 8. (20:12) Colonel Reeves Stakes 1100m

Back Me

Gee I hope they just let 5 Misty Metal (Bet Now: $3.00) run. Holding her up isn’t the way to go. She was bolting first up in the Prince Of Wales and got clear, but pulling hard meant she spent petrol tickets and had nothing left late to hold out the finale of Flirtini. She races best when leading and rolling, so I’m hoping Turner lets that happen with this very good mare.

Danger

6 Flirtini (Bet Now: $2.70) just missed out on the win first up in the Crawford Stakes when third to Fabergino before going to the Prince Of Wales where she got the dream run off the speed before presenting wider and unleashing a brilliant finale to get up and beat Misty Metal. The wide gate does makes things tricky, but speed in front will be strong so she’ll get her chance.

Long Shot

13 Market Ruler (Bet Now: $16.00) is a Universal Ruler mare for Simon Miller that resumes. This mare had an Autumn/Winter prep, which ended with a down the track effort in the Bolton Sprint behind Valour Road. Very good first up horse and her trial leading in was quite good. Drawn a wide gate, so will be interesting to see what sort of tactics Knuckey does from out there.

Race 9. (20:47) Crown Towers Handicap (66+) 1600m

Back Me

14 Sublime Image (Bet Now: $4.00) is heading in the right direction for Team Williams and confident she can keep on her winning ways. Has won her past two at the mile, winning at this track two back before going to Bunbury when finishing best despite sitting off a slow tempo. Tricky gate, but has all the upside in the world and how else can you finish a day other than Pike in the last.

Danger

4 Inflation (Bet Now: $3.30) has returned in very good order. Just looked in need of the run first up before stepping up to 1400m here two weeks ago and tried hard but couldn’t get past Massimo, who ticked that form off by winning last Saturday, so that reads very well for this and with Inflation, the 1600m should be fine and third up, he should just about be at peak fitness.

Long Shot

7 Sophie’s Song (Bet Now: $8.00) is a query at the mile but she looks to have returned in really good order. Ran over 1400m here last Saturday when leading and kicking strongly in front but couldn’t quite see it through and was bloused late by Smarty, who looks a very progressive galloper for Peter Fernie, so that form reads well and the depth here isn’t as strong overall I don’t think.

Best Bets & Quaddie Tips

BEST BET: Race Four Number 2 Not To Be Mist

NEXT BEST: Race Eight Number 5 Misty Metal

LONG SHOT: Race Two Number 4 Undisclosed

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 4, 5, 7, 9

Leg Two: 2, 4, 5, 10

Leg Three: 5, 6

Leg Four: 4, 7, 9, 13, 14

$50 Investment: 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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