A strong card of racing has been assembled for Caulfield this Saturday, with all eyes on the three year olds, who step out in the Vain Stakes (1100m) and Quezette Stakes (1100m). The weather is overcast, the track is good (4) and the rail is out three metres for the entire circuit.
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Race One (12:20pm) : ANZAC Handicap 2000m: Form Guide
Back Me: Good little staying contest here. I’ve landed with Diametric (Best Odds: $2.70). He ran over 1800m here two back and worked home okay late behind Miss Rose De Lago before doing something similar a fortnight back the Valley when a close up third to stablemate Bagman. Should get every chance from the good gate, Ollie back on…hard to beat.
Big Danger: Gingerboy (Best Odds: $3.70) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday at Flemington where he sat on speed and stuck to the task quite gamely when fourth to stablemate Refulgent. He ran a beauty here two back in the Miss Rose De Lago race mentioned above, and I do like the fact he is on the seven day back up, something that isn’t normally done by the Weir stable, so that’s a good lead.
Roughie: At First Sight (Best Odds: $5.00) is a stablemate of Gingerboy who ran in the Bagman race at Moonee Valley a couple of weeks back and worked home okay late when finishing sixth, beaten just over two lengths. He should be better suited on the bigger track, and Damien Lane is riding in superb form since coming back from Honkers. Definite winning chance.
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Race Two (12:55pm) : Legacy 2015 Badge Appeal Handicap 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: Keen here on Iggimacool (Best Odds: $2.50). The Tasmanian mare has had two runs for Robert Smerdon, both over 1200m here, and she has been fantastic at each outing, in particular last time out when storming home to finish a close up second to Forgeress, beaten narrowly. Up to the mile should only be beneficial, Williams on, and being third up, she should be just about ready to show her best.
Big Danger: Onpicalo (Best Odds: $4.00) is on the quick back up after racing last Saturday over 1700m at Flemington where he sat on speed all the way and fought on very strongly to just out in winning, settling for third to surprise winner Shenzhou Steeds in a close finish. Carried 57kg that day and now he tumbles down to 52kg, plus he looks the lone leader.
Roughie: Pelicano (Best Odds: $14.00) resumes here for Tony McEvoy after a solid yet frustrating Summer/Autumn prep, which ended with a disappointing display in the Adelaide Cup. Recent Morphettville trial behind an above average type in Eclair Choice, and I do like the fact that he resumes in Melbourne, perhaps a lead that the stable is confident he will run well.
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Race Three (1:30pm) : RSL Ramleigh Springs the Heart of Clyde Handicap (84) 1600m: Form Guide
Back Me: This is Dig A Pony’s (Best Odds: $2.50) race to lose IMO. She was excellent two weeks back over this distance at the Valley when storming home late to finish a close third to First Bloom. Back on her home track, gate one, Dunn aboard…she just ticks all the boxes, and anything other than a win would seem to be a disappointment I feel.
Big Danger: Spirit Of Heaven (Best Odds: $6.00) ran second in that First Bloom race mentioned above, and she was enormous in defeat given she sat wide no cover on speed for the entire journey, so for her to finish as close as she did was fantastic. Drawn terribly again, which is the worry with her, but Ollie sticks, and she is back on her home track.
Roughie: Distant Dreams (Best Odds: $20.00) also comes through that First Bloom race, and I think just forget she went around there given she got too far back from the wide and couldn’t get into the race at any stage. Draws much better here, so she should be able to sit closer to the tempo and Jordan Childs is back on, and he rides the mare very well.
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Race Four (2:05pm) : Beveridge Williams Plate 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Vezalay (Best Odds: $2.80) is a classy mare that resumes here for Team Corstens. She was completely luckless, at times, during the Autumn, most notably in the Typhoon Tracy behind Written Dash. She then went on to run a beauty in the Kewney and she didn’t disgrace herself at all in the William Red behind Lucky Hussler. She should get every chance from the good draw and Ollie sticking.
Big Danger: Our Harmony (Best Odds: $9.00) has her first run as a four year old mare off the back of several runs against the three year old fillies, and has been quite competitive. Freshened up after failing at Flemington behind Herstory, but she did look sharp in a Cranbourne trial win on Monday, plus she gets gate one and Regan Bayliss, who rode her in the trial, rides her here.
Roughie: More Radiant (Best Odds: $7.00) resumes here for Mick Price after a successful Autumn, which saw break her maiden before going to win down the straight at Flemington in a pretty handy three year old race. She has always shown good promise, and with time and maturity, she could very well realise her potential, and a recent jump out at Caulfield was very good.
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Race Five (2:40pm) : KS Environmental Vain Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: Leaning towards Stoker (Best Odds: $8.00) here for Tony McEvoy. He resumed three weeks back in the Lightning Stakes (1050m) at Morphettville and worked home well late from last to run sixth to above average type Wild Rain, beaten just over six lengths. He should take good improvement from that run, and his lone run here did result in a seventh to Pride Of Dubai in the Blue Diamond. Should go very well here.
Big Danger: Demonstrate (Best Odds: $6.00) took a little while to break his maiden, but he did it in fine style three back at Mornington before running fifth to Jalan Jalan to Flemington, then heading to the Valley where he was given a peach from Newitt to get the job done there. Looked pretty solid in work on Tuesday at Flemington and looks wound up to run well here.
Roughie: Gold Symphony (Best Odds: $4.40) scored an impressive debut win at Mornington before going to Flemington and running well, but was no match for Jalan Jalan, who looks all class, so that form should hold up really well. Hard to beat here for sure.
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Race Six (3:20pm) : Lister Quezette Stakes 1100m: Form Guide
Back Me: IMO, this is the race of the day. Several classy fillies going around here, and I think the best, potentially, is Miss Gunpowder (Best Odds: $6.50), the Adelaide visitor. This Phillip Stokes trained filly debuted back in March and brained them before being tipped out. She resumed three weeks back and won very impressively again, hugging the inside, which on the day was not the spot to be, but she still finished best. She is all class and I am very keen to see how she shapes up here against this lot.
Big Danger: All you can do is win and that is what Petit Filous (Best Odds: $1.75) has done at both outings, both over 1000m at the Valley. She has looked very sharp in both wins, but has faced nothing compared to what she faces here, so it’ll be intriguing to see how her form holds up here, but she has the race fitness advantage, trained on the track, stable flying and should get every chance.
Roughie: Jalan Jalan (Best Odds: $6.00) scored an impressive debut win at Mornington (Metro) before coming here and being a luckless third to Green Card. She then went to Flemington and aided by an absolute peach from Ollie, the daughter of Foreplay proved far too good for her rivals. She has 1600m written all over, so 1100m is short of her best, but she has residual fitness, trained on the track, and she will be very strong late.
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Race Seven (4:00pm) : Back to Caulfield P.B. Lawrence Stakes 1400m: Form Guide
Back Me: Not the strongest edition of the P.B. Lawrence but certainly an intriguing contest to dissect. I’ve landed with Excess Knowledge (Best Odds: $4.80) given he is the horse who ability wise and fitness wise, has so much upside. He only had two runs in the Autumn, winning first up on Keith Nolan Day at Kembla before winning the Doncaster Prelude. He could have easily run in the Doncaster, but Gai tipped him and had her sights set on the Spring, and based on what I’ve seen at the trials, he is going to be very competitive in whatever he contests this time in. First time at Caulfield for a Sydney horse is never easy, but if one trainer can overcome that negative, it is Gai Waterhouse.
Big Danger: Smokin’ Joey (Best Odds: $3.40) is just racing in grand form at the moment. He followed his Eye Liner win with a dominant display in the Bletchingly, sitting wide throughout but powering to the line with real authority. You have to ride him ugly, and Chris Parnham is riding this horse to absolute perfection, and has previously. He has the fitness on his side and the form on the board.
Roughie: Great to see The Cleaner (Best Odds: $11.00) back on the track. He had three runs in the Autumn, starting off with a shock loss first up in the George Adams on Launceston Cup Day. He then went to the Australian Cup and ran a very brave fourth to Spillway before probably having enough when fifth to Sertorius in the Easter Cup (2000m). He always runs well fresh, he’ll lead and he gets on very well with Noel Callow, so I like that booking. He’ll give you a great sight.
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Race Eight (4:40pm) : Winslow Group Regal Roller Stakes 1200m: Form Guide
Back Me: Griante (Best Odds: $7.50) is the clear class runner here. The gun mare really shaped up last time in, with the highlight coming in the William Reid when third to Lucky Hussler after sitting wide throughout. Trialled on Monday at Cranbourne and looked fantastic when third to Rich Enuff. Bigger fish to fry, but class will carry her a long way here.
Big Danger: Barbed (Best Odds: $8.00) comes to Melbourne after a pleasing effort last time out in the Ramornie Handicap (1200m) during the Grafton Carnival, finishing second to Rock Royalty in track record time. He has since trialled at Randwick, and though he finished last, he travelled very nicely when fifth of five to Better Land. Should get every chance from the draw and looms as a definite winning chance.
Roughie: Yesterday’s Songs (Best Odds: $5.50) resumes here after winning a heat of the Winter Championship at Flemington, aided by an absolute peach from Bossy. Hasn’t raced since then, but he looked very sharp in a jump out last Friday at Flemington. The booking of Ollie first up is also a very good lead IMO, so definitely watch market moves.
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Race Nine (5:15pm) : Australian Defence Force Handicap (78) 1800m: Form Guide
Back Me: Going with the horse down the bottom, Steakandbearnaise (Best Odds: $5.00). He was well supported to win the Forbes Cup last time out, but unfortunately for his supporters, he just got too far back and left his run too late in order to make up the required ground. The Blinkers go on for the first time and Ollie on board from an inside…ticks the boxes to win here.
Big Danger: Clemo (Best Odds: $6.00) drops back in class after running over 2000m at Flemington last time out where he worked home okay without threatening when finishing seventh to Bagman, who franked the form by winning at his next start at the Valley. Back to 1800m should suit this horse, freshened up and Bossy did win on the horse four back. Definite threat.
Roughie: Tilla Bell Rings (Best Odds: $7.50) looks ready to show his best after running a beauty last Wednesday at William Hill Park where he made up good ground from the back inside Kelkea, but that horse proved a touch too good on the line. Rising a bit in grade here, but he has found decent form, and I think he can now hold it despite drawing terribly.
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BEST BET: Race Six Number 8 Miss Gunpowder
NEXT BEST: Race Three Number 3 Dig A Pony
VALUE: Race Five Number 1 Stoker
Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):
Leg One: 3, 5, 8
Leg Two: 1, 2, 7, 8
Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 9, 10, 17
Leg Four: 1, 2, 6, 9, 11, 13, 15
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All odds are subject to change. Odds listed are correct at the time of the latest update.
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