15/9/2017 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Newcastle, Newcastle Cup day

The biggest raceday on the Newcastle calendar comes around this Friday where it is Newcastle Cup Day, with four blacktype races on the eight event meeting. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is in the true position for the entire circuit.

6 Animalia (Bet Now: $2.40) was deep in the red when racing over the 1350m on the Beaumont track a tick under three weeks back but on face value, he was very plain I thought behind No Escape but perhaps the break between runs and the slow tempo was against him. Up to the mile, run under the belt, more tempo here…willing to give him another chance.

1 Static Lift (Bet Now: $5.50) is a Team Cummings trained five year old who is slowly getting back to his best form. He ran over the 1350m here on the Beaumont track last time out where he attempted to lead all the way and gave a good kick but was pipped late by No Escape. Maps well in the small field and Bowman takes over.

2 Tahsin (Bet Now: $4.00) was a bit of a funny run at the Canterbury midweeks on August 30. Got into a nice spot under Tye Angland and seemingly looked to travel well but he then decided to pop out three wide and put the pressure on and that just left the horse gassed on the turn behind Notio. With a more conservative ride here, he can bounce back.

3 Bon Equs (Bet Now: $4.00) will appreciate the drop in depth somewhat after contesting a couple of staying events at Warwick Farm at the midweek metro level. He has run well, but hasn’t quite measured up, just lacking that turn of foot to go with them. He doesn’t need to produce that turn of foot against this lot.

1 Der Meister (Bet Now: $3.50) hadn’t won in a long time but Paul Perry found a lovely race for him at the Brook last time out and it was the ride from Gibbons that won the race. He got going before the turn, built up momentum and that was the difference between he and Marman. Not much depth here and on his home track.

6 Bella Galeano (Bet Now: $6.50) is a Chris Waller trained mare who is getting closer to peak fitness and looks a threat. She ran over 2100m at Gosford last time out and had to chase a fair way out, which probably isn’t her go behind Crimson Halo. If she can get the sit and have last say, she’ll be more effective.

4 All Too Huying (Bet Now: $2.40) is on top for me here. Gary Moore trained three year old who contested some really good races during the Autumn Carnival and was far from disgraced in blacktype company. Recent trial placing at Randwick looks very good and really, on his form lines, he does look the one.

5 Dexluther (Bet Now: $4.50) is a son of Written Tycoon for the Bjorn Baker yard who was hard in the market when debuting at Wyong and I thought he ran quite well in defeat when a close up second to Catmosphere. The trials leading in prior to the debut were very good and he strikes a winnable race.

3 Smooth Whiskey (Bet Now: $6.00) is a Chris Waller trained son of Snitzel first up and he looks wound up to run a beauty fresh. His best form last prep came over a bit further, up to 1800m, but his two trials have been sharp, winning both and running solid time. Very keen to see what he does here first up.

5 Riva Romance (Bet Now: $5.00) on top for me here. Bjorn Baker trained mare first up after kicking off her career with three runs in the Autumn, her best effort being second on debut here on the Beaumont track behind Oakfield Rickie. Has looked quite good at the trials and gets Frosty steering.

4 Flying Rose (Bet Now: $9.00) is a Paul Perry trained mare on debut here, so no doubt she’ll be wound up to run a beauty fresh. She has had three trials to prepare for her debut, placing in all three, including a win in good time. Three solid trials should give her a good grounding to run a strong 1200m.

11 Pulang Pula (Bet Now: $5.50) is a filly on debut for the Mark Newnham yard. This girl has trialled twice in readiness for her first day at the races under Newnham and has been quite good each time she has stepped out, showing good ability it would seem. This isn’t an overly strong maiden so definitely include her.

I think only bad luck will beat 4 Merovee (Bet Now: $2.20). He looks a future Group l winner for Chris Waller and I am very confident he will pick up a Stakes win here. Loved his effort last time out at Randwick where he flashed home against the tempo to run a cracking second to in form galloper Super Ex. Big track, 1600m, hard fit…yes.

2 Hypnotist l(Bet Now: $8.00) ooks a nice type for Team Snowden who was fresh when contesting the Ming Dynasty and he just looked in need of the run behind Addictive Nature when beaten three lengths. Stable always gets them firing on big race days and this horse was strong in his three wins prior.

Expecting big improvement from 8 Whispered Secret (Bet Now: $13.00). I think you have to put a line through her run first up in the Furious behind Formality because the tempo/bias was clearly against her and the way she looked in the yard, she wasn’t ready. Feature 3YO race on her home track, with the run under the belt, she’ll be forward enough to run well.

Looks ideally suited to 7 Special Missile (Bet Now: $3.20). This John Thompson trained galloper is absolutely low flying at the moment, winning his last five, including four in town. He loves to dominate things from the front, whether it be leading or sitting outside the speed. Looks the leader here and should take some beating.

6 Kingsguard (Bet Now: $8.00) is a horse in really good form at the moment for the Hawkes team. Won well two back at Rosehill before going to the Rowley Mile where he didn’t give it up and chased hard all the way when second to Arbeitsam. Back to 1500m looks ideal, he maps well, hard fit and is in form.

2 Maurus (Bet Now: $11.00) was a real eye catcher I thought when he resumed in the Tramway. He was obviously going to find a few of those too slick but his last 250m near the inside was very good I thought. Has an excellent second up record and is a winner at Newcastle. Definite threat for mine.

Buttering up on 3 Sayed (Bet Now: $2.90). I think McEvoy got the tactics wrong on the horse in the Wyong Cup last time out. He was a bit too aggressive on the horse, getting him up near the speed, and in the end he was left a sitting shot for Destiny’s Kiss. This horse will be much better when he has a bunny to chase and I hope that eventuates here.

1 Destiny’s Kiss (Bet Now: $8.00) is an absolute ripper for the Joe Pride yard. Really good effort in the Premiers Cup behind Dee I Cee before going to the Wyong Cup six days later where he appreciated a decent clip and a lovely Bowman ride to get him in another feature Cup. He does get conditions to suit once again and has to rate highly.

Kris Lees would dearly love to win this race and I reckon his best chance comes via 7 Admiral Jello (Bet Now: $13.00). Tempo/weight beat him two back in the Taree Cup before going to Randwick where he ran an absolute beauty against the bias behind Up ‘N’ Rolling. On his home track, up in trip, weight relief…he’s the x factor.

I think 5 Imposing Lass (Bet Now: $4.50) can turn the tables on Lubiton here. These two clashed in the Mona Lisa on Wyong Cup Day and the latter got the win, but I thought the run of Imposing Lass was strong. I think the Newcastle 1400m will suit her perfectly and she has the more upside I feel.

7 Lubiton (Bet Now: $4.20) is a very good mare for Bjorn Baker who got some well deserved blacktype last time out in the Mona Lisa. The market got it absolutely spot on. They saw she’d get a cosy run outside the speed and that is how it panned out, with Glyn kicking her clear and holding on. Different ask here, but hard to ignore a mare in winning form.

11 Pygmy (Bet Now: $18.00) is the big watch here. James Cummings trained mare who resumes after a fab Winter, which ended with a fast finishing second to Egg Tart in the QLD Oaks, and during that mares winning sequence, she was the only one to make significant ground on Egg Tart. I think whatever she does here, she will improve on, but she has class.

BEST BET: Race Five Number 4 Merovee

NEXT BEST: Race Seven Number 3 Sayed

VALUE: Race Eight Number 5 Imposing Lass

Quaddie Tips (Races Five Through To Eight):

Leg One: 4

Leg Two: 1, 2, 3, 6, 7

Leg Three: 3

Leg Four: 3, 5, 7, 11, 12, 16

$50 Investment= 166.66% of the dividend if successful

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